Mamdani leads Cuomo by 19 points, while Stefanik is catching up to Hochul

Gov. Kathy Hochul’s lead against potential GOP opponent Rep. Elise Stefanik has shrunk since June, while Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani continues to lead the pack among New York City mayoral candidates heading towards November. 

A new poll from Siena College of registered voters in New York found that Hochul would handily beat Stefanik in a head-to-head race by a margin of 45% to 31%, but that 14 percentage point lead is down significantly from the 23 point advantage that Hochul had in the last poll released July 1, when the governor led Stefanik 47%-24%. The Republican member of Congress has not made an official decision on whether she will run for governor, but she has been consistently attacking Hochul’s performance as governor for weeks.

Despite making some progress in closing the gap between herself and Hochul, Stefanik still has work to do if she wants to make up the rest. Voters polled remained split in terms of their familiarity with Stefanik, with 49% saying they were very or somewhat familiar with her, and 46% saying they were not. Asked specifically about whether she had the experience to be governor, a slight plurality of those surveyed said that she did not, with independents who had an opinion effectively split. And 49% of voters included in the survey said that Stefanik becoming governor would be bad for New York.

Things are looking much better for Mamdani, however, in Siena’s first polling data about the general election for New York City mayor. Although the sample size was small (New York City voters made up only a portion of the overall pool surveyed across the state), the Democratic nominee held a commanding 19 percentage point lead among registered voters over runner-up Andrew Cuomo. Mamdani also commanded the support of a majority of Democratic voters in the poll. However, Cuomo still led the pack of four candidates – which also includes Republican Curtis Sliwa and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams – among Black and Jewish voters, with whom Mamdani underperformed in the Democratic primary. The poll highlighted a significant generation gap, with Mamdani leading Cuomo by 49 percentage points among voters aged 18 to 34 but trailing Cuomo by 6 points among voters 55 years and older.

Siena College also polled Mamdani’s statewide favorability for the first time. Statewide, the surveyed voters had a net negative view of the Democratic nominee – with 37% having an unfavorable opinion and 28% having a positive one – a fairly strong plurality of those in New York City had a favorable view of Mamdani. His name recognition is still not as high as Cuomo’s, but the former governor has an even lower favorability rating than Mamdani – with a majority of 61% of voters polled holding a poor opinion of him. That includes majorities across parties and ideologies, and among both statewide and New York City voters.

On the policy front, Siena found that registered voters were split on a proposal to change the state constitution to permit mid-decade redistricting should another state do so first. Hochul has championed the prospect of gerrymandering New York’s congressional districts in response to Texas Republicans’ attempt to add more GOP districts in the southern state, comparing the opposing efforts to fighting a war. But voters apparently aren’t sold on it, with just 35% saying they support the idea of retaliatory mid-cycle redistricting and 34% saying they oppose it. Not even a majority of Democrats back the measure, with only a plurality of 45% saying they support it.