Campaigns & Elections
The 2026 congressional general election races to watch
The road to the House majority could run through New York this year.
The race for New York’s 17th Congressional District, a seat currently held by Rep. Mike Lawler, is already one of the country’s most closely watched this general election cycle. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Could 2026 be a blue wave year? The answer could very well be found in New York. From the wealthiest enclaves of Long Island to the remote reaches of Northern New York, control of the House of Representatives will likely come down to a handful of battleground congressional districts, including a few in the Empire State.
That includes some of the tightest toss-ups, such as Republican Rep. Mike Lawler’s precarious bid to hold onto his Lower Hudson Valley seat, and Democrats’ attempts to do the same in a couple of mercurial Long Island districts.
But if there are common themes to these competitive seats – the Trump factor, the copious outside spending, a steady stream of opposition research – they each hold their own eccentricities and colorful characters, too.
City & State broke down everything you need to know about the most competitive general election races in congressional seats statewide.
1st Congressional District
TL;DR: A Trump-endorsed incumbent takes on an underfunded Democratic challenger in the Hamptons.
Incumbent: Rep. Nick LaLota (R)
Challenger: Christopher Gallant (D)
Fundraising: As of their July quarterly reports, LaLota has received nearly $3.8 million in total contributions and has more than $3.3 million in cash on hand, while Gallant has more than $647,500 in total contributions and just over $172,200 in cash on hand.
District demographics: 71% white, 15% Hispanic, 6% Asian, 5% Black
Voter enrollment: 31% Democrat, 33% Republican
2024 presidential vote: 44.3% Harris, 54.3% Trump
What’s the deal?
The Hamptons are a premiere spot for summer fundraising, and true to form, the Trump administration is campaigning hard to maintain its Republican-held seats on Long Island, including in New York’s 1st Congressional District. While historically more purple, the district has grown increasingly red in recent years. The incumbent, Rep. Nick LaLota, is fairly popular in his district, which his challenger, former Army pilot Chris Gallant, could be hard-pressed to overcome. LaLota is endorsed by President Donald Trump and has appeared with him on Long Island recently to promote public safety initiatives. Gallant has been added to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s Districts in Play program, which has thrown him some funding. He is focusing on affordability for Suffolk County residents who have been hit hard by rising gas prices caused by the U.S.’s war with Iran, as well as other rising costs due to tariffs. – Fariha Rahman
Further reading:
Primaries set up Suozzi-LiPetri rematch for House seat
GOP meddles in Dems’ CD1 primary
3rd Congressional District
TL;DR: A four-term moderate Democratic member of Congress is looking to fend off a MAGA-backed challenger for a second time in Bruce Blakeman’s backyard, testing the Nassau County executive’s top-of-the-ticket power.
Incumbent: Rep. Tom Suozzi (D)
Challenger: Mike LiPetri (R)
Fundraising: Suozzi has almost $5.5 million in total contributions, and nearly $5.7 million in cash on hand as of the July quarterly filing. Also as of then, LiPetri has $1.7 million in total contributions, and just over $710,000 in cash on hand.
District demographics: 51% white, 25% Asian, 16% Hispanic, 4% Black
Voter enrollment: 39% Democrat, 27% Republican
2024 presidential vote: 47.1% Harris, 51.4% Trump
What’s the deal?
We all remember how things turned out the last time the 3rd Congressional District sent a Republican to Washington, D.C. George Santos won the seat Rep. Tom Suozzi left vacant in 2022 after three terms when he mounted an unsuccessful run for governor. Suozzi then won the seat back in a 2024 special election following Santos’ expulsion from Congress. He won a full term later that year in a race that pit him against former Assembly Member Mike LiPetri, who he defeated by just 3.6 points – and this year, LiPetri is hoping to best Suozzi in a rematch. The district includes a large chunk of Nassau County, which is Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman’s home turf and contains strong MAGA pockets. Having Blakeman on top of the ticket – and recent appearances in the county from Donald Trump, JD Vance and Mike Johnson – makes winning there achievable for LiPetri. But Suozzi won Suffolk County and northeast Queens by 10 points in 2024, and high turnout in those areas could help him hang onto his seat for another term. Suozzi is vulnerable, though, with the purple district long being a target for Republicans. And his flip-flopping stance on Department of Homeland Security funding likely didn’t do him any favors with the party faithful. – Chantal Mann
Further reading:
GOP bullish on stock trading attacks in midterm
JD Vance stumps for Long Island Republicans
Suozzi says Democrats lost votes for supporting ‘biological boys’ playing on girls’ sports teams
5 things to know about Tom Suozzi
4th Congressional District
TL;DR: After failing to recruit their preferred candidate for a rematch against Rep. Laura Gillen, Republicans are now fighting an uphill battle to unseat the first-term Democrat in what has become a swingy district.
