Hochul’s lead over Stefanik grows to 25 points in new poll

Things are looking up for Gov. Kathy Hochul, according to a new Siena College poll. Her favorability is up, New Yorkers think she’s hard-working and a majority of registered voters said they prefer her over likely GOP opponent Rep. Elise Stefanik as the state’s executive.

In a survey of 802 registered voters, Hochul grew her lead over Stefanik to 25 percentage points, a whole 11 points higher than last month. It’s the first time since Siena started polling the pair head-to-head in June that Hochul hit over 50% support, sitting at 52% to Stefanik’s 27%. The incumbent governor led with a majority of support in New York City and the suburbs, and with a plurality upstate. And while independents slightly favored Stefanik last month, Hochul now leads with unaffiliated voters, 43%-25%.

This is a big improvement for the governor since August, when her lead over Stefanik narrowed  precipitously as the Republican picked up more support. The new September numbers show that wasn’t part of a trend – though with over a year until the gubernatorial election, plenty can still change.

A strong electoral lead isn’t the only thing Hochul has going for her in the new poll. When asked whether she “work(s) hard for the people of New York,” 54% of registered voters surveyed said that she does. A similar 53% majority said the governor demonstrates “honesty and integrity.” Near-majorities also said they believed Hochul provides “decisive leadership” and “get(s) things done.”

Hochul’s favorability also improved slightly in the latest poll. “While a 45-42% favorability rating for a Democratic governor in a state where nearly half the voters are Democrats may not sound like a major accomplishment, in the case of Governor Hochul, it’s the first time her favorability rating has been positive since April, and it is her best favorability rating since January 2024,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said. And the governor’s job approval rating was the highest it has been in well over two years.

The new poll – conducted between Sept. 8 and 10, with a 4.2% margin of error – was released fresh on the heels of Hochul’s endorsement of Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee in the race for New York City mayor. The governor had declined to do so for months following the democratic socialist’s shocking primary victory, even as other Democrats coalesced around the candidate. The decision to endorse could serve Hochul’s interests in New York City, where Democrats gave Mamdani a resounding win in June. But it’s too soon to see how the choice to endorse him will affect her numbers. 

Hochul may also be experiencing a boon from her public opposition to President Donald Trump, which she has leaned heavily into since he returned to office. The new poll has Trump’s favorability at a two-year low, with his worst job approval since the beginning of his second term. A majority of 57% of New York voters polled said that Trump should not send the National Guard into New York, a prospect Hochul has strongly opposed. And an even larger majority said that the president’s spending bill – which Democrats have attacked relentlessly – will threaten necessary health care programs.