Comparing 2021 and 2025 NYC mayoral primary timelines

There are a lot of differences between the current primary and the 2021 Democratic mayoral race. For one, the seat isn’t open. New York City Mayor Eric Adams is running as an independent in the general election, forgoing the crowded primary. Still, be it Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s coveted endorsement or the release of the final Marist Institute for Public Policy Opinion poll, direct parallels can be drawn between some key recent developments and their counterparts in the 2021 primary. With that in mind, here’s a breakdown of what some of these things might mean. 

THE FINAL MARIST POLL 

2021 primary: On June 14, eight days from the primary, the final Marist poll dropped showing Adams beating Kathryn Garcia by 12 points in the final round of ranked-choice voting.

2025 primary: On June 18, six days from the primary, the latest Marist poll dropped showing former Gov. Andrew Cuomo beating Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani by 10 points in the final round of ranked choice voting.

What is the meaning of this? The final Marist poll in 2021 wasn’t exactly right on the money. Yes, Adams did win, but with a much narrower margin of the vote than predicted. He won 50.4% of the vote after the final round of ranked-choice voting to Garcia’s 49.6%. All that to say, things can move quickly and polls are rarely spot on. It’s also worth noting that a combined 22% of respondents for the 2025 Marist poll said that either they’d yet to decide who to vote for or that they weren’t going to rank Cuomo or Mamdani. These voters could prove critical for the two leading candidates in the waning days of the race. 

THE FIRST CROSS ENDORSEMENT (OF SORTS)

2021 primary: On June 19, three days from the primary, Andrew Yang and Garcia appeared on the campaign trail together – a late-stage alliance forged in an attempt to carve into front-runner Adams lead. But while Yang encouraged his supporters to rank him first and Garcia second, she did not return the favor. 

2025 primary: On June 13, 11 days from the primary, City Comptroller Brad Lander and Mamdani announced the first true cross-endorsement of the mayoral race, sharing their joint commitment to defeating Cuomo. A few days later, on June 16, Mamdani announced a second cross-endorsement with former Assembly Member Michael Blake. State Sen. Jessica Ramos, who is trailing in the polls, endorsed Cuomo on June 6, although he did not follow suit. 

What is the meaning of this? Mamdani and Lander’s partnership was the first true cross-endorsement in a New York City mayoral race since ranked-choice voting was implemented in 2021. As the two highest-ranking progressive candidates in the race, the team-up made sense – as did the timing two days before early voting began. Lander has largely lagged behind Mamdani in the polls, but his arrest by federal immigration authorities on June 17 and the string of praise recently published in The New York Times could give him a boost – thus also benefiting the young Assembly member who is in closer striking distance to Cuomo. Ultimately, it’s hard to know what consequential impact the cross-endorsement will have if any. But going off what precedent we have, it’s ultimately a net positive for both candidates. While Garcia still lost to Adams in 2021, Yang’s one-way support was widely viewed as a last-minute boost for her candidacy.

AOC ENDORSEMENT

2021 primary: On June 5, 17 days before the primary, Ocasio-Cortez endorsed Maya Wiley, appearing with her at a rally outside of City Hall. Beyond that initial announcement, the influential Congress member also praised Wiley in a 30-second ad released late in the race and joined her at a Strokes concert that doubled as a fundraiser. 

2025 primary: On June 5, 19 days before the primary, Ocasio-Cortez endorsed Mamdani as her first choice, City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams second, Lander third, former comptroller Scott Stringer fourth, and state Sen. Zellnor Myrie fifth. She and Mamdani attended the Puerto Rican Day Parade together shortly after that, and then she joined Mamdani for a huge rally on the first day of early voting, delivering an impassioned speech in his support. 

What is the meaning of this? With The New York Times no longer (clearly) endorsing in local elections, Ocasio-Cortez’s endorsement is probably the most coveted stamp of approval a Democratic candidate can get in New York City politics. While it’s true that generally speaking, endorsements often don’t move the needle for candidates, her high profile in the national spotlight puts her support in a different category than most. Ocasio-Cortez’s decision to endorse Wiley sent her campaign into overdrive in the final two weeks before the primary, heightening momentum. The same can be said of her support for Mamdani – generating a wave of energy that further grew as Vermont state Sen. Bernie Sanders’ also backed him on June 17.

THE NEW YORK TIMES WEIGHS IN

2021 primary: On May 10, roughly a month and a half before the primary, The New York Times’ editorial board endorsed Garcia in the mayoral race. 

2025 primary: On June 16, about a week before the primary, the editorial board published a confusing piece cautioning voters not to rank Mamdani

What is the meaning of this? In 2021, the Times editorial board was credited with catapulting Garcia into second place. After announcing last summer it would no longer be weighing in on local elections, the editorial board did not endorse any mayoral candidate in the 2025 primary. Instead, the opinion section convened a 15-member panel of thought leaders to weigh in on the race for a project that published June 12. Then, in a move that simultaneously baffled and enraged many political observers, the editorial board took a stand on the mayoral race after all, publishing a piece on June 16 that essentially recommended readers to not rank Mamdani. With the exception of Lander, none of the candidates came out looking great in the piece. But acknowledging that the primary seems to have narrowed to a two-man contest between Mamdani and Cuomo, the board reluctantly favored the latter.  

EARLY VOTING NUMBERS

2021 primary: As of June 15, seven days before the primary and four days into early voting, roughly 64,000 New Yorkers voted early in the Democratic mayoral race. 

2025 primary (so far): As of June 17, seven days before the primary and four days into early voting, over 130,000 New Yorkers voted early in the Democratic mayoral race. 

What is the meaning of this? At first glance, the swell of early voters – a quarter of whom are between the ages of 25 and 34 – looks good for Mamdani. He dominates Cuomo with this age group. Still, take the data from these first couple of days with a grain of salt. Remember the 2021 primary took place during the COVID-19 pandemic, meaning a lot of people were voting with absentee ballots. Older, more traditionally reliable voters tend to vote in higher numbers on the actual primary day and this is a contingent of voters that back the former governor in far greater numbers than they do Mamdani.