Who’s going to be the next New York City Council speaker?

The New York City Council speaker race can be a difficult contest to try to predict six months out. You’d be a fool to try doing so four years out.

Call us fools, then.

Could the next speaker be Virginia Maloney, the council member repping the East Side of Manhattan and a close ally of current Speaker Julie Menin? Or would a push for another white speaker from a similar swath of wealthy Manhattan fall flat?

After progressives in the council failed to elevate one of their own last time around, could they have a better shot this time – potentially helped along by Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who at this very early juncture looks likely to run for and win reelection? Perhaps Kayla Santosuosso in Bay Ridge, or Elsie Encarnacion in East Harlem?

Or what about someone from the Bronx, which traditionally works with Queens to exert influence in the race, like Justin Sanchez, a progressive and Menin ally who has a high-profile gig in his first year as Sanitation Committee chair?

In surveying some current members, former members and outside political consultants, a handful of names continually surfaced for potential speaker candidates in 2029, including Maloney, Santosuosso, Encarnacion and Sanchez. Other names included Ty Hankerson – a plausible candidate for Queens County’s support who could follow in the footsteps of his old boss, former Speaker Adrienne Adams – and fellow Queens Council Member Shanel Thomas-Henry. Others include Harvey Epstein and the only just-elected Carl Wilson – also both white Manhattanites.

The City Council will see a huge amount of turnover in 2029, with more than two-thirds of the body’s membership reaching their term limits, and only 14 current members eligible to run for reelection. The next City Council speaker is highly likely to emerge from that class of probable returners, but not guaranteed to. Council Member Gale Brewer, despite having served in the City Council previously, was technically a newly elected member in 2021 when she mounted a campaign for speaker, and Menin briefly floated a run for speaker when she was first elected in the same year.

Some see the field as wide open as those 14 members, positing that it’s early enough for any of them to start positioning themselves for the race.

But the unknowns are plentiful, including what the actual electorate of 51 members voting for speaker will look like. Barring a red tsunami in 2029, the list of potential speakers probably does not include Republican Council Member Frank Morano, or even conservative-to-moderate Democrats Phil Wong and Susan Zhuang, who would not be popular picks among the majority-Democratic institution.

THE POTENTIAL RETURNERS

Big speaker energy

Virginia Maloney 

Kayla Santosuosso

Elsie Encarnacion

Justin Sanchez 

Keeping our eyes on you

Shanel Thomas-Henry

Ty Hankerson

Harvey Epstein 

Carl Wilson 

Not on the radar (yet)

Yusef Salaam

Shirley Aldebol

Chris Banks 

Not going to happen (Conservative Dems)

Susan Zhuang 

Simcha Felder 

Phil Wong 

Never going to happen (Republican)

Frank Morano