Is Hochul vs. Stefanik in New York’s future?

Many New York voters would prefer someone other than Gov. Kathy Hochul as governor, but a new Siena Poll found she’s still polling better than in the recent past, remains well-positioned to hold off potential primary opponents and has ushered through popular policies in the state budget. Rep. Elise Stefanik, meanwhile, leads the pack on the GOP side, and some of her messaging may play well with voters next year.

Last month, Hochul hit new polling highs after historic lows over the past year – squeaking into positive territory by low single digits – and the new poll found her favorability at just about the same. Of those surveyed, 44% had a favorable view of the governor, while 46% had a negative one. That’s only slightly off from last month, when 44% had a positive view of her, while 43% saw her negatively. While Hochul’s favorability is not winning her any popularity contests, that it remains significantly unchanged from when it improved last month is a net positive for the governor. 

Hochul’s job approval ratings also increased slightly, with a bare majority of 50% believing she is doing a good job as governor, compared to 46% who think she is doing a poor job. What’s more, a majority or plurality of voters approved of major agenda items that Hochul achieved in the state budget, with 82% saying they liked a measure that would make canceling subscriptions easier and 81% giving a thumbs-up to universal free school meals. A strong majority of 67% of voters polled also supported the governor’s bell-to-bell cellphone ban in schools, and a plurality of 45% said they liked Hochul’s plan to send out “inflation rebate checks” to New Yorkers in the fall.

Despite all that going for Hochul, a greater percentage of voters surveyed this month said they want someone else as governor compared to last month. Just 36% of voters said they would back her in a general election election, with a majority of 55% saying they would prefer someone else. That’s even worse than last month, when 48% of voters polled said they would prefer another candidate. The good news for Hochul is that she still dominates in the Democratic primary field, continuing to easily best her lesser-known potential candidates, Rep. Ritchie Torres and Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado. 

The new poll includes Stefanik in a hypothetical Republican primary for the first time, and like Hochul, she emerges as the clear favorite when stacked against potential opponents Rep. Mike Lawler and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman – albeit a little more competitively. Among Republican voters polled, 35% said they would vote for Stefanik, while only 22% backed the second-place Lawler.

Siena did not poll a direct match-up between Hochul and Stefanik, but the results of surveying two hot-button issues could prove to be a boon for the Republican. A plurality of voters – 46% – said that schools should ban transgender girls from playing on girls’ sports teams in schools. Only 22% said they thought schools should be required to allow trans female athletes to play on girls’ teams. Democrats are split on the issue, while a majority of independents said that trans female athletes should be banned from girls’ sports. Messaging around trans rights proved effective for Republicans in the last presidential election, and the Trump administration is now targeting transgender care and history. Some Democrats, including Rep. Tom Suozzi from Long Island, have also begun to distance themselves slightly from the transgender rights movement.

Additionally, the Siena poll found that a plurality of voters surveyed said they believe the state should support the Trump administration’s efforts to “deport migrants living illegally” in New York. That margin – 45% in favor of deportation and 36% against – is closer than the trans athletes question, and a majority of Democrats say that the state should oppose the federal government’s efforts. But a slight majority of 51% of independents still sided with helping the government. Hochul has said she would work with immigration agents to deport undocumented immigrants who commit crimes, but she has defended undocumented immigrants who are otherwise law-abiding community members.