Incumbent: Rep. Laura Gillen (D)
Challenger: Jeanine Driscoll (R)
Fundraising: Gillen has $5.1 million total contributions, and $3.8 million in cash on hand as of July 15. Driscoll has just shy of $265,000 total contributions and about $226,000 on hand.
District demographics: 48% white, 23% Hispanic, 17% Black, 8% Asian
Voter enrollment: 41% Democrat, 29% Republican
2024 presidential vote: 50% Harris, 48.8% Trump
What’s the deal?
It’s not the rematch that political observers may have been expecting, but Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen is still in for a fight in order to defend her marginal Long Island seat. She successfully flipped the 4th Congressional District in 2024, winning the seat from former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito in a close race. She fell short of victory against D’Esposito in 2022 as the pair competed to replace former Democratic Rep. Kathleen Rice.
Many Republican leaders on Long Island had held out hope D’Esposito would ditch his position with the Trump administration to run against Gillen again. But when that didn’t happen, the once-vaunted Nassau County GOP was left with a placeholder candidate and the need to engage in a search for a replacement. And thus they landed in mid-April on Jeanine Driscoll, the receiver of taxes for the Town of Hempstead. “They came back and they said, ‘Jeanine, we really think you can do it,’” she told City & State, noting she has a similar biographical background as Gillen despite their political differences. “I’m not going to turn it down. It's a great opportunity.”
It was a rocky start for Republicans in one of the most competitive districts in the state. Gillen had a narrow victory two years ago, winning 51.1% of the vote to D’Esposito’s 48.8%, so the Long Island seat is a prime pickup opportunity for the GOP looking to defend its House majority. – Rebecca C. Lewis
Further reading:
Battleground New York is back and ready to spend $6M on Democrats
Former Assembly member plans to primary Rep. Laura Gillen over ICE funding vote
Will fallout from Trump rally’s Puerto Rico comments cost this Long Island Republican his seat?
Gillen declares victory in NY-4 as Trump wins Nassau County
17th Congressional District
TL;DR: This deeply purple congressional seat is one of the nation’s most closely watched midterm races, and it all comes down to incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Lawler’s ability to keep Democrat Cait Conley at bay.
Incumbent: Rep. Mike Lawler (R)
Challenger: Cait Conley (D)
Fundraising: As of mid-July, Lawler has nearly $8.2 million in total contributions, and more than $4.8 million in cash on hand. Conley has $4.3 million in total contributions, and just under $3 million on hand.
District demographics: 61% white, 22% Hispanic, 7% Black, 5% Asian
Voter enrollment: 40% Democrat, 26% Republican
2024 presidential vote: 49.9% Harris, 49.3% Trump
What’s the deal?
The purple 17th Congressional District is one of the most competitive – and therefore expensive – elections in the fight for House control. This time around, everything’s in play as Rep. Mike Lawler vies to keep the seat for a third term, and stave off Democrat Cait Conley, the former director of counterterrorism for the National Security Council under President Joe Biden.
Cost-of-living issues remain front and center for the diverse district, which major election forecasters have long-declared a toss-up. But how each candidate discusses international issues has also taken a front seat.
Lawler knows what’s at stake, and tries his best to remind voters he only agrees with President Donald Trump most of the time. Meanwhile, Conley’s busy campaigning against the status quo, and the latest polls have her slightly in the lead.
The race has been at a simmer for months from both sides, especially online. Candidates briefly sparred over Lawler’s ties to the pardon of a Chinese spy and a former Conley surrogate caught heat for since-deleted social media posts expressing preference for MAGA over democratic socialists. And they just appeared in a forum together for the first time in the general election cycle. But the real test starts now, as undecided voters start to pay attention to the race in earnest. Will the incumbent hang on, or are political winds shifting in the Lower Hudson Valley? – Kate Lisa
Further reading:
National Dems embrace Conley’s challenge to GOP Rep. Lawler
Cait Conley wins NY-17 primary to take on Lawler
Pro-veterans PAC launches $1M ad spend to boost Conley in NY-17
Trump takes aim at Hochul and Jeffries at Lawler campaign event
Dems running to unseat Lawler have been ordered: Don't run on Trump
19th Congressional District
TL;DR: The purple district where spending broke $35 million in 2024 is in play again – though recent scandals and waning support for a Republican challenger may make things easier for the moderate Democratic incumbent.
