New York State

Why Liuba can’t lose

Democrat Liuba Grechen Shirley may not be able to knock off Rep. Peter King, but she’s impressed her party.

Liuba Grechen Shirley

Liuba Grechen Shirley Photo illustration by Alex Law

On a cool evening in late October, Democratic congressional candidate Liuba Grechen Shirley was in the basement of the First Baptist Church of Wyandanch on Long Island, preparing to take questions from the 50 or so people gathered there for a town hall. The church’s pastor, Bishop Michael Talbert, introduced her, fittingly, with a biblical analogy. “We liken her to David and Goliath,” Talbert told the assembled crowd. “And if you have any Bible reference at all, you know who won that fight.”

In many ways, the race Grechen Shirley, 37, is running in the 2nd Congressional District is similar to that Old Testament story. The first-time candidate is taking on 25-year incumbent Rep. Peter King, a giant on Long Island, and she faces long odds. Currently, King is the longest serving Republican member of Congress in New York, more entrenched than any other incumbent in competitive races this year, with a record of legislative accomplishment and an image as the consummate Long Islander. There is no public polling in the race, but Grechen Shirley entered the race with no one expecting her to win and she will end it with few observers betting on her to pull it off.

However, Grechen Shirley has run a strong campaign. She put up impressive fundraising numbers, consistently outraising her opponent month after month. The Cook Political Report cited those numbers as one reason they moved district from “Safe Republican” to “ Likely Republican. 

Grechen Shirley also became a national feminist hero. At the beginning of the election cycle, when she was still competing in the Democratic primary for the chance to challenge King, she made national headlines when shesuccessfully lobbied the Federal Board of Elections to allow campaign spending on childcare so parents like herself can run for office without the extra burden of personal childcare costs when out on the trail.

Liuba Grechen Shirley
Rebecca C. Lewis

A stay-at-home mom who has worked in economic development, she won her primary without party support and she continues to campaign as an outsider candidate in the general. Her race that could have a lasting impact on the district and potentially propel her to different political office even if she comes up short on Nov. 6. Even if she loses, Grechen Shirley may still come away with a victory for herself, and for the Democratic Party on Long Island.

For his part, King said he is taking the race seriously, but remains very confident that his re-election is not in any real danger. He attributes the media attention Grechen Shirley has been receiving and any momentum behind her as simply part of the “blue wave” that Democrats have been expecting this year. “Everything I’m seeing is very positive,” King told City & State while attending a small fundraising dinner for a Suffolk County legislator in Lindenhurst. “Every event I’ve been to, even non-political ones … I didn’t get one negative (comment).”

Hofstra University Dean of Suburban Studies Larry Levy, who has been reporting on or studying Long Island for decades, put it this way: “If there is a big blue tsunami, Peter King is likely to be the last Republican in a competitive district to be washed out to political sea.” Though Levy is wary about making predictions, he pointed to King’s long tenure and reputation for independence that has earned him both friends and support from across the aisle as difficult obstacles for Grechen Shirley to overcome. As King himself likes to point out, The Lugar Center at Georgetown has him ranked the 10th-most bipartisan member of Congress in 2017. In both 2015 and 2016, he had been ranked number one. King bucked party lines to vote against then-President Bill Clinton’s impeachment and vocally challenged Republicans when he demanded more money for 9/11 first responders and increased aid in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy. More recently, he voted against the federal tax law, citing the state and local property tax deduction cap as a measure that would hurt Long Island. This record has earned him support from moderator quarters, including receivingan endorsement from Newsday and benefiting from a fundraiser former New York City mayor Michael Bloombergheld for him.

Peter King
Office of Peter King

However, Levy noted that the district has changed a lot since King, 74, first took office in 1993. It has been redistricted more than once and the non-white and immigrant population living there has been quickly growing. By demographics alone, the district is split fairly evenly among Democrats and Republicans and would be a prime swing district if King were not such a strong incumbent.

Levy views Grechen Shirley’s challenge is one that could put a chink in King’s armor. Like Bishop Talbert at the church in Wyandanch, Levy also referenced an Old Testament story, this time comparing Grechen Shirley to Moses. “Moses brought the children of Israel right up to the border, but was not allowed to pass on,” Levy said. “He did the hard work in the desert, but it fell to his successors to establish the promised land.” In other words, a strong showing from Grechen Shirley on Nov. 6, even if she loses, could lay the groundwork for her or another Democrat, perhaps one with governing experience, to unseat King in 2020. She and her party could also be well-positioned to pick up the seat when King retires.

Currently, CNN is forecasting King will win by a 10-point margin, far closer than his last election in 2016, when he won by 24 point. FiveThirtyEight has the race even closer, with Grechen Shirley coming within five points of King. These outcomes, according to Levy, could demonstrate enough vulnerability for Democrats to view the swing district as one they could win in a presidential election year, when conditions are generally more favorable for Democratic turnout.

And Grechen Shirley herself will likely come out of the race with a bright political future. “I think she’s made a name for herself no matter what,” Long Island political consultant and pollster Mike Dawidziak. “I think she comes out a winner out of this no matter what.”

Dawidziak, who lives in King’s district, said Grechen Shirley also has not worn out her welcome over the course of her long campaign, something that can often happen to challengers. “Sometimes, you get really tired of a particular race because they’re so nasty on each other. Even as a campaign professional, you get tired of it after a while,” Dawidziak said. “This hasn’t been that kind of race. It’s the kind of race where you can kind of like both candidates.”

Grechen Shirley’s race has also been a grassroots-building exercise for the left that may pay dividends in future races. Helping Grechen Shirley build this race, even before she officially announced her candidacy, has been The Arena, a progressive group that emerged after the 2016 election to support and train first time candidates like herself. The Arena has heavily invested its energy in the 2nd Congressional District race, according to co-founder Ravi Gupta, because it felt she was a strong candidate who could go toe-to-toe with King. “From our perspective, we knew coming in that we had an opportunity to get Peter King where he is now, which is basically irritable, dismissive of his constituents and defending a record that’s out of touch with his district,” Gupta said.

Although Gupta would not speculate about Grechen Shirley’s potential loss, remaining confident she would win this year, Gupta alluded to Grechen Shirley and the district’s political future. “This is long-term too, and I think one of the reasons people love Liuba as a candidate is that the infrastructure she’s building has a real shot at lasting beyond this election and the people that she has excited are not going away.”

Grechen Shirley said that even though people called her crazy when she started, her campaign has been holding King accountable in ways he has never been before. “For a long time, people haven’t paid attention to his voting record, but, this year, people are paying attention,” Grechen Shirley told City & State shortly before addressing a town hall Wyandanch. “People are excited.”

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.