New York City

Trump’s surprising gains in NYC

Improvement among Latino voters boosted the president in the Bronx.

Donald Trump on October 30, 2020.

Donald Trump on October 30, 2020. Official White House Photo by Tia Dufour

President Donald Trump may be widely reviled by New York City residents, but he made surprising gains in the 2020 election – including in the Bronx, the poorest and least-white of the five boroughs. And that may be a warning to Democrats about the state of the party and its appeal to working-class and middle-class voters, even voters of color.

According to a study conducted by the CUNY Center for Urban Research, Trump received a somewhat larger portion of Latino voters in the South Bronx, a predominantly low-income area, than he did in 2016. The Wall Street Journal reported Trump, “more than doubled his vote in each of three state Assembly districts bordering the Harlem River that are considered Democratic bastions.”

The trend may be most pronounced in the Bronx, but it is not unique to the borough. Trump gained more votes this year than in 2016 in every borough except for Manhattan, thanks to increased turnout and improvement in the president’s performance among voters without a college degree of all races. 

Although former Vice President Joe Biden won Black, Latino and Asian American voters by wide margins, his advantage was less than the previous Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s was in 2016. As the Brookings Institution noted, “The Black Democratic margin—while still high, at 75%—was the lowest in a presidential election since 2004. The Latino or Hispanic and Asian American Democratic margins of 33% and 27% were the lowest since the 2004 and 2008 elections, respectively.”

On the flipside, the Republican candidate’s weaker performance among college-educated voters explains his decreased vote share in Manhattan. 

Trump’s support in New York City increased despite the fact that the Trump administration has expressed disdain for New York City through spats with Mayor Bill de Blasio and Gov. Andrew Cuomo, even threatening to withhold federal aid. Trump has also demonized immigrants from Latin America, such as by falsely maligning them as “rapists,” and he has pushed for stricter immigration restrictions with harsher enforcement. 

One explanation cited by experts is the large number of small business owners among Hispanic New Yorkers. Nationally, business owners tend to favor the Republican Party, as they are often skeptical of government regulation. Small business owners in the Bronx may be more aligned with Trump’s support for easing restrictions meant to contain the spread of the new coronavirus, which have hurt the bottom line of many retail establishments. “As the governor and mayor have taken precautions for the health of residents, the businesses are now stuck with rent payments that were already overdue or shortening their staffs,” said Bronx Chamber of Commerce President Lisa Sorin. “And there’s no middle ground for them.”

To be sure, Democrats remain dominant in New York City, including the Bronx.Biden is ahead of Trump by a more than two-to-one margin in every borough other than Staten Island, with a 66-point lead in the Bronx. As more absentee ballots are counted are counted, Biden’s margins will grow. Although precise voter demographic data is hard to come by, with the large number of mail-in ballots and the implementation of early voting this year, New York exit polls showed 72% of Latino voters in the state went for Biden. 

There were notable wins for the Bronx Democratic Party during this election cycle, including New York City Council Member Ritchie Torres winning election to replace retiring Rep. Jose Serrano. Torres, who is Afro-Latino, will be tied with fellow New Yorker Mondaire Jones of the Hudson Valley as the first openly gay Black member of Congress. 

Bronx Democrats say that rather than cutting into the GOP’s limited appeal to Latino voters, they may just need to do a better job of mobilizing their voters and bringing in new ones. Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr. told the Journal that the party was unable to do its usual in-person voter mobilization efforts this year because of COVID-19. 

“When it comes to us being able to not only mobilize people, but also organize people locally, we need to really be hyper-focused on what are the issues that are concerning Latinos and not using them as a monolith,” said Amanda Farias, a candidate for City Council in district 18 in the Bronx. 

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.