These state lawmakers just won New York City primaries. Who could replace them in Albany?

With ranked choice voting results hitting this week in New York City, Democratic primaries around the state are officially over (with only the final certification left). That means the time has come for the political jockeying around replacing members of the state Legislature poised to hold new positions to begin. The general election still looms in November for most, if not all, of these candidates, so those plotting to run for legislative seats should probably keep their powder dry for the time being. But Democrats are either effectively guaranteed to win their races or the heavy favorites, so future candidates for their seats will likely have their fingers hovering over the “send” button for their own announcements on election night this fall.

Unlike in New York City special elections, where everyone runs as an independent, in state special elections, candidates are selected by leaders of the local Democratic and Republican parties. While someone could still run as an independent, the hand-selected Democratic candidate is usually guaranteed to win. So the race is more to garner support from party leaders rather than from the electorate – a process that good government and anti-corruption groups have long denounced. 

But that’s the system New York has now, and with a number of seats set to open up in January, interested candidates are probably beginning to write their elevator pitches.

State Senate District 47 (Brad Hoylman-Sigal)

After emerging victorious in the Democratic primary for Manhattan borough president, state Sen. Brad Hoylman-Sigal is basically assured to win the position in November. He technically has a Republican opponent who he still needs to beat, but like many races in New York City, the primary generally serves as the deciding contest for Manhattan borough president. That means his seat in the state Senate will likely be up for grabs come November. And even before Hoylman-Sigal announced his own campaign, speculation had already started last year about the many people who may seek to replace him. 

City & State previously reported that Assembly Member Tony Simone plans to run for the upper chamber if Hoylman-Sigal wins the borough president race. That decision would then open up his own seat in the Assembly, triggering another special election and more political musical chairs. The same thing would happen if longtime Upper West Side Assembly Member Linda Rosenthal opted to run for Hoylman-Sigal’s seat. Hoylman-Sigal’s district also overlaps with Assembly Member Micah Lasher’s district, though Lasher is less likely to run as he is only a freshman in the lower chamber right now. Local City Council members like Erik Bottcher may also be in the mix, either for Hoylman-Sigal’s state Senate seat or an Assembly seat that opens up after the special election.

State Senate District 61 (Sean Ryan)

As expected, state Sen. Sean Ryan cruised to victory in the Democratic primary for Buffalo mayor. As he’s the favorite to win in November, Ryan’s seat in the state Senate will likely become vacant at the start of the new year. Discussions about who could take his place have already started. The Western New York contest is right in Gov. Kathy Hochul’s backyard, so it’s well within the realm of possibility that she could try to influence whom Democrats pick to run.

One of the potential candidates is also one of the leaders who would determine the name on the ballot. Erie County Democratic Party Chair Jeremy Zellner could ditch his day job at the local board of elections in favor of trips to Albany – and he’d be tough to compete against in the behind-the-scenes race to get nominated. But Assembly Member Jonathan Rivera, who co-chaired Ryan’s campaign for mayor, could seek the seat as well, elevating himself from the lower chamber just like Ryan.

Assembly District 36 (Zohran Mamdani)

A victory for Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani is perhaps the most tenuous of the bunch here, even if his strong ranked choice vote showing and position as the Democratic nominee makes him the favorite in November. Still, there’s a high likelihood that his seat in The People’s Republic of Astoria will need a new occupant come January. Western Queens is a stronghold for democratic socialists and other left-wing progressives. But a special election would offer a rare opportunity for the Queens Democratic Party to once again exert control over the seat, which has been in DSA’s hands ever since Mamdani’s 2020 defeat of then-incumbent Assembly Member Aravella Simotas. Given the tension between party leaders in Queens and DSA, which has run a number of insurgent campaigns attempting to knock out incumbents, the county Democratic Party is unlikely to nominate the DSA candidate of choice. 

Who that candidate may be is not totally clear right now. Council Member Tiffany Cabán, who is backed by the DSA, overlaps with most of the district, but Democratic leaders are unlikely to tap her for the seat. It would make sense for the party to nominate a strong progressive who could appeal to voters who have elected multiple democratic socialists and perform well in a primary later next year when the DSA will surely run its own candidate. A well-chosen special election nominee could offer the Queens Democrats a foothold in the base of DSA power.

Assembly District 74 (Harvey Epstein) 

Assembly Member Harvey Epstein came out on top in a crowded primary for New York City Council District 2, and once he wins the general election in November, he’ll no longer have to take an Amtrak up to Albany every week. That means someone else will need to represent the Lower East Side district in the Assembly. This is another race where there may not be a clear frontrunner for Democrats to pick. It’s always possible that term-limited Council Member Carlina Rivera – whom Epstein will replace in the City Council – could essentially swap seats with Epstein and take over the state legislative position. But that’s hardly a guarantee. The Council race’s second-place finisher, Sarah Batchu, could also turn her gaze to the Assembly and attempt to court party support in the special election. And of course, one can never rule out Carlos Danger (Anthony Weiner), who may be hoping that the third time’s the charm to get back into office.