How will Canada’s new prime minister affect New York?

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney won an election victory by running against President Donald Trump and the United States, but it remains to be seen what his defensive posture will mean for New York.

The trade war between America and our friendly neighbors to the north has already had significant impacts on New York industries from agriculture to manufacturing, and if the situation spirals, especially following Carney’s meeting with President Donald Trump on Tuesday, it could make things even worse for the state. But Chris Kirkey, director of the Center for the Study of Canada and Institute on Québec Studies at SUNY Plattsburgh, believes that Carney won’t let things escalate.

“Mark Carney is committed to trade with New York and trade with the United States,” Kirkey told City & State. “He's not a protectionist. He's one who believes in the value of markets, but particularly free markets.” 

The real question is if he’ll moderate his stance on America now that he isn’t actively campaigning, assuming that Trump backs off his threats to forcibly annex Canada. There is still time to reverse course in many sectors, but tourism season is right around the corner. Even if Carney does manage to mend fences and repair the way that some Canadians are beginning to view the U.S. and New York, much of the economic damage is done. 

“They've already made their plans for summer, but in the North Country, maybe those patterns will return,” Assembly Member Billy Jones said. “But people, they're already booking what they're going to do for the summer, and as we saw over COVID, when the border was closed for almost two years for everything but commercial traffic and medical traffic, people, they can't just change their plans on a dime.”

Jones said that Canadian officials understand the situation that New York is in, but new policies in response to the trade war, like limiting barriers for interprovincial commerce and labor supply, are already in motion. Gov. Kathy Hochul and other governors in the northeast also invited Canadian officials to the U.S. in a bid to strengthen cross border ties.

Farmers have been hammered by tariffs on agricultural products, and Rep. Josh Riley, who represents a large rural district in upstate New York, is hopeful that Carney will recognize the situation and negotiate for a more equitable trade agreement. 

“My hope is that this summer, when the United States, Mexico and Canada trade agreement is up for review, there's an opportunity there to renegotiate some parts of it in a way that does two things: first, provide certainty and support for Upstate New York's farmers, and then second, brings good manufacturing jobs back home,” Riley said. 

Due to the cultural ties between upstate New York and Canada, there is a hope among some that Carney’s leadership will mean a commitment to Canadian independence without sacrificing the cultural ties that cross the northern border. In many cases, what’s good for New York is also good for Canada and vice versa. 

“I think New York has to just once again remind folks that this relationship is really a positive one for New York state,” Kirkey said.