Elise Stefanik says Hochul is raising the commuter tax. She’s wrong (for now)

Train nerds rejoiced on Monday when Gov. Kathy Hochul announced that the Metro-North would expand to Albany, starting with one round-trip train a day. Rep. Elise Stefanik was less enthusiastic. “HOCHUL RAISES TAXES ON NEW YORKERS AS SHE EXPANDS COMMUTER TAX TO CAPITAL DISTRICT,” the expected Republican gubernatorial candidate declared on X in response to the news. 

This was not true. Although Hochul is expanding Metro-North’s service area, she is not expanding the Metropolitan Transportation Authority commuter zone area that is impacted by the payroll mobility tax. But that doesn’t mean that she can’t (or won’t) in the future.

“Once again Elise Stefanik rushes to criticize without checking the facts,” a spokesperson for Hochul told Watertown Daily Times reporter Alex Gault.

The payroll mobility tax, also referred to the commuter tax, has a politically fraught history for Democrats. Right now, 12 downstate counties (including the five boroughs) are subject to the tax. Highly unpopular in the suburbs, an increase to the tax rate cost Democrats control of the state Senate in 2010. A more recent increase proposed by Hochul to help fund the MTA faced intense opposition from Democratic lawmakers on Long Island and in the Hudson Valley, resulting in a rate increase only for New York City.

Any changes to the payroll tax, including the expansion of counties subject to it, would require legislative action. So the Monday announcement from Hochul did not automatically impose any new taxes on businesses north of Dutchess County. But that doesn't mean the governor couldn't attempt to expand the tax in the future.

Hochul ruled out the prospect of a commuter tax expansion on Monday. “We are not doing that,” the governor told reporters. “No, in fact, this is actually going to be revenue neutral for us to be able to provide this service and still collect the fare that we're planning on.” 

That’s not enough for Stefanik, who stood by her original tweet even though no new taxes have taken effect and the governor specifically said she does not plan to subject upstate counties to MTA payroll taxes. “Kathy Hochul has a record of saying she will not increase taxes, and then immediately raising taxes,” Stefanik told City & State. “She did specifically on transportation issues. She did so on congestion pricing. And this is another scheme.” Hochul famously paused congestion pricing shortly before its original implementation, only to turn it back on after the 2024 election.

A spokesperson for Hochul did not respond when asked whether the governor would rule out ever expanding the tax. However, the prospect is unlikely at least in the next year given her reelection in 2026. Hochul has repeatedly expressed her dislike of raising taxes. And any attempt to expand the tax to upstate counties would face fierce opposition from lawmakers in the region.