In purple Suffolk County, Democrats are weighing a leadership change

For over a quarter century, a single man has controlled Democratic politics in Suffolk County. Town of Babylon Supervisor Rich Schaffer has led the county Democratic Party with a degree of political acumen and cross-party dealmaking rarely seen in today’s hyperpartisan political landscape. He has received his share of criticisms from members of his own party for his strategies, which often includes backroom deals that benefited Republicans in order to keep Democratic control in other parts of the county, but Schaffer’s control has been ironclad, with few formally challenging his leadership.

This year, however, is different. For the first time, Schaffer is facing a spirited, serious challenge from Southold Democratic Committee Chair Kathryn Casey Quigley. Although she still faces long odds, both her challenge of Schaffer and the enthusiasm surrounding her insurgent campaign are evidence that even one of the last remaining and most powerful Democratic machine leaders in New York may not be immune to the political headwinds in the party favoring radical changes to the status quo.

“There’s an anti-establishment elixir in the water supply these days, so it’s a reflection of that bigger trend that you see from here to California,” said Lawrence Levy, executive dean of Hofstra University’s National Center for Suburban Studies. “It’s also a reflection of somebody being in office for a very long time and having made, even if it’s just a few decisions a year, they add up to many that left folks upset and wishing they could do something about it.”

Schaffer, who did not respond to multiple interview requests, has served as chair of the Suffolk County Democratic Party since 2000. In the role, he gained a reputation as a shrewd political operator and dealmaker willing to work not only with Republicans, but the Conservative Party as well. And not just when it came to judgeships, which are rarely contested on Long Island with candidates appearing on multiple party lines. It’s not uncommon for voters to see Democrats running on the right-wing lines as well as part of deals that helped Schaffer maintain a level of control over county and town politics while Republicans held state-level seats that helped keep Democrats out of control in Albany for decades.

Backroom dealings still take place. As a source with direct knowledge of the situation told City & State, Schaffer urged Democratic candidates for county clerk and county comptroller to accept Conservative Party judgeship nominations in order to vacate the ballot line in Suffolk. The source said both candidates were initially recruited because they are lawyers and therefore could accept a judicial nomination if Schaffer needed them off the ballot to maintain a deal between the Republican and Democratic parties.

Newsday reported the clerk candidate accepted, but the comptroller candidate will remain in the race. It’s a somewhat surprising outcome that a Schaffer ally, like comptroller candidate Jon Estreich was, declined to play ball.

Still, times have changed drastically in the past decade. Over the past several election cycles, the once-purple Suffolk County has become increasingly Republican, starting with a dramatic swing in favor of President Donald Trump in 2016 that has only grown stronger since. Today, all countywide positions, except for one, are held by Republicans, and the county legislature is controlled by the GOP. Just five years ago, Democrats had control of Suffolk’s legislature, the county executive’s seat and district attorney’s office. Eight of the 10 towns that make up Suffolk are Republican-controlled as well. The exceptions: Schaffer’s Babylon and Casey Quigley’s Southold. First, Democrats flipped control of the Southold supervisor seat and town board in 2023, growing that majority last year. But Casey Quigley said that happened in spite of Schaffer, not because of him.

“(Schaffer) never made anything difficult for us out in Southold, but I repeatedly heard and saw that there was just a lack of leadership, organizing and action at the county level,” Casey Quigley told City & State. Later, she added, “People just keep doubling down on the same approach, so it made me really fired up to want to create some change.”

But with many seats on the 2,000-plus member Suffolk County Democratic Committee empty, Casey Quigley saw an avenue to foster that change: She could reinvigorate it with new members eager to build a refreshed party apparatus. She said she sought to avoid competitive elections where possible, and many of the candidates she recruited were appointed to fill uncontested county committee seats after gathering the necessary petitions. But a total of 81 candidates she backed – who will in turn back her for leadership – wound up in contested races in June against Schaffer endorsees. In the end, 73 of Casey Quigley’s candidates prevailed, giving her some much-needed validation that her push for leadership change is not falling on deaf ears.

Since party leadership is voted on by all county committee members, the future of the committee chair position and leadership of the Suffolk County Democratic Party will ultimately come down to a numbers game when the county committee meets in the fall. Casey Quigley improved her odds by getting new members elected, as she seeks to sway sitting members to her side. Even getting more empty seats filled with enthusiastic Democrats who can help shape the party apparatus is a win for the insurgent, regardless of the outcome of her own race; Casey Quigley said the committee has “essentially doubled” in size since she and her team launched in December.

“When I began my campaign, the Democratic committee was essentially a shell, especially in Western Suffolk,” Casey Quigley said. “So my goal was to rebuild the party twofold, both to have people who would vote for me, but also to give the party renewed strength.”

For now, the odds likely remain in Schaffer’s favor to retain his seat at the head of the party. “Team Schaffer has secured well over the majority of committee members for the entire Suffolk County Democratic Committee,” Schaffer declared in a Facebook video posted before the June 23 primary and following some contentious court cases around petition objections over candidates on the ballot. The math is more complicated than getting a simple majority of committee members in a convoluted weighted voting system that insiders told Newsday still favors Schaffer.

But the unprecedented grassroots energy from Casey Quigley’s challenge indicates that the anti-establishment wave sweeping the Democratic Party may finally reach Suffolk County and topple the longtime kingmaker – even if it doesn’t happen this year. Though one Suffolk politico, who requested anonymity to speak candidly, predicted at least a close outcome this year. “I think Richie survives this time,” the person said. “I’m not sure about two years from now.”

The question for that Suffolk politico – as was the question after recent victories by Democratic Socialists of America and progressive candidates across the state – is how long does the current anti-establishment fervor last? And in Suffolk County, will Schaffer be able to hold it off after years of relative complacency?

As the Suffolk politico noted, even when Schaffer and former Democratic County Executive Steve Bellone were at each other’s throats behind the scenes, Bellone didn’t leverage his power to field a real attempt to directly challenge Schaffer’s long-held party control. “You got to do the grassroots, get the numbers, get the committee people out here, and (Casey Quigley), to her credit, she got committee people. … So she knows what she’s doing,” the source said.

Levy said he’s curious to see how Schaffer reacts to the insurgency following both the leadership vote and the November elections – regardless of how both go. “Will he say, ‘You know what? I get what they’re doing. I get why people are upset. Maybe I need to rethink how I’m going about things,’” Levy said. “That would probably be for the benefit of the Suffolk Democratic Party … and whether he resists the urge to basically scourge the earth of his enemies, that’s really what I would be looking for.”