New York State

How our readers’ predictions match up with voter polls

Readers are predicting large margins of Democratic victories where voter polls indicate a tight race.

US National Capitol in Washington, DC.

US National Capitol in Washington, DC. Shutterstock

Who will win the big legislative races on Tuesday? Nobody knows, but our readers have been weighing in – and you can still vote through Election Day in our unscientific polls of the most competitive New York House and state Senate races.

Based on the results as of noon on Monday, here are how our readers’ expectations match up with City & State’s ratings and voter polls.

Either Democratic readers are very optimistic – or they are casting votes in disproportionate numbers in our online polls. Of the 10 congressional races City & State polled, readers are predicting Democrats will win five contests where polls show the Republican candidate leading.

In New York’s 19th Congressional District, a toss-up contest, 85 percent of our readers are predicting Democratic challenger Antonio Delgado will beat Republican Rep. John Faso. Similarly, 88 percent of readers say Democrat Anthony Brindisi will beat Republican Rep. Claudia Tenney despite the fact that both City & State and The New York Times rate these races as toss-ups.

On the state Senate, of the 14 races readers were asked about, the responses were much more consistent with City & State’s own rankings.


HOUSE RACES:

Congressional District 1

Lee Zeldin and Perry Gershon
Photo courtesy U.S. House of Representatives; Perry Gershon for Congress

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Perry Gershon 66%
▉ Lee Zeldin (incumbent) 34%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

Latest poll from Siena College/New York Times:
▉ Zeldin 49%
▉ Gershon 41%

Congressional District 2

Pete King and Liuba Grechen Shirley
Photo courtesy U.S. House of Representatives; Liuba Grechen Shirley for Congress

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Liuba Grechen Shirley 74%
▉ Pete King (incumbent) 26%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

No poll, but FiveThirtyEight predicts:
▉ King has a 5 in 7 chance of winning
▉ Grechen Shirley has a 2 in 7 chance of winning

Congressional District 11

Dan Donovan and Max Rose
Photo courtesy U.S. House of Representatives; Max Rose for Congress

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Max Rose 65%
▉ Dan Donovan (incumbent) 35%

City & State rating: Leans Republican

Latest poll from Siena College/New York Times:
▉ Donovan 44%
▉ Rose 40%

Congressional District 18

Sean Patrick Maloney and James O'Donnell
Photo courtesy U.S. House of Representatives; James O'Donnell for Congress

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Sean Patrick Maloney (incumbent) 90%
▉ James O’Donnell 10%

City & State rating: Likely Democrat

No latest poll, but FiveThirtyEight predicts:
Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney has a 59 in 60 chance of winning

Congressional District 19

John Faso and Antonio Delgado
Photo courtesy U.S. House of Representatives; Antonio Delgado for Congress

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Antonio Delgado 85%
▉ John Faso (incumbent) 15% 

City & State rating: Toss-Up

Latest poll from Siena College/New York Times:
▉ Delgado 43%
▉ Faso 42%

Congressional District 21

Elise Stefanik and Tedra Cobb
Photos courtesy U.S. House of Representatives; Tedra Cobb for Congress

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Elise Stefanik (incumbent) 54%
▉ Tedra Cobb 46%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

Latest poll from TargetPoint:
▉ Stefanik 50%
▉ Cobb 40%

Congressional District 22

Claudia Tenney and Anthony Brindisi
Photo courtesy U.S. House of Representatives; Anthony Brindisi for Congress

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Anthony Brindisi 88%
▉ Claudia Tenney (incumbent) 12%

City & State rating: Toss-up

Latest poll from Siena College/New York Times:
▉ Tenney 46%
▉ Brindisi 45%

Congressional District 23

Tom Reed and Tracy Mitrano
Photo courtesy U.S. House of Representatives; Tracy Mitrano for Congress

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Tom Reed (incumbent) 55%
▉ Tracy Mitrano 45%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

Latest poll from Change Research:
▉ Reed 49%
▉ Mitrano 47%

Congressional District 24

John Katko and Dana Balter
Photo courtesy U.S. House of Representatives; Dana Balter for Congress

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Dana Balter 52%
▉ John Katko (incumbent) 48%

City & State rating: Leans Republican

Latest poll from Siena College:
▉ Katko 53%
▉ Balter 39%

Congressional District 27

Chris Collins and Nate McMurray
Photo courtesy U.S. House of Representatives; Nate McMurray for Congress

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Nate McMurray 81%
▉ Chris Collins (incumbent) 19%

City & State rating: Leans Republican

Latest poll from News 10 NBC/Dixie Strategies Poll:
▉ Collins 45%
▉ McMurray 38%


STATE SENATE RACES:

State Senate District 3

Dean Murray for Senate; Monica Martinez for Senate

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Dean Murray 54%
▉ Monica Martinez 46%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

State Senate District 4

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Phil Boyle (incumbent) 66%
▉ Louis D’Amaro 34%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

State Senate District 5

Carl Marcellino for state Senate; James Gaughran for State Senate

Readers’ prediction:
▉ James Gaughran 68%
▉ Carl Marcellino (incumbent) 33%

City & State rating: Toss-up

State Senate District 6

Kemp Hannon for state Senate; Kevin Thomas for state Senate

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Kemp Hannon (incumbent) 69%
▉ Kevin Thomas 31%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

State Senate District 7

Elaine Phillips for state Senate; Matt Roth

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Anna Kaplan 57% 
▉ Elaine Phillips (incumbent) 43%

City & State rating: Toss-up

State Senate District 8

John Brooks for state Senate; Jeff Pravato for State Senate

Readers’ prediction:
▉ John Brooks (incumbent) 55%
▉ Jeff Pravato 45%

City & State rating: Toss-up

State Senate District 9

Todd Kaminsky and Francis Becker Jr.

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Todd Kaminsky (incumbent) 79%
▉ Francis Becker Jr. 21%

City & State rating: Likely Democrat

State Senate District 22

Martin Golden for State Senate; Andrew Gounardes for State Senate

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Andrew Gounardes 53%
▉ Martin Golden (incumbent) 47%

City & State rating: Lean Republican

State Senate District 39

Citizens for Tom Basile; Skoufis for NY

Readers’ prediction:
▉ James Skoufis 70%
▉ Tom Basile 31%

City & State rating: Toss-up

State Senate District 40

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Terrence Murphy (incumbent) 54%
▉ Peter Harckham 46%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

State Senate District 41

Sue Serino for state Senate; Karen Smythe for state Senate

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Sue Serino (incumbent) 54%
▉ Karen Smythe 46%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

State Senate District 42

Ann Rabbitt for Senate; Jen Metzger for Senate

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Jen Metzger 56%
▉ Ann Rabbitt 45%

City & State rating: Lean Republican

State Senate District 43

Daphne Jordan and Aaron Gladd

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Daphne Jordan 51%
▉ Aaron Gladd 49%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

State Senate District 50

Robert Antonacci vs. John Mannion

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Robert Antonacci 56%
▉ John Mannion 44%

City & State rating: Lean Republican

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.