Hochul still leads Stefanik, while New Yorkers warm to Mamdani

In a head-to-head matchup, Gov. Kathy Hochul leads Rep. Elise Stefanik by nearly 20 points in the race for governor. And one of the Republican’s main lines of attack – New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani – may not land the way she wants, as New York voters express support for key parts of his agenda. 

A new Siena poll of 801 registered New York voters found that 49% percent of those surveyed would vote for Hochul if the election for governor were held today, compared to 30% who would back Stefanik. It’s a slight decrease for both candidates compared to last month, with Hochul dropping below the 50% mark, but not a significant change. The governor performs even better against Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, who announced his campaign last week. Hochul would beat him 50%-25%. 

In more bad news for the GOP, New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani’s ratings have gone up compared to last month. When Mamdani won the mayoral election, Republicans rejoiced at having a far-left boogeyman to run against. But so far, the numbers suggest that strategy may not work. Statewide, 46% of New York voters had a favorable view of the democratic socialist incoming mayor, while 31% had a negative view. That’s a fairly stark change from last month, when statewide voters were split on Mamdani, 40%-40%. And a slightly higher percentage of voters in the state – 49%, compared to 45% last month – now say that his election will be good for New York City.

The poll also found Mamdani’s pitch for universal child care funded by increasing income taxes on people making more than $1 million per year is a hit with New Yorkers. Two-thirds of voters polled said they supported free child care from infancy until pre-K. “It is supported upstate and downstate, and other than Republicans and conservatives, it is supported by a majority – often an overwhelming majority – of every demographic group,” said Siena pollster Steve Greenberg.

Just 50% of New York City voters polled said they backed Mamdani’s free bus plan, which would be funded by a tax increase on city residents. Across demographics for that proposal, New Yorkers were far more split – though the bare majority is still better than opposition. 

Both Hochul and Stefanik hold strong leads in their respective primaries. The poll has Hochul trouncing Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado 56%-13%. Meanwhile, 48% of Republicans polled backed Stefanik, compared to just 17% for Blakeman. “For Blakeman and Delgado, the need to become more known to voters becomes a pressing issue six months before the primaries, with each of them unfamiliar to more than two-thirds of all voters, and both of them unfamiliar to a majority of voters in their respective parties,” Greenberg said.