Here’s what the November NYC mayoral election could look like

In most recent New York City elections, the winner of the Democratic primary is a shoe-in in November. That would make Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani, who appears to have pulled off a stunning upset in Tuesday’s Democratic mayoral primary, a sure thing for City Hall. But this year, for reasons that include an ex-governor desperate for a political resurrection and an indicted (but now no longer indicted) incumbent mayor, it’s not that simple.

Here’s who the players (and possible players) are in November.

Zohran Mamdani – Democratic nominee

The 33-year-old democratic socialist Assembly member pulled off a stunning upset over Gov. Andrew Cuomo on Tuesday as first-choice votes were counting, making him all but the assured Democratic nominee. While it’s true that the New York City general election electorate is more ideologically diverse than that of the Democratic primary electorate – the city has Republicans! – the city is still largely Democratic. “He’s going to be the next mayor in New York City,” Democratic strategist Trip Yang predicted on election night. 

Curtis Sliwa – Republican nominee

A mainstay in city elections, Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa will rally the city’s growing Republican base. Even voter registration disadvantages aside, Sliwa faces a tough task with an unpopular Republican President Donald Trump in the White House.

Mayor Eric Adams – independent candidate

Mayor Eric Adams and his campaign are feeling pretty good after Mamdani’s success on Tuesday night. Mamdani’s far-left identity is exactly the foil Adams has been hoping for – whereas a Cuomo as democratic nominee would have eaten into Adams’ same base. “The phone’s been ringing off the hook,” said Adams campaign spokesperson Todd Shapiro on Tuesday night, suggesting that Adams will pick up Cuomo’s would-be supporters. The Adams campaign was already scheduled to hold a campaign kickoff on the City Hall steps on Thursday.

Jim Walden – independent candidate

Lawyer Jim Walden will be more in the spotlight this summer as an independent candidate. His base of supporters remains to be determined, but he could pitch himself as a moderate unscarred by scandal like Adams.

Andrew Cuomo – a potential independent candidate

Despite securing an independent party line to run on as a fail safe earlier this spring – called “Fight and Deliver” – Cuomo didn’t commit to actually running as an independent in November when he appeared onstage at his election watch party on Tuesday to announce he had called Mamdani to congratulate him on winning the Democratic primary. He said he would “look at the numbers” and continue to have conversations – notably less than a stated intention to run.