The 2026 congressional general election races to watch

1st Congressional District

Suffolk County

TL;DR: A Trump-endorsed incumbent takes on an underfunded Democratic challenger in the Hamptons. 

Incumbent: Rep. Nick LaLota (R)

Challenger: Christopher Gallant (D)

Fundraising: As of their September quarterly reports, LaLota has received nearly $4.4 million in total contributions and has more than $2.7 million in cash on hand, while Gallant has more than $1.5 million in total contributions and just over $609,000 in cash on hand.

District demographics: 71% white, 15% Hispanic, 6% Asian, 5% Black

Voter registration (as of Feb. 20): 201,212 Republicans, 180,008 Democrats

2024 presidential vote: 54.3% Donald Trump, 44.3% Kamala Harris

What’s the deal? The Hamptons are a premiere spot for summer fundraising, and true to form, the Trump administration is campaigning hard to maintain its Republican-held seats on Long Island, including in the 1st Congressional District. While historically more purple, the district has grown increasingly red in recent years. The incumbent, Republican Rep. Nick LaLota, is fairly popular in his district, an advantage his Democratic challenger, former Army pilot Chris Gallant, could be hard-pressed to overcome. LaLota is endorsed by President Donald Trump and has appeared with him on Long Island to promote public safety initiatives. Gallant has been added to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s Districts in Play program, which has thrown him some funding. He is focusing on affordability for Suffolk County residents who have been hit hard by rising gas prices, as well as other rising costs due to tariffs. But the most attention he’s gotten so far on the campaign came after the New York Post published photos of Gallant modeling for a bondage apparel brand in 2010. Rather than be shamed, Gallant is leaning in, with his campaign posting a graphic reading “Make Politics Sexy Again.” In a race still rated solid Republican by analysts at Inside Elections and Cook Political Report, maybe Gallant’s gambit is worth a shot. – Fariha Rahman and Annie McDonough

Further reading:

Battleground New York is back and ready to spend $6M on Democrats

LI House district pits 2 candidates who both live elsewhere

3rd Congressional District

Eastern Queens and parts of Nassau and Suffolk counties

TL;DR: A four-term moderate Democratic member of Congress is looking to fend off a MAGA-backed challenger for a second time in Bruce Blakeman’s backyard, testing the Nassau County executive’s top-of-the-ticket power.

Incumbent: Rep. Tom Suozzi (D)

Challenger: Mike LiPetri (R)

Fundraising: Suozzi has more than $7.1 million in total contributions, and nearly $5 million in cash on hand as of the September quarterly filing. Also as of then, LiPetri has more than $2.3 million in total contributions, and just over $883,000 in cash on hand.

District demographics: 51% white, 25% Asian, 16% Hispanic, 4% Black

Voter registration (as of Feb. 20): 207,726 Democrats, 148,153 Republicans

2024 presidential vote: 51.4% Trump, 47.1% Harris

What’s the deal?

We all remember how things turned out the last time the 3rd Congressional District sent a Republican to Washington, D.C. George Santos won the seat that now-Rep. Tom Suozzi left vacant in 2022 to mount an unsuccessful run for governor. Santos didn’t last long, to say the least. Suozzi then won the seat back in a 2024 special election following Santos’ expulsion from Congress. He won a full term later that year in a race that pit him against Republican former Assembly Member Mike LiPetri, whom he defeated by just under 4 percentage points – a small enough margin that LiPetri is now looking to best Suozzi in a rematch. The district includes a large chunk of Nassau County, which is Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman’s home turf and contains strong MAGA pockets. Having Blakeman on top of the ticket – and appearances in the county by Donald Trump, JD Vance and Mike Johnson – makes winning a possibility for LiPetri. A super PAC affiliated with Trump has spent millions against Suozzi. But Suozzi won Suffolk County and northeast Queens by 10 percentage points in 2024, and high turnout in those areas could help him hang on to his seat for another term. – Chantal Mann

Further reading: 
GOP bullish on stock trading attacks in midterm
JD Vance stumps for Long Island Republicans
Suozzi says Democrats lost votes for supporting ‘biological boys’ playing on girls’ sports teams
5 things to know about Tom Suozzi

4th Congressional District

Nassau County

TL;DR: After failing to recruit their preferred candidate for a rematch against Rep. Laura Gillen, Republicans are now fighting an uphill battle to unseat the first-term Democrat in what has become a swingy district.

