Poll: Mamdani leads in mayoral match-up with 39%

Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani is still the clear front-runner in the New York City mayoral race, though at 39% he has less of a lead compared to some of the other polling that’s come out in recent days, a new survey found.

The pollster, Public Policy Polling, was the only one to accurately and publicly predict that Mamdani was leading in the Democratic mayoral primary back in June. At the time, supporters of former Gov. Andrew Cuomo and other critics brushed the findings off as inaccurate, though the group would be vindicated roughly two weeks later when the election results showed the 33-year-old Democratic socialist clinched a decisive and historic victory. 

The recent poll of 556 registered New York City voters was shared exclusively with City & State ahead of its release. While it was commissioned by national advocacy organization Decriminalize Sex Work specifically to determine how New Yorkers feel about decriminalizing prostitution – a issue that’s divided mayoral canidates – it also asked respondents who they would vote for if the general election were today. 

According to the survey, 39% of respondents said they would vote for Mamdani, the state Assembly member from Queens who went from longshot contender for much of the primary cycle to domineering front-runner in the general election. In contrast, 25% of respondents said they would vote for Cuomo, who lost badly to Mamdani in the primary and is now mounting a campaign as an independent candidate. 

Mayor Eric Adams, who is also running as an independent, meanwhile, got the support of 12% of respondents while Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa got 13%. Another 11% said they weren’t sure. The poll, conducted by text and landline, had a 4.2-point margin of error. 

The poll was conducted between Sept. 4 and 5 – in the midst of reporting that top officials within the Trump administration were considering offering Adams a job in hopes of getting him to drop out of the general election. The mayor has repeatedly insisted he’s not leaving the race, but rumors have continued to swirl amid a push to consolidate the field to give Cuomo a better shot against Mamdani this November. 

With roughly two months to go until Election Day, a blitz of polls have been published in recent days, all showing Mamdani with a sizable lead over the rest of the field. Cuomo has consistently been in second – generally about 15 to 20 points behind Mamdani – followed by Sliwa then Adams. While reading polls is a bit like reading tea leaves and should always be taken with a degree of skepticism, polling from The New York Times/Siena College conducted between Sept. 2 and 6 found that 46% of respondents would vote for Mamdani and 9% for Adams – both a handful of percentage points off from the respective 39% and 12% measured in the Public Policy Polling survey. Another recent survey from PIX11, Emerson College and The Hill found 43% support for Mamdani and 7% support for Adams. Finally, a poll from Quinnipiac University found that 45% of likely voters support Mamdani. 

One of the big questions looming right now is what the vote breakdown would look like for a consolidated field of candidates – something President Donald Trump is also reportedly pushing for. While the Public Policy Polling survey didn’t measure this, other recent polls exploring what support would look like between a two-way Cuomo and Mamdani match up have found a much narrower race – albeit one Mamdani still appears to lead. 

Roughly 69% of the individuals surveyed by Public Policy Polling said they were registered with the Democratic Party, 13% said they were registered with the Republican Party, 4% said they were with the Working Families Party, and 1% with the Conservative Party. The remaining 13% said they were either an independent or part of a more niche political party.