Hochul leads Blakeman 14 points in Quinnipiac poll

With less than two weeks before Election Day, Quinnipiac University has Gov. Kathy Hochul with a comfortable 14 percentage point lead over Bruce Blakeman, her Republican challenger and the Nassau County executive. 

The new poll of 1,167 likely voters conducted between Oct. 15 and 19 found Hochul ahead 55%-41%. That indicates a slightly closer race than Quinnipiac predicted one month ago, when the poll had Hochul leading by a 19 percentage-point margin, but still suggests a comfortable cushion for the incumbent. Among those polled, 4% remained undecided. The poll has a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points. 

The September poll from Quinnipiac was an outlier at the time, coming out the same day as a Siena University survey that showed Hochul ahead by just 9 points. Wednesday’s survey is closer to polling averages, and is more closely aligned with public surveys this month from Marist University and Emerson College, which had Hochul leading by 11 and 12 percentage points, respectively.

Wednