How much will AOC’s endorsement help Zohran Mamdani?

The most highly anticipated endorsement in New York City Democratic politics dropped on Thursday morning when Rep. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez officially backed surging socialist Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani in the mayoral primary.

Since President Donald Trump returned to the White House, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has grown her national role in politics, appearing side-by-side with U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders at “Fighting Oligarchy” rallies across the U.S. In May, two polls showed that Democratic voters would prefer Ocasio-Cortez to U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer by around 20% in a hypothetical 2028 primary.

In New York City, political observers have been more focused on her endorsement in the Democratic mayoral primary. She finally delivered on Thursday – just nine days before early voting was due to start – throwing her support to Mamdani and encouraging her supporters to rank City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams as No. 2, city Comptroller Brad Lander as No. 3, former city Comptroller Scott Stringer as No. 4 and state Sen. Zellnor Myrie as No. 5. She also said unequivocally that New Yorkers should not rank former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who is the front-runner in the race.

Will it matter? Political endorsements don’t always move the needle. “Most political scientists who study endorsements don't think they make that much difference,” said John Mollenkopf, a political scientist at the City University of New York. Mollenkopf, the director of the Center for Urban Research, thinks voters have more pressing concerns, principally that “we want somebody who knows how to run the place.” Recent polls show that housing affordability, crime and economic issues are the top concerns among voters in New York.

When it comes to Ocasio-Cortez’s stamp of approval, though, Mollenkopf said her high profile in the national spotlight can bring real benefits to a campaign. “In this case I think it'll make some difference,” he said. “And in this tight race, some difference is valuable.”

AOC’s 2021 endorsements

Lander certainly knows the impact that Ocasio-Cortez’s endorsement can have. In 2021, she endorsed him in the Democratic primary race for New York City comptroller, helping to solidify his stature among progressives across the city. Lander experienced an immediate and sustained boost after Ocasio-Cortez gave her stamp of approval. He ultimately ended up with roughly 52% of the vote, defeating then-City Council Speaker Corey Johnson who had been seen as the overwhelming favorite in the race.

Ocasio-Cortez also endorsed progressive mayoral candidate Maya Wiley, a political and legal analyst on MSNBC, though that endorsement came relatively late in the game, just one week before the start of early voting. “Getting AOC’s endorsement, getting Senator Warren's endorsement, you know, there were a number of progressive endorsements that came in kind of around the same time, and it was huge,” said Maya Rupert, Wiley’s campaign manager. “Momentum-wise, it made such a difference.”

The stamp of approval from Ocasio-Cortez sent Wiley’s campaign into overdrive in the final two weeks before election day. “ The difference was definitely measurable,” Rupert said. “Her endorsing, sending out an email to her list – we were able to convert people who were supporting (Ocasio-Cortez) into people who would support Maya.”

The 2021 mayoral primary was the first test of ranked-choice voting in New York, with voters asked to rank their top five picks for mayor. As other candidates were knocked out of the race in successive rounds of ballot counting, Wiley remained in second place, behind Eric Adams. She was eliminated in the eighth round when she was surpassed by former sanitation commissioner Kathryn Garcia, who ultimately lost narrowly to Adams. 

Timing is everything

Ocasio-Cortez endorsed Wiley very late in the 2021 cycle, and some progressives worried that she waited too long to endorse a mayoral candidate this year. Rupert said that early endorsements can be more helpful since they often lead to an influx of fundraising. “Yes, in an ideal world, moments like that happen earlier, so you know the money is coming in and you know you can allocate it, you can spend it differently,” she said. “Those kinds of things are huge, especially in a place like New York where that money that comes in, it’s getting matched.” 

For every dollar a New York City resident contributes, the city matches it with $8 in public funds, up to a maximum match of $2,000 per eligible contributor. Ocasio-Cortez’s endorsement won’t have any effect on Mamdani’s fundraising, since he has already reached the $8 million fundraising cap, but it could help out Adams, who entered the race relatively late and only recently qualified for matching funds.

It can be tricky to time endorsements to maximize both early fundraising and attention from voters. Rupert said that if a high-profile endorsement comes too soon, “ it may not have the same impact earlier in a campaign.” But when timed well, a high-profile endorsement can push a candidate into the front-runner position. “When you are looking at a race where voters really start to pay attention and start to make decisions this close to the election, big endorsements like that will have the momentum that will make it start to seem like, oh wow, this person can do it,” Rupert said. 

Even a high-profile and heavily publicized campaign endorsement can’t win an election on its own. “At the end of the day, a candidate has to make their case on the merits,” Rupert said. But the “AOC factor” is undeniable. “The difference that it really makes is if it’s someone you trust. If she says I trust this person, and shows that it's a real endorsement - that's what makes it so valuable,” Rupert said. 

A progressive kingmaker?

In the weeks leading up to Ocasio-Cortez’s endorsement, much speculation focused on whether she would give her No. 1 ranking to Mamdani or Lander. 

The congressional representative is close to Lander, a longtime progressive figure in New York City politics who co-founded the City Council’s Progressive Caucus, and endorsed him for comptroller in 2021. At the same time, Ocasio-Cortez has much in common with Mamdani, a fellow democratic socialist whose Assembly district overlaps with much of her own in western Queens. 

“There's a real opportunity for New York City to elect a democratic socialist as mayor. AOC is arguably the most influential progressive politician in the country,” Rupert said. “I do think, honestly, some of the media attention on her endorsement is less about this race and more about: is she going to take on this role as progressive kingmaker?”

Although some progressives have quietly suggested that Mamdani is too young and inexperienced – a criticism that was also leveled against Ocasio-Cortez when she ran for Congress back in 2018 – the 33-year-old state legislator has vaulted to second place in the polls, while Lander has struggled to break out of the pack.

Ultimately, Ocasio-Cortez went with Mamdani, who has vaulted to second place in the polls. “Assemblymember Mamdani has demonstrated a real ability on the ground to put together a coalition of working-class New Yorkers that is strongest to lead the pack,” she told The New York Times. “In the final stretch of the race, we need to get very real about that.”

Ocasio-Cortez hasn’t limited her involvement in New York City primaries to the mayoral race.

In May, Ocasio-Cortez gave her stamp of approval to a slew of City Council candidates, including Brooklyn’s Shahana Hanif. The incumbent is facing a competitive primary challenge from Maya Kornberg, a senior research fellow at the Brennan Center for Justice who has described herself as a pragmatic progressive. 

That endorsement could have an impact in the race, which experienced an influx of cash from PACs following questions about Hanif’s stance on the war in Gaza, pro-Palestinian protests and her response to an antisemitic incident in her district. Hanif said she categorically condemned Hamas’ atrocities and told City & State that she “stood against hate in all forms – antisemitism, Islamophobia, all types of violence and discrimination.”

Increasing turnout

In New York City, voter turnout in Democratic local primary elections during non-presidential election years has historically been low. In 2021, 23% of registered voters turned out to vote in the mayoral primary. While it was the most participated-in local election in decades, it was still low by general election standards.

Rupert thinks any endorsement from Ocasio-Cortez in a marquee race has the potential to change voter turnout. “ When you think about low propensity voters, young voters, voters of color… And if you hear a name like Andrew Cuomo and you feel like he's inevitable, you might say, ‘I'm not going to bother.’” She believes the AOC factor can change that view and inspire people to engage in the democratic process. “That is going to make a difference to some people who otherwise were planning on staying home.”

Early voting in New York’s Democratic primary begins on June 14.