Incumbent: Rep. Laura Gillen (D)

Challenger: Jeanine Driscoll (R)

Fundraising: Gillen has more than $6 million in total contributions, and $3.9 million in cash on hand as of Sept. 30. Driscoll has more than $664,000 in total contributions and about $270,000 on hand.

District demographics: 48% white, 23% Hispanic, 17% Black, 8% Asian

Voter registration (as of Feb. 20): 224,023 Democrats, 160,563 Republicans

2024 presidential vote: 50% Harris, 48.8% Trump

What’s the deal? 

It’s not the rematch that political observers were expecting, but Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen is still in for a fight to defend her swing Long Island seat. She successfully flipped the 4th Congressional District in 2024, winning the seat from former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito in a close race. She fell short of victory against D’Esposito in 2022 as the pair competed to replace former Democratic Rep. Kathleen Rice.

Many Republican leaders on Long Island had held out hope D’Esposito would ditch his Department of Labor inspector general job in the Trump administration to run against Gillen again. But when that didn’t happen, the once-vaunted Nassau County GOP was left with a placeholder candidate and the need to search for a replacement. And thus they landed in mid-April on Jeanine Driscoll, the receiver of taxes for the town of Hempstead – a position Gillen has tried to twist to hold Driscoll responsible for tax hikes. “They came back and they said, ‘Jeanine, we really think you can do it,’” she told City & State, noting she has a similar biographical background to Gillen, despite their political differences. “I’m not going to turn it down. It’s a great opportunity.”

It was a rocky start for Republicans in one of the most competitive districts in the state. But Gillen had only a narrow victory two years ago, so the Long Island seat could be a pickup opportunity for the GOP. – Rebecca C. Lewis

Further reading:
Battleground New York is back and ready to spend $6M on Democrats
Former Assembly member plans to primary Rep. Laura Gillen over ICE funding vote
Will fallout from Trump rally’s Puerto Rico comments cost this Long Island Republican his seat?
Gillen declares victory in NY-4 as Trump wins Nassau County

17th Congressional District

Rockland and Putnam counties and parts of Westchester and Dutchess counties

TL;DR: This deeply purple congressional seat is one of the nation’s most closely watched midterm races, and it all comes down to incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Lawler’s ability to keep Democrat Cait Conley at bay. 

Incumbent: Rep. Mike Lawler (R)

Challenger: Cait Conley (D)

Fundraising: As of the September quarterly filing, Lawler has $10 million in total contributions, and more than $2.8 million in cash on hand. Conley has $9.7 million in total contributions, and nearly $1.2 million in cash on hand. 

District demographics: 61% white, 22% Hispanic, 7% Black, 5% Asian

Voter registration (as of Feb. 20): 211,870 Democrats, 137,909 Republicans

2024 presidential vote: 49.9% Harris, 49.3% Trump

What’s the deal? 

The purple 17th Congressional District is one of the most competitive – and therefore expensive – elections in the fight for the House. This time around, everything’s in play as Rep. Mike Lawler vies to keep the seat for a third term, and stave off Democrat Cait Conley, the former director of counterterrorism for the National Security Council under President Joe Biden.

Cost-of-living issues remain front and center for the diverse district, which major election forecasters have long-declared a toss-up. But how each candidate discusses international issues has also taken a front seat.

Lawler knows what’s at stake, and tries his best to remind voters he only agrees with President Donald Trump most of the time. Meanwhile, Conley’s busy campaigning against the status quo. Polling has remained consistently close since the end of the Democratic primary, though the most recent public independent poll put Conley up by 2 points.

The race had been at a simmer for months from both sides, especially online. Candidates briefly sparred over Lawler’s ties to the pardon of a Chinese spy and a former Conley surrogate caught heat for since-deleted social media posts expressing preference for MAGA over democratic socialists. But the mudslinging is well underway now, both online and in two contentious debates. – Kate Lisa and Sophie Krichevsky

Further reading:
Mike Lawler might be the only Republican who could win NY-17. Can he do it again?
National Dems embrace Conley’s challenge to GOP Rep. Lawler
Cait Conley wins NY-17 primary to take on Lawler
Pro-veterans PAC launches $1M ad spend to boost Conley in NY-17
Trump takes aim at Hochul and Jeffries at Lawler campaign event
Dems running to unseat Lawler have been ordered: Don't run on Trump

19th Congressional District

Broome, Chenango, Columbia, Cortland, Delaware, Greene, Sullivan and counties and parts of Cortland, Otsego, Rensselaer and Ulster counties

TL;DR: The purple district where spending broke $35 million in 2024 is in play again – though recent scandals and waning support for a Republican challenger may make things easier for the moderate Democratic incumbent. 

