How our readers’ predictions match up with election results

voters voting
voters voting
Michael Appleton/Mayoral Photography Office

How our readers’ predictions match up with election results

Readers predicted some outcomes better than City & State did.
November 9, 2018

Our readers voted for who they believed would win in our unscientific polls on the most competitive New York House and state Senate races – and some of their predictions came true despite conflicting with City & State’s prognosis. Readers predicted Democrat Antonio Delgado’s win in Congressional District 19, a race City & State rated as a toss-up, and even foresaw Democrat Max Rose winning in Congressional District 11, an upset that differs from City & State’s prognosis that the race leaned Republican.

But there were a number of elections where readers were overly optimistic about Democrats’ prospects. As one example, 68 percent of our readers thought Liuba Grechen Shirley would beat Rep. Pete King in Congressional District 2, but in the end, she lost by a narrow margin, an outcome that matched City & State’s forecast.


HOUSE RACES:

Congressional District 1

lee-zeldin-perry-gershon.jpg

Lee Zeldin and Perry Gershon
Alt Text: 
Lee Zeldin and Perry Gershon
Title Text: 
Lee Zeldin and Perry Gershon
Description: 
Lee Zeldin and Perry Gershon
Image Credit: 
Photo courtesy U.S. House of Representatives; Perry Gershon for Congress

Results:
▉ Lee Zeldin (incumbent): 52.46%
▉ Perry Gershon (D): 45.01%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Perry Gershon 61%
▉ Lee Zeldin 39%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

Readers got this one wrong, and City & State got it right.

Congressional District 2

pete-king-liuba-grechen-shirley.jpg

Pete King and Liuba Grechen Shirley
Alt Text: 
Pete King and Liuba Grechen Shirley
Title Text: 
Pete King and Liuba Grechen Shirley
Description: 
Pete King and Liuba Grechen Shirley
Image Credit: 
Photo courtesy U.S. House of Representatives; Liuba Grechen Shirley for Congress

Results:
▉ Pete King (incumbent): 52.32%
▉ Liuba Grechen Shirley: 45.84%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Liuba Grechen Shirley 68%
▉ Pete King 32%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

Readers were overly optimistic about Grechen Shirley’s prospects, but City & State saw that coming.

Congressional District 11

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Dan Donovan and Max Rose
Alt Text: 
Dan Donovan and Max Rose
Title Text: 
Dan Donovan and Max Rose
Description: 
Dan Donovan and Max Rose
Image Credit: 
Photo courtesy U.S. House of Representatives; Max Rose for Congress

Results:
▉ Max Rose 52.15%
▉ Dan Donovan (incumbent) 46.08%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Max Rose 60%
▉ Dan Donovan 40%

City & State rating: Leans Republican

The readers predicted this upset, but rating the race as leans Republican was off target.

Congressional District 18

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Sean Patrick Maloney and James O'Donnell
Alt Text: 
Sean Patrick Maloney and James O'Donnell
Title Text: 
Sean Patrick Maloney and James O'Donnell
Description: 
Sean Patrick Maloney and James O'Donnell
Image Credit: 
Photo courtesy U.S. House of Representatives; James O'Donnell for Congress

Results:
▉ Sean Patrick Maloney (incumbent) 53.02%
▉ James O’Donnell 43.24%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Sean Patrick Maloney 89%
▉ James O’Donnell 11%

City & State rating: Likely Democrat

Everyone predicted this – but readers were overly optimistic about Maloney’s margin.

Congressional District 19

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John Faso and Antonio Delgado
Alt Text: 
John Faso and Antonio Delgado
Title Text: 
John Faso and Antonio Delgado
Description: 
John Faso and Antonio Delgado
Image Credit: 
Photo courtesy U.S. House of Representatives; Antonio Delgado for Congress

Results:
▉ Antonio Delgado 49.26%
▉ John Faso (incumbent) 46.42%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Antonio Delgado 80%
▉ John Faso 20%

City & State rating: Toss-Up

Readers guessed the winner, but it was fair to call it a toss-up.  

