Who’s going to be the next New York governor?

Roughly six years ago, some young left-wing activists half-seriously began a shadow campaign for state Sen. Jessica Ramos to run for governor. Well, a lot has changed since then.

Four years is a lifetime in politics – and 20 years is practically unfathomable. But that’s not stopping City & State from trying to check our crystal ball about the future of the governorship.

Even if Gov. Kathy Hochul runs again in 2030 (provided she wins this year and in four years), New York’s first grandma governor may not be itching to run when she’s 75 in 2034 after more than three terms in office. In either case, it will have been two decades since New York had a wide-open race for governor. After Hochul, it truly could be anyone’s race. And we’ll be waiting with the popcorn.

City & State talked with over a dozen political observers to get their take on who could be on deck.

The big ones

Some names do loom large, starting with New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who shocked the political world with his victory last year and swift rise in national prominence. Democratic consultant Yvette Buckner said he “could be a strong contender” for governor in the future, though she noted “history suggests that transitioning between the city and state’s top executive roles is no easy feat.”

State Attorney General Letitia James naturally came up in numerous conversations. The popular statewide official also has a national profile combating the Trump administration. And she was the talk of the town in 2021 when she briefly ran for governor. But James has also been in elected office for a long time, and several years down the line could choose to retire.

All positions under the sun come up when Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez gets mentioned, and governor is no exception. Although national observers have spoken about her 2028 presidential and U.S. Senate possibilities, running New York first could provide invaluable executive experience for the young lawmaker. Plus, unlike New York City mayor, there is a historical track record of New York governors going on to the White House.

Democratic consultant Ryan Adams also said a run from House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries “would reshape the entire field,” and not to discount the prospect. “He’s built real national credibility as House minority leader, he knows how to operate in high-stakes environments and Albany starts to look like a more compelling stage for someone with his ambitions and his profile for even higher office,” Adams told City & State.

The members of Congress

Any number of New York’s members of Congress could have gubernatorial aspirations in the near future. Rep. Ritchie Torres already flirted with challenging Hochul before abandoning the prospect earlier this year. The 38-year-old elected official is clearly ambitious and has plenty of time to make a real run.

In the Hudson Valley, several observers mentioned Rep. Pat Ryan as a future prospect. Having won a swing district as a relative moderate who nonetheless has flexed some of his left-wing muscles alongside Ocasio-Cortez, Ryan could appeal to his party’s base as well as independents. Plus, he already has executive experience as Ulster County executive.

If he survives his primary this year, Rep. Dan Goldman could shift his sights to Albany, given both his personal wealth and growing statewide profile. He previously announced a campaign for state attorney general in 2021 until Letitia James decided to seek reelection.

The upstate mayors

Another Buffalonian could be in the cards for governor, according to some observers. No stranger to Albany from his days in the state Senate, Sean Ryan is gathering executive experience as mayor of the state’s second-biggest city. But he has a lot on his plate over the next four years, starting with a rather dire fiscal situation in Buffalo that could make or break his future ambitions.

Marc Cohen, vice president of government affairs at O’Donnell & Associates, suggested former Syracuse Mayor Ben Walsh, who served as an independent and was recently term-limited, has ample opportunity to seek higher office.

The state legislators

Numerous state legislators have been named as gubernatorial contenders. Several people mentioned state Sen. James Skoufis, with whom City & State has previously discussed the prospect as far back as Somos in November. “If I’m still in politics 20 years from now, someone please make sure that I have my head checked,” Skoufis told City & State last week, adding he’s “flattered,” but happy in the Senate.

One person mentioned Assembly Member Brian Cunningham, who made no secret of his desire to be Hochul’s running mate earlier this year – so why not governor? “A few more years in this place and understanding the state more, perhaps it’s something that I would consider,” Cunningham told City & State. “Obviously nothing in the next four years, but 20 years is a long time.”

Other names that got thrown into the mix include state Sens. Zellnor Myrie, who ran for New York City mayor, Andrew Gounardes and Julia Salazar. Assembly Members Michaelle Solages, Jessica González-Rojas (currently running for state Senate), Micah Lasher and Alex Bores (both running for Congress) also received mentions.

The New York City officials 

Mamdani isn’t the only New York City elected who could be in the mix. While acknowledging it's still early, several observers mentioned New York City Council Member Chi Ossé as one to watch. The Gen Z lawmaker’s charisma, ambition and his popularity among the surging left is positioning him for advancement.

On the other end of the spectrum, former Council Speaker Adrienne Adams could be a contender now that she’s Hochul’s running mate. After all, even though things didn’t work out for Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado this year, the No. 2 in the state is a natural consideration – whether through election or ascension.

The Republicans

Democrats may largely control New York, but if 2022 proved anything, it’s that the right Republican could still be a viable contender for statewide office. The name on most people’s minds is Rep. Mike Lawler. He openly weighed running against Hochul this year before choosing to defend his highly competitive House seat. With his track record of flipping Democratic districts, Lawler is viewed as one of the strongest contenders for Republicans to win back the governorship. 

One observer pointed to Suffolk County District Attorney Ray Tierney. An independent who aligned himself with Republicans to win the position in 2021, Tierney surprised many when he unseated Democrat Tim Sini. Now, Tierney has successfully prosecuted a serial killer who haunted Long Island for decades, years after the case was thought to have gone cold. Perfect campaign fodder.