Incumbent: Rep. Josh Riley (D)

Challenger: State Sen. Peter Oberacker (R)

Fundraising: As of the September quarterly filing, Riley has $5.8 million in total contributions, and $2.1 million in cash on hand. Oberacker has $1.4 million total contributions, and just $43,000 in cash on hand.

District demographics: 79% white, 8% Hispanic, 4% Black, 4% Asian

Voter registration (as of Feb. 20): 178,325 Democrats, 163,699 Republicans

2024 presidential vote: 50.4% Harris, 48.7% Trump

What’s the deal?

In 2024, the race for the 19th Congressional District was the most expensive House race in the country, as Democrat Josh Riley narrowly unseated then-Rep. Marc Molinaro by 2.3 percentage points – just two years after Molinaro won the seat by 1.6 points. Now, the district is in play yet again as Riley faces off against state Sen. Peter Oberacker.

Much of the district is made up of farmland, and immigration is a make-or-break issue for both candidates. Riley has aligned himself with Republicans several times on border security legislation, supporting the Laken Riley Act and co-sponsoring a bill to reform the H-2A visa program – one with far more Republican co-sponsors than Democratic ones. Oberacker has touted his endorsement from Donald Trump, but he may be lesser known to some voters in the densely populated areas surrounding Binghamton and Ithaca, since they are outside his state Senate district. He was in the headlines due to a now-deleted Facebook post from 2015 in which Oberacker shared a photo of his Nazi grandfather in German military garb with swastika badges, and saluted him for his service in honor of Veterans Day. Oberacker defended his grandfather, saying he had been drafted and died in the Battle of the Bulge, but the political fallout has been steep. National Republicans have decided to abandon Oberacker, and pulled $5 million from the battleground seat to distance themselves from his flaws. Things have not gotten much better for Oberacker on the campaign trail – he recently tore tendons in his knee that required surgery.  – Chantal Mann

Further reading: 
Oberacker says he injured knee at volleyball game
GOP bullish on stock trading attacks in midterm
5 things to know about Peter Oberacker
Oberacker to challenge Riley in NY-19
Josh Riley hauls in $759,000 in first quarter of 2025

21st Congressional District

Clinton, Essex, Franklin, Fulton, Hamilton, Herkimer, Lewis, Montgomery, Schoharie, St. Lawrence, Warren and Washington counties and parts of Jefferson, Oneida and Saratoga counties

TL;DR: A wealthy Republican firebrand and entrepreneur backed by President Donald Trump who’s self-funding his campaign may not be the shoo-in to replace Rep. Elise Stefanik the president thought he would be. 

Incumbent: None, Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik is not seeking reelection.

Candidates: Anthony Constantino (R) and Blake Gendebien (D)

Fundraising: As of Sept. 30, Constantino has $14.4 million in total contributions, and just over $4.1 million in cash on hand. Gendebien has just under $7.2 million total contributions and just under $470,000 in cash on hand.

District demographics: 88% white, 4% Hispanic, 2% Black, 1% Asian

Voter registration (as of Feb. 20): 205,573 Republicans, 126,514 Democrats

2024 presidential vote: 60.1% Trump, 39.4% Harris

What’s the deal?

When President Donald Trump rescinded Rep. Elise Stefanik’s nomination to be the next United Nations ambassador, Northern New Yorkers could feel the tide shifting. Now, there’s a chance the 21st Congressional District – long thought to be a Republican stronghold – could flip blue. Sticker Mule CEO Anthony Constantino trounced the establishment pick for the Republican nomination, Assembly Member Robert Smullen, in the primary. But an October poll had Democratic dairy farmer Blake Gendebien leading Constantino by 4 percentage points. Gendebien declared his candidacy early and has been campaigning on economic problems that resonate with upstaters ever since.

The bombastic Constantino, a fierce Trump loyalist who self-funds his campaign, says little on issues until he’s spoken with the president. But the former wrestler is using party leaders, and artificial intelligence-inspired music videos. It’s still a tough climb for Gendebien in a district with a solid majority of Republican voters who have backed Trump every step of the way. – Kate Lisa

Further reading:
Cutting satire: Pro-circumcision Constantino campaign flyers are fake
NY-21 Republicans choose Constantino, stand with Trump
The bitter NY-21 primary highlights a fractured GOP
Hochul targets Stefanik’s seat
Sticker Mule CEO Anthony Constantino was inspired by Elon Musk to run for Congress