Congressional District 21

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Elise Stefanik and Tedra Cobb
Alt Text: 
Elise Stefanik and Tedra Cobb
Title Text: 
Elise Stefanik and Tedra Cobb
Description: 
Elise Stefanik and Tedra Cobb
Image Credit: 
Photos courtesy U.S. House of Representatives; Tedra Cobb for Congress

Results:
▉ Elise Stefanik (incumbent) 55.91%
▉ Tedra Cobb 41.2%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Elise Stefanik 57%
▉ Tedra Cobb 43%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

No surprise here – everyone predicted this outcome.

Congressional District 22

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Claudia Tenney and Anthony Brindisi
Alt Text: 
Claudia Tenney and Anthony Brindisi
Title Text: 
Claudia Tenney and Anthony Brindisi
Description: 
Claudia Tenney and Anthony Brindisi
Image Credit: 
Photo courtesy U.S. House of Representatives; Anthony Brindisi for Congress

Results:
▉ Anthony Brindisi 49.51%
▉ Claudia Tenney (incumbent) 48.97%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Anthony Brindisi 84%
▉ Claudia Tenney 16%

City & State rating: Toss-up

This race is currently too close to call and nobody is conceding until all of the ballots have been counted – it was fair to rate this one a toss-up.

Congressional District 23

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Tom Reed and Tracy Mitrano
Alt Text: 
Tom Reed and Tracy Mitrano
Title Text: 
Tom Reed and Tracy Mitrano
Description: 
Tom Reed and Tracy Mitrano
Image Credit: 
Photo courtesy U.S. House of Representatives; Tracy Mitrano for Congress

Results:
▉ Tom Reed (incumbent) 53.78%
▉ Tracy Mitrano 43.99%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Tom Reed 61%
▉ Tracy Mitrano 39%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

This result that didn’t surprise anybody, although readers were more bullish on Reed.

Congressional District 24

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John Katko and Dana Balter
Alt Text: 
John Katko and Dana Balter
Title Text: 
John Katko and Dana Balter
Description: 
John Katko and Dana Balter
Image Credit: 
Photo courtesy U.S. House of Representatives; Dana Balter for Congress

Results:
▉ John Katko (incumbent) 52.2%
▉ Dana Balter 46.08%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ John Katko 54%
▉ Dana Balter 46%

City & State rating: Leans Republican

Readers were spot on, and City & State also called this one.

Congressional District 27

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Chris Collins and Nate McMurray
Alt Text: 
Chris Collins and Nate McMurray
Title Text: 
Chris Collins and Nate McMurray
Description: 
Chris Collins and Nate McMurray
Image Credit: 
Photo courtesy U.S. House of Representatives; Nate McMurray for Congress

Results:
▉ Chris Collins (incumbent) 48.17%
▉ Nate McMurray 47.1%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Nate McMurray 77%
▉ Chris Collins (incumbent) 24%

City & State rating: Leans Republican

This race still hasn’t been called yet, although Collins is ahead. The readers were off-base here believing McMurray would win easily, while it turned out to be more of a toss-up.


STATE SENATE RACES:

State Senate District 3

DISTRICT3.jpg

Image Credit: 
Dean Murray for Senate; Monica Martinez for Senate

Results:
▉ Monica Martinez 50.22%
▉ Dean Murray 47.48%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Dean Murray 54%
▉ Monica Martinez 46%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

Here, both City & State and our readers called this one wrong.

State Senate District 4

DISTRICT4.jpg

Caption: 
Phil Boyle for state Senate; Louis D’Amaro for state Senate

Results:
▉ Phil Boyle (incumbent) 50.39%
▉ Louis D’Amaro 46.7%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Phil Boyle 66%
▉ Louis D’Amaro 34%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

Nobody was surprised by the final outcome, but it was closer than expected.

State Senate District 5

DISTRICT5.jpg

Image Credit: 
Carl Marcellino for state Senate; James Gaughran for State Senate

Results:
▉ James Gaughran 53.23%
▉ Carl Marcellino (incumbent) 44.73%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ James Gaughran 67%
▉ Carl Marcellino 34%

City & State rating: Toss-up

Readers were more optimistic about Gaughran’s support, while City & State was less sure.

State Senate District 6

DISTRICT6.jpg

Image Credit: 
Kemp Hannon for state Senate; Kevin Thomas for state Senate

Results:
▉ Kevin Thomas 49.24%
▉ Kemp Hannon (incumbent) 47.99%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Kemp Hannon 68%
▉ Kevin Thomas 32%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

Nobody predicted this upset of one of the longest-serving state legislators.  

