Hochul leads Blakeman by just 9 points in new Siena poll

The race for governor remains largely unchanged compared to a month ago, according to new polling. That’s not the best news for Gov. Kathy Hochul, since it puts her Republican opponent Bruce Blakeman within single digits.

The latest poll from Siena University has Hochul leading Blakeman 50%-41% among likely voters in New York, just a 9-point lead with less than two months to go before Election Day on Nov. 3. That’s 1 point better for Blakeman compared to the survey Siena released last month, the first of the cycle from Siena to poll likely voters, which had the matchup at 49%-39% for Hochul. 

The new Siena poll has Hochul and Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, almost evenly split in the suburbs, with the incumbent slightly ahead 48%-46%. But Blakeman leads among independents 44%-39%.

In better news for Hochul, a 66%-25% majority of those polled said they expect she will defeat Blakeman in November, despite only 50% saying they actually planned to vote for her.

“Given a nine-point race, it might seem surprising that two-thirds of voters think Hochul will win,” Siena pollster Steve Greenberg said in a statement. “On the other hand, voters haven’t elected a Republican governor in 24 years, and there is that two-to-one Democratic enrollment edge, so it may not be surprising that more than one-third of Republicans think Hochul will win, as do 61% of independents, although only 39% of independents currently plan to vote for her.”

The latest poll from Siena surveyed 1,114 likely New York voters from Sept. 11 through 17 with a 3.9 percentage point margin of error. However, only 991 completed the entire poll. The portion of the survey with that sample size has a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.

Hochul beat Blakeman on three key issues Siena asked likely voters about. On making prices more affordable, a 49%-40% plurality said Hochul would do a better job than Blakeman. A smaller 49%-43% plurality said the governor would also do better than her challenger on the issue of keeping New Yorkers safe. And an even smaller 47%-43% plurality said Hochul would be better at addressing undocumented immigrants living in the state. 

Hochul also is out with a new ad focused on touting her moratorium on hyperscale data centers in the state, and the Siena survey suggests it’s an issue that may resonate with voters. A strong 63% majority of likely voters polled said they would oppose large data center projects near them once the moratorium ends. That’s even higher – 66% – among those polled upstate, where Blakeman consistently leads Hochul in Siena polls.

The poll also asked likely voters their thoughts on two major endorsements in the gubernatorial race: New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s backing of Hochul, and President Donald Trump’s backing of Blakeman. Among likely voters polled, 50% said Mamandi’s endorsement of Hochul will be a positive for her campaign, while only 30% said it will be a negative. Those numbers are flipped when it comes to Trump’s endorsement of Blakeman: 51% said it will be a negative and 30% said it will be a positive.