Why Blakeman wanted Trump’s midterm rally in Syracuse

With just weeks before an Election Day widely expected to favor Democrats, Republicans looking to hang on to the House majority have sought to distance themselves from the increasingly unpopular President Donald Trump. 

Republican gubernatorial nominee Bruce Blakeman, on the other hand, is running full speed ahead toward the president. 

Trump is slated to hold a midterm rally at Syracuse’s Oncenter Convention Center for Blakeman and other GOP candidates in the Empire State on Friday night. Earlier this week, Punchbowl News reported that Trump is doing the Central New York rally at Blakeman’s request.  

Trump has appeared with Blakeman before, both in the Nassau County executive’s stomping grounds and in Rep. Mike Lawler’s district back in May. Lawler, who is trying to beat Democrat Cait Conley, is following the national trend and isn’t going to Syracuse. 

So why did Blakeman ask Trump to host another rally for him, let alone in Syracuse, a solidly blue Central New York city? 

“He needs good turnout upstate,” said Republican strategist Chapin Fay, who is the spokesperson for Strong and Safe New York, a pro-Blakeman independent expenditure committee. “In Central New York, everywhere upstate, Bruce needs to overperform.”

So there’s some logic to turning to his close ally, the president of the United States, to help rally support.

“The Trump visit makes all the sense in the world for Blakeman. He can win this race – but only if Republicans turn out like they did in 2022,” said Bill O’Reilly, a GOP consultant and a spokesperson for both the state Conservative Party and Republican state Attorney General candidate Saritha Komatireddy. “We need to match the Democrats in enthusiasm – especially in Central and Western New York. There is no downside at this point. Voters are well aware that Blakeman and the president go back decades as friends. That’s already built into the equation.”

The Blakeman campaign did not respond to City & State’s request for comment on the rally.

The event, organized by Trump’s fundraising PAC, the Trump 47 Committee, marks the president’s first in Syracuse in a decade, when he was running in his first Republican primary in 2016. Meanwhile, Gov. Kathy Hochul has hammered Blakeman throughout the campaign for his alignment with the president. The Salt City isn’t just solidly blue: Its residents are expected to elect Mo Brown, its first-ever democratic socialist state legislator, next month. And just two weeks ago, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez visited Syracuse on her upstate tour as the progressive darling explores a run for higher office. 

But the city, located in Onondaga County, is in Blakeman’s running mate Todd Hood’s backyard. For more than eight years, Hood has been the sheriff in Madison County, which sits directly east of Syracuse, and is sandwiched between there and Utica. And the centrally located city just makes sense, both geographically and by the numbers. State party spokesperson David Laska said Trump’s visit has fired up Republicans all around the state, and Syracuse’s central location will draw a big crowd from every corner.

“Voters of all stripes are hungry for new leadership after Kathy Hochul and one-party Democrat rule have made New York the most taxed, least affordable state,” Laska said in a statement. “(Friday’s) rally will ensure that we have the energy to carry us through Election Day and bring real change to New York.”

For a Republican like Blakeman to win a statewide race in blue New York, they must increase their margins upstate and on Long Island to offset New York City’s massive Democratic voting base. And while Blakeman has naturally strong polling numbers and name recognition on his native Long Island, driving peak enthusiasm in regions like Central New York is essential for any real shot at a win.

“Campaigns are just a large math problem – that’s all they are,” Fay said. 

While Blakeman’s chances of victory are slim, the GOP doesn’t plan to give up. Recent independent polls show Hochul has a comfortable lead over Blakeman – though perhaps slimmer than she might want in a blue wave year. That’s likely because, as polls have also shown, she struggles to excite voters. Blakeman, meanwhile, has consistently polled better among upstate independents. 

And party leaders see an opportunity in the region this year. Though then-Rep. Lee Zeldin, now Trump’s administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, lost to Hochul by 6 points in 2022, he won the counties of Central New York by 5.6 percentage points. If the party can energize voters in the area, therefore, they think it could go a long way.  

Also expected to attend Friday night’s rally are Republican House candidates Anthony Constantino, who’s running to replace Rep. Elise Stefanik in the North Country’s 21st Congressional District, and Kailee Buller, who is challenging Rep. John Mannion in Syracuse. 

Other pro-Blakeman forces will also be scattered across the state Friday. Strong and Safe New York, the super PAC backing Blakeman’s campaign for governor, plans to send a convoy of moving trucks to circle the state Capitol in Albany, then down in Westchester County, on Friday in the hours before Trump’s rally in Central New York to symbolize the state’s high numbers of outmigration in the last five years since Hochul took office. The PAC did a similar stunt in New York City last month.