Hochul leads Blakeman by 20 points in latest Siena poll

The primaries are over, so it’s time to shift gears into general election mode. And a new Siena University poll has Gov. Kathy Hochul leading Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman with over 50% of the vote for the first time since the start of the year.

The poll conducted between June 17 and June 23 had Hochul up 52%-32% against Blakeman among registered voters surveyed. That’s up from 49%-33% a Siena poll in April pegged the contest at. This is also the first time since February that Hochul cracked the 50% threshold in race polling. 

Siena surveyed 1,120 registered New Yorkers with a 3.6 percentage point margin of error. It had Hochul winning among self-identified moderates with 53% of polled voters, as well as among 49% suburbanites surveyed, a plurality. She easily won New York City with 63% of voters polled saying they’d back her, although upstate was split between the governor and Blakeman 42%-41%. Independents were also more divided as the governor held a small plurality of 41%-36%.

In more good news for Hochul, her net favorability has returned to the positives (though barely), with a 1% net positive at 44% favorable, 43% unfavorable in the latest poll, up from a 5% net negative at 41%-46% two months ago. But Blakeman’s favorability also increased, going from a net negative 17% favorable, 19% unfavorable in April to 25%-21% in the latest poll. He still remains mostly unknown, though.

Cost of living ranked as the biggest concern for 53% of New Yorkers polled, with affordable housing a distant second as the top issue for 13% of voters. “A majority or large plurality of Democrats, Republicans, independents, upstaters and downstaters, men and women, young and old, Black, Latino or white all say that cost of living is the most important issue,” said pollster Steve Greenberg in a statement. “At least 72% of each of those groups of voters say cost of living is one of the two most important issues.”

Hochul has said she plans to run on her achievements won in the tardy state budget, including those addressing affordability. The Siena poll suggested that several of them may indeed resonate with voters in November. 

Roughly 70% of New Yorkers surveyed said two key immigrant protections approved as part of the budget – enabling people to sue federal officials who violate their constitutional rights and ensuring a right to public education regardless of immigration status – will be good for New York. About 67% of those polled said that $100-$200 utility rebate checks going to millions of households would be good for the state as well.

Bare 53% majorities of voters surveyed agreed both that a new law prohibiting federal agents from wearing masks – one of the subjects of a new lawsuit by the U.S. Department of Justice – and a new tax on second homes in New York City would benefit the state. And a 46% plurality of New Yorkers polled said a one-year moratorium on artificial intelligence data centers would be good for New York. 

The only issue that a plurality of those surveyed – regardless of party – said would be bad for the state was a constitutional amendment that would permit partisan, mid-decade redistricting. Democrats passed the amendment for the first time at the start of this month before leaving Albany for the year, but the measure would  eventually need to get approved by voters to actually be enacted. And even a plurality of Democrats said the amendment would be bad for the state.