Wild, Wild North: The Race to Replace Rep. Bill Owens

When Rep. Bill Owens announced his retirement in mid-January, a wave of political speculation quickly swept through the North Country. 

On the day Owens, who has represented the hotly contested 21st Congressional District since he won a 2009 special election, announced he would be leaving the House of Representatives to spend more time with his family, party insiders on both sides of the aisle tossed around the names of possible successors for the swing seat like Frisbees. 

Nearly two months later, the speculation hasn’t stopped. 

As of the first week of March, three candidates led the pack of potential hopefuls. At the top of the Republicans’ list are newcomer Elise Stefanik and Matt Doheny, who twice challenged Owens, losing by fewer than 2 percentage points in 2012 against the incumbent after falling short against him in 2010 by only approximately 2,000 votes. On the Democratic side is another first-timer: Aaron Woolf. 

For district watchers, it is anybody’s race. 

Stefanik, arguably the front-runner, reportedly met with Republican billionaire Paul Singer recently and has the support of a slew of local Republican committees and national figures like Rep. Paul Ryan. 

In January she said she was focused on securing the Republican, Conservative and Independence lines. But one insider said it is possible that Doheny, a strong wild card candidate, will take the Conservative and Independence lines—he already has the latter’s endorsement—if Stefanik gets the Republican nod, thus splitting the party. 

One GOP insider said Doheny was surprised that county Republican committee chairs did not jump ship from Stefanik to back him instead when he made a late entry into the race in February. The source said the chairs seemed to think Doheny had already had his opportunities to win, and that this cycle it was time for someone new. 

That appraisal also seems to be germane to the Conservative line. State chairman Michael Long has a track record of sticking by the candidate he favors, and as such he may be leaning toward backing Stefanik. Long said a decision will not by made by the state executive committee until April. While some county Conservative leaders have thrown their support behind Doheny, Long said the fact that Stefanik has been active for the past six months gives her a leg up in the contest. 

While Doheny has high name recognition, Woolf, a relatively unknown Brooklyn filmmaker who splits his time between New York City and Essex County, has already garnered support from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The 21st District race, with Woolf’s name attached as the Democratic candidate, was recently given the designation of “emerging” by the DCCC. 

Being largely unfamiliar to voters, especially in such an expansive district, could pose a serious obstacle to Woolf’s candidacy. One Democratic insider seemed apprehensive about his chances. 

“You’ll hear grumbling from the chattering class about him not being ‘out there,’ ” the insider said. “I think what people don’t understand is he was thrown into this. … Elise and Matt had time to prepare and plan and be deliberate about how they announced. [Woolf] was just thrown out there. … Everyone is still in wait-and-see mode: See if he can raise money, see if he can be effective on the campaign trail.” 

Of course, all of the candidates face the challenge of campaigning across a 12-county district that is geographically the largest east of the Mississippi River. 

While Owens said the geography presents primarily an issue in terms of canvassing the district on a daily basis—“You can’t visit with as many people as you would like to because the distances between things are so great,” he said—it also has created a unique political structure. Owens said the district is filled with “Rockefeller Republicans and Reagan Democrats” who have differing focuses from region to region. In the Watertown area the focus is on the Fort Drum Army base; in the Plattsburgh area, it’s about Canadian trade, Owens said: In the Adirondacks, tourism takes precedence and in the Glens Falls area, the focus is on medical manufacturing and paper mills. 

“But ultimately the question that the average citizen is asking me is, ‘How do you continue to grow jobs in our community?’ ” the congressman said. 

The Affordable Care Act is also an issue that could be a factor in the coming election for the swing voters who helped put Owens in office. But Owens said jobs and the economy were the focus of a telephone town hall conducted late last month. Voters polled pegged those two concerns as paramount more than 40 percent of the time, while healthcare registered in the teens, he said. 

With narrow outcomes in the last three elections— two regular elections and the 2009 special election— appealing to voters on both sides of the political fence could be key for Republicans and Democrats alike. Owens said that moderate voters in the district will be seeking candidates sincere about following through on their centrist campaign pledges. 

It’s too early to tell how close the margin of victory will be this time around, but the Democratic insider argued that the national Republican model is not necessarily well tailored toward winning over North Country voters. 

“If you look at [former Rep.] John McHugh and what he represented, labor supported him. If you look at [former Assemblywoman] Dede Scozzafava, she was a prominent Republican loved by the party but also loved by labor,” the source said. “Those types of people are not in existence anymore and are being run out of the party. Elise and Matt are not Dede or John McHugh.” 

The positions of the Republican candidates could be swayed by where the bulk of their campaign contributions comes from. While Doheny historically has had deep pockets, Stefanik has shown flashes of an ability to raise money from powerful places. Her trip to Colorado to garner support from Singer could be an indicator of things to come. 

“It’s a group of donors that are looking to take a different approach toward things,” the Republican insider said. “I’ve been hearing that Paul Singer and some of those guys are looking to have more control [of] how the money is spent in terms of where it’s going, and not just let it go business as usual, because they have not been happy with the party’s direction.”