New York City

The polls got it wrong again! Or did they?

The time lag between polling and the congressional primary may have caused the discrepancy.

Person casting a vote

Person casting a vote Alexandru Nika/Shutterstock

In the aftermath of the 2016 presidential election, many people – including President Donald Trump – wondered why the polls were wrong. Of course, some argued that the national polls weren’t wrong, because Hillary Clinton did win the popular vote by around 2 percent of the vote, as many outlets predicted.

Nonetheless, the stigma against surveying voters seeped into the collective American psyche: You can’t trust the polls.

Tuesday’s congressional primaries are unlikely to assuage poll-averse New York voters. Although there wasn’t much local polling for these congressional races, the polls that were available did not seem to have much bearing on the actual results.

In the 11th Congressional District, an April poll by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee showed that Michael Grimm was ahead of incumbent Rep. Dan Donovan in the Republican primary by 10 percentage points. A poll from NY1/Siena College released in early June again showed that Grimm had a 10-point lead. However, Donovan won the race in a blowout, with 64 percent of the vote to Grimm’s 36 percent.

The disparity between the poll results and the election results may have to do with the polls’ timing and origin. The first poll, conducted months before the election, was conducted by the DCCC. Grimm is a convicted felon with a fiery personality, and many in the Democratic Party believed that the seat currently held by Donovan would be considerably more winnable if Grimm were the Republican nominee.

The NY1/Siena poll was conducted three weeks before the race, on the from of May 29 through June 1. On May 30, midway through the poll, President Donald Trump endorsed Donovan. Trump is very popular on Staten Island, where he won with 56 percent of the vote in 2016. The NY1/Siena poll also showed that 82 percent of likely Republican voters in the district were favorable of the president. Steve Greenberg, a pollster for Siena College, said that the poll was demonstrated the opinion of likely Republican voters three weeks before the election, but that it changed over time.

“A poll is nothing more than a snapshot in time,” Greenberg said. “Go back to what we saw in that poll: Trump was loved, and voters said that they thought Grimm would do a better job of working with the president than Donovan. But the president came out and said, ‘My guy is Donovan.”

Two debates were also held after the poll was released. Trump’s endorsement plus the continuing campaign efforts likely had an effect on voters’ decisions in the remaining three weeks of the race.

A Spectrum News/Siena College poll for the Democratic primary in the 24th Congressional District, conducted two weeks before the election, showed Juanita Perez-Williams up ten percentage points above Dana Balter. Perez Williams, the former candidate for mayor in Syracuse, had the backing of the DCCC. Balter was supported by Democratic county leaders.

Balter drubbed Perez Williams in the election, earning 62 percent of the vote to Perez Williams’ 37 percent.

The poll was conducted before Perez Williams and Balter participated in their only televised debate. Perez Williams also may have had the name recognition from her mayoral run, but she didn’t have the infrastructure. She jumped into the race two weeks before petitioning for the primary closed. Meanwhile, Balter ran more of a grassroots campaign, that began as part of a group of left-leaning activists who were trying to speak to Rep. John Katko, who she now will face in November.

“There was a lot of campaigning still to do where you had candidates who were both unknown to large swaths of the electorate,” Greenberg said, adding that the two weeks between the poll and the election allowed voters to make decisions about their candidates.

Voter turnout was also higher in 2018 than in 2016 congressional primaries, with 25 percent of Democrats in the district voting this year, as compared to 9 percent two years ago.

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.