What we know about the state budget so far

We are hours away from the deadline for a state budget and New York political observers are sitting on pins and needles, eager to see what new programs will be funded in what is expected to be a $150 billion-plus spending plan.

Since we’re all sitting on our thumbs waiting on the three men in a room – Gov. Andrew Cuomo, Senate Majority Leader John Flanagan and Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie – to strike a deal, I reached out to Ashley Hupfl, City & State’s Albany reporter, to see what she’s hearing about some of the budget’s key tenets.

Here’s our exchange below:

Nick Powell: As of now, what are you hearing about what two of the governor’s top priorities - the $15 minimum wage rollout and paid family leave - will look like?

Ashley Hupfl: Right now, the minimum wage proposal is still facing some opposition in the state Senate Republican Conference, and discussions are still ongoing. One of the latest “deals” being floated is that the upstate minimum wage, currently $9 an hour, would rise 70 cents annually until it reaches $12.50 in 2021. At that point in time, the state Division of the Budget and state Department of Labor would conduct a study to determine the economic impact on upstate and decide whether the minimum wage should continue to rise to $15 an hour. There seems to be unanimous agreement that the minimum wage for New York City will rise to $15 in three years and six years for downstate.

Paid family leave appears to be included in the tentative budget agreements, but final details have been scarce. Both the Assembly and state Senate Republicans support paid family leave, however state Senate Republicans have been pushing modifications to ease the financial burden from the program off of employers.

NP: The Wall Street Journal reported recently that Cuomo was wielding the state commission on pay raises for legislators as a cudgel to get an on-time budget. Is there any indication that this is a serious threat, and does the governor even have the ability to influence this commission?

AH: While speaking to reporters, the governor did not outright threaten to use the pay commission as leverage for an on-time budget, he only said that since lawmakers are making a case for a pay raise, their performance – such as passing an on-time budget – matters. That said, there has been criticism in the past about the task forces or commissions that Cuomo has created and allegedly controlled in order to get the decision he would prefer. The state Senate, Assembly and the governor each are allowed one representative each on the commission’s panel, so the governor does not have complete control over the verdict.

NP: Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie indicated that the three leaders had “cleared the hurdle” regarding Medicaid cuts, though it sounds like they still want to find $250 million in savings somehow. Does this mean New York City is still at risk of shouldering some of that burden?

AH: Heastie told reporters on Wednesday that the $250 million cut for Medicaid is still included in the budget, however he said he was satisfied the savings would not hurt localities. Cuomo has stressed the need for savings for the Medicaid program and Heastie has agreed savings can be found. Both Heastie and Cuomo have repeatedly maintained that the cuts will not be a financial burden to New York City.

NP: Senate Republicans wanted a 25 percent tax cut for middle class New Yorkers in the budget. As it stands now, what does the tax cut plan look like?

AH: There has not been much discussion on the state Senate Republicans’ tax cut proposal, however there appears to be a tentative agreement for a $1 billion income tax cut for middle-class workers. Married couples who file joint tax returns with incomes under $300,000 would be eligible for the tax cut. Cuomo told reporters Wednesday a “framework” of a deal had been reached on the tax cut and both the state Senate and Assembly appear happy with the agreement.

NP: For all the focus on transparency and ethics at the top of the year it appears from the outside looking in that the budget process is still as opaque as ever. Has anything appreciably changed in how business is conducted during budget negotiations since last year?

AH: Budget negotiations have not changed in the slightest when it comes to transparency – in fact, one could possibly argue it’s gotten worse. City & State last week reported budget negotiations were taking place secretly at the governor’s mansion, not at the state Capitol like usual. The first leaders’ meeting made public to the press only took place this week. As usual, reporters remained staked out for hours waiting for leaders to give short, vague answers once they left the meetings. However, Cuomo did conduct one press briefing (though TV cameras and photographers were not allowed in) and one gaggle this week to update the press.