State Senate District 7

DISTRICT7.jpg

Image Credit: 
Elaine Phillips for state Senate; Matt Roth

Results:
▉ Anna Kaplan 53.68%
▉ Elaine Phillips (incumbent) 44.53%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Anna Kaplan 56
▉ Elaine Phillips (incumbent) 44%

City & State rating: Toss-up

The readers called this one; the results weren’t as close as City & State’s rating predicted.  

State Senate District 8

DISTRICT8.jpg

Image Credit: 
John Brooks for state Senate; Jeff Pravato for State Senate

Results:
▉ John Brooks (incumbent) 53.01%
▉ Jeff Pravato 44.15%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ John Brooks 55%
▉ Jeff Pravato 45%

City & State rating: Toss-up

Readers believed Brooks would easily keep his seat, and he did.

State Senate District 9

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Todd Kaminsky and Francis Becker Jr.
Alt Text: 
Todd Kaminsky and Francis Becker Jr.
Title Text: 
Todd Kaminsky and Francis Becker Jr.
Description: 
Todd Kaminsky and Francis Becker Jr.

Results:
▉ Todd Kaminsky (incumbent) 60.35%
▉ Francis Becker Jr. 37.51%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Todd Kaminsky 79%
▉ Francis Becker Jr. 21%

City & State rating: Likely Democrat

We all called this one. Readers picked the winner, but not the margin.

State Senate District 22

DISTRICT22.jpg

Image Credit: 
Martin Golden for State Senate; Andrew Gounardes for State Senate

Results:
▉ Andrew Gounardes 49.79 %
▉ Martin Golden (incumbent) 47.99 %

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Andrew Gounardes 54%
▉ Martin Golden 46%

City & State rating: Lean Republican

Gounardes has declared victory over his opponent, an eight-term incumbent, but Golden has refused to concede thus far. If Gounardes is the winner, this is another race the readers picked the right winner but City & State predicted the opposite.    

State Senate District 39

DISTRICT39.jpg

Image Credit: 
Citizens for Tom Basile; Skoufis for NY

Results:
▉ James Skoufis 52.11%
▉ Tom Basile 44.91%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ James Skoufis 70%
▉ Tom Basile 31%

City & State rating: Toss-up

Readers predicted the final outcome – but not the final margin – despite City & State predicting a toss-up.

State Senate District 40

Results:
▉ Peter Harckham 49.86%
▉ Terrence Murphy (incumbent) 48.01%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Terrence Murphy 54%
▉ Peter Harckham 46%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

City & State and readers were both off.

State Senate District 41

DISTRICT41.jpg

Image Credit: 
Sue Serino for state Senate; Karen Smythe for state Senate

Results:
▉ Sue Serino (incumbent) 49.91%
▉ Karen Smythe 48.02%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Sue Serino 54%
▉ Karen Smythe 46%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

Smythe has not conceded. Regardless, this was more of a toss-up than expected.

State Senate District 42

DISTRICT42.jpg

Image Credit: 
Ann Rabbitt for Senate; Jen Metzger for Senate

Results:
▉ Jen Metzger 50.08%
▉ Ann Rabbitt 47.45%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Jen Metzger 56%
▉ Ann Rabbitt 44%

City & State rating: Lean Republican

The readers picked the right winner, while City & State got it wrong.

State Senate District 43

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Daphne Jordan and Aaron Gladd
Alt Text: 
Daphne Jordan and Aaron Gladd
Title Text: 
Daphne Jordan and Aaron Gladd
Description: 
Daphne Jordan and Aaron Gladd

Results:
▉ Daphne Jordan 52.14%
▉ Aaron Gladd 44.23%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Daphne Jordan 51%
▉ Aaron Gladd 49%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

Everyone expected Jordan to win, and she did.

State Senate District 50

robert-antonacci-john-mannion.jpg

Robert Antonacci vs. John Mannion
Alt Text: 
Robert Antonacci vs. John Mannion
Title Text: 
Robert Antonacci vs. John Mannion
Description: 
Robert Antonacci vs. John Mannion

Results:
▉ Robert Antonacci 50.42%
▉ John Mannion 47.99%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Robert Antonacci 56%
▉ John Mannion 44%

City & State rating: Lean Republican

Readers and City & State expected this outcome.

Jordan Laird
is an editorial intern at City & State.
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