Canadian tourists aren’t crossing the border to visit NY amid Trump tensions

During the War of 1812, American forces at Fort Niagara led a raid across the Niagara River and razed the Canadian town of Niagara-on-the-Lake, leaving townspeople to fend for themselves on a cold December night. British forces based in Canada later retaliated, turning Buffalo to cinders. Relations between the U.S. and Canada haven’t reached that level of hostility yet, but even if the two nations aren’t lobbing bombs over the border at each other (though it has been proposed), a tariff kerfuffle has New York feeling the effects of a less friendly relationship with the state’s northern neighbors.

Farmers and manufacturers were the first to feel the effects of the trade war, with the cost of raw materials for agriculture and production rising significantly due to new import tariffs. For Canadian tourists, the tariffs have worsened an exchange rate between Canada and the U.S. that was already more favorable to Americans. Now $1 is equal to $1.38 Canadian. Even with attractions like Lake Placid and New York City, many Canadians are calculating that a summer vacation would make more sense in British Columbia or New Brunswick, for example, rather than in New York.

Beyond the economic factors, many Canadians feel that the U.S. does not view Canada as an equal. A Pew Research Center survey in July found that just 34% of Canadians have a favorable opinion of the U.S., a historic low, and 59% view the U.S. as the country’s largest threat. President Donald Trump referring to the country as “the 51st state” naturally didn’t sit well, but the misgivings may stem less from wounded pride than from the economic harm the U.S. is capable of inflicting, with 77% of respondents viewing the U.S. as a threat to Canada’s economy.

“I talk about the impact directly on Western New York because I know it’s real. I took my grandbaby – first visit to Buffalo ever, she’s 3 years old last weekend. Canal side – I’ve always looked at that and said, ‘I want to have grandkids someday because they’ll like this so much.’ And finally the grandkids are here,” Gov. Kathy Hochul said earlier this month. “I said to the leadership at Explore & More – an extraordinary children’s museum – I said, ‘What’s it been like for you?’ He says, ‘We’re devastated. We used to get 1,400 Canadians visiting every month, now it’s 40.’”

Border crossings from Canada to the U.S. have also fallen since the trade war began. In July, there were just 1.7 million border crossings, down 22% from a year ago. Western New York has felt the impact more than other regions, as Canadian tourists are responsible for 35% to 40% of its tourism revenue. New York City is also expecting a 10% dip in Canadian visitors.

In June, U.S. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer decried the effects that Trump’s trade war has had on New York’s tourism industry.

“Upstate NY’s Main Streets are paying the price for Trump’s tariffs with higher costs and fewer tourists. New York wants to welcome our Canadian friends with open arms, but Trump has crushed NY’s summer tourism industry by driving them away with his reckless trade war with Canada,” Schumer said in a statement. “Since Trump took office, we have seen over 2 million fewer travelers cross over the Upstate NY-Canada border, and nearly 500,000 fewer in July, which is usually the height of tourism season.”

The economic harm comes at a time when the state’s tourism industry is otherwise nearing a return to pre-pandemic levels. Mark Dorr, president of the New York State Hospitality & Tourism Association, said that July is the biggest month for tourism, and New York’s hotel occupancy was flat compared to last July, while the average daily rate was up 4%. The state is doing slightly better than the country as a whole, which saw hotel occupancy drop by 1% and the average daily rate remain flat.

Specific regions like the North Country and Western New York are feeling a very targeted pain due to their proximity to the Canadian border, and Dorr suggested that the state’s growth in tourism is largely coming from domestic tourists, now that more Canadians are staying away.

“In marketing to those Canadian visitors, because of the feelings between the two, they’ve really scaled back their marketing efforts there because they get some negative feedback, like, ‘Hey, we’re not coming no matter what. So stop marketing here,’” Dorr told City & State. “So they’ve kind of changed their marketing strategy, and made it more domestic to try to draw from within the state or the Northeast to fill that gap.”

Pitching New York to other states as a travel destination isn’t the heaviest lift (Morgan Wallen be damned). Between the multitude of attractions in New York City, from Broadway to the Yankees, and the natural beauty on display at Niagara Falls and in the Catskills, there are many places for the state to promote. Even if current projections appear mixed, New York is still coming off a record year for tourism. Dorr said that he expects the industry to rebound back to pre-pandemic levels as soon as next year.

But what if New York still has a soft spot for its friendly neighbors to the north? Some businesses are offering deals to court Canadian visitors. Some New Yorkers, like the governor, just want things to go back to normal. “What will it take to get things back on track? We love you. It wasn’t us, it was him,” Hochul said.