Will George Santos’ new congressional run doom his plea deal?

Before President Joe Biden could finish his “State of the Union” address on Thursday night, former Rep. George Santos made a surprising, yet on-brand announcement: he will run for Congress (again) in 2024, despite the 23 felony charges looming over his head and the fact that he was just expelled from the House of Representatives a few months ago.

“I just witnessed a weak, frail president deliver spin and lies to the American people from inside the chambers,” he said in a tweet announcing his candidacy for New York’s 1st Congressional District. “I have made several personal sacrifices in the name of serving the American people. My promise is that I will never back down because of my love for this country.”

Santos filed his statement of organization with the Federal Election Commission yesterday, making him and Republican incumbent Nick LaLota the only GOP candidates so far running in the district, which represents eastern Long Island. LaLota has received a slew of endorsements in support of his re-election to Congress, including from the Suffolk County Republican Committee. 

“To raise the standard in Congress, and to hold a pathological liar who stole an election accountable, I led the charge to expel George Santos,” LaLota said in a statement. “If finishing the job requires beating him in a primary, count me in.”

The U.S. Attorney’s Office in the Eastern District of New York originally filed a 13-count indictment against Santos last May, which included seven counts of wire fraud, three counts of money laundering, one count of theft of public funds and two counts of making materially false statements to the House of Representatives. In October, prosecutors filed a superseding indictment, which added another 10 counts related to wire fraud, identity theft and making materially false statements to the Federal Election Commission. 

The federal charges came months after the House Committee on Ethics opened its own investigation into potentially unlawful activity during Santos’ 2022 congressional campaign. The committee later released a report that found Santos did in fact participate in fraudulent conduct. On Dec. 1, 2023, Santos was formally expelled from Congress.

Santos has so far pleaded not guilty to all 23 felony charges. Since the filing of the superseding indictment in October, he and his lawyers – Andrew Leopoldo Mancilla, Robert Mario Fantone Jr. and Joseph Murray – have attended several status conferences where a potential plea deal has been discussed. 

“The parties are presently engaged in plea negotiations with the goal of solving this matter without the need for a trial,” prosecutors wrote in a December letter to federal judge Joanna Seybert.

The next status conference is set for Aug. 13, with the trial set to commence about a month later, which provides both sides ample time to strike a plea deal – if one is still on the table.

A spokesperson for the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of New York declined to comment when asked whether the plea deal being negotiated could include a condition prohibiting Santos from running for federal office again and how his decision to launch a new campaign may impact any potential deal.

“If you say a plea is inevitable and a jail sentence is inevitable – and I think both those things are true – then one might ask, why are you running for Congress?” Paul Shechtman, a former assistant U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, told City & State. He said Santos may be postponing a plea until after the June primary to benefit his campaign.

Joe Bonilla, a political consultant and managing partner at Relentless Awareness LLC, said that the pending federal charges against Santos may not matter to some Republican primary voters on Long Island.

Even if he doesn’t win the primary, though, his entry into the race is likely to make it harder for LaLota – who faces a strong Democratic challenger in former CNN anchor John Avlon – to hold onto the seat. “The unfortunate thing for New York Republicans is that it’s an unnecessary primary, where they’re trying to hold on to marginal seats right now,” Bonilla said.