Incumbent: Rep. Josh Riley (D)
Challenger: State Sen. Peter Oberacker (R)
Fundraising: As of the July quarterly filings, Riley has $4.8 million in total contributions, and nearly $3.2 million in cash on hand. Oberacker has $1.2 million total contributions, and just under $393,000 on hand.
District demographics: 79% white, 8% Hispanic, 4% Black, 4% Asian
Voter enrollment: 35% Democrat, 32% Republican
2024 presidential vote: 50.4% Harris, 48.7% Trump
What’s the deal?
In 2024, the race for New York’s 19th Congressional District was the most expensive House race in the country as Democrat Josh Riley narrowly unseated then-Rep. Marc Molinaro by 2.3 points – just two years after Molinaro won the seat by 1.6 percentage points. Now, the district is in play yet again as Riley faces off against state Sen. Peter Oberacker.
Much of the district is made up of farmland, and immigration is a make-or-break issue for both candidates. Riley has aligned himself with Republicans several times on border security legislation, supporting the Laken Riley Act and co-sponsoring a bill to reform the H-2A visa program – one with far more Republican co-sponsors than Democratic ones. Oberacker has touted his endorsement from Donald Trump, but he may be lesser known to some voters in the densely populated areas surrounding Binghamton and Ithaca, as they are outside his state Senate district. He has been in the headlines lately – but not for a good reason: A now-deleted Facebook post of Oberacker’s from 2015 resurfaced. In it, Oberacker shared a photo of his Nazi grandfather in German military garb with swastika badges, and saluted him for his service in honor of Veterans Day. Oberacker defended his grandfather, saying he had been drafted and died in the Battle of the Bulge, but the political fallout has been steep. National Republicans have decided to abandon Oberacker, and pulled $5 million from the battleground seat to distance themselves from his flaws. Still, Oberacker could gain some support from outside spending in the coming weeks, though Riley’s fundraising far outpaces Oberacker. – Chantal Mann
Further reading:
GOP bullish on stock trading attacks in midterm
5 things to know about Peter Oberacker
Oberacker to challenge Riley in NY-19
Josh Riley hauls in $759,000 in first quarter of 2025
21st Congressional District
TL;DR: A wealthy Republican firebrand and entrepreneur backed by President Donald Trump who’s self-funding his campaign may not be the shoo-in to replace Rep. Elise Stefanik the president thought he would be.
Incumbent: None, Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik is not seeking reelection.
Candidates: Anthony Constantino (R) and Blake Gendebien (D)
Fundraising: As of mid-July, Constantino has $12 million in total contributions, and just over $3 million in cash on hand. Gendebien has just under $5.5 million total contributions and more than $2.6 million on hand.
District demographics: 88% white, 4% Hispanic, 2% Black, 1% Asian
Voter enrollment: 26% Democrat, 42% Republican
2024 presidential vote: 39.4% Harris, 60.1% Trump
What’s the deal?
When President Donald Trump rescinded Rep. Elise Stefanik’s nomination to be the next United Nations ambassador, Northern New Yorkers could feel the tide shifting. Now, there’s a chance the 21st Congressional District – long-thought to be a Republican stronghold – could flip blue. Sticker Mule CEO Anthony Constantino trounced the establishment pick for the Republican nomination, Assembly Member Bob Smullen, in the primary. But a recent poll has Democrat dairy farmer Blake Gendebien leading Constantino by 4 percentage points. Others don’t, but Gendebien still has a shot. He declared his candidacy early, and has been campaigning on economic problems that resonate with most upstaters ever since.
The bombastic Constantino, a fierce Trump loyalist who self-funds his campaign, says little on issues until he’s spoken with the president. But the former wrestler is using party leaders, and artificial intelligence-inspired music videos to compete with the dairy farmer. Democrats see a chance, but could it happen? It’s still a tough climb in a district with a solid majority of Republican voters that’s backed Trump every step of the way. – Kate Lisa
Further reading:
Cutting satire: Pro-circumcision Constantino campaign flyers are fake
NY-21 Republicans choose Constantino, stand with Trump
The bitter NY-21 primary highlights a fractured GOP
Hochul targets Stefanik’s seat
Sticker Mule CEO Anthony Constantino was inspired by Elon Musk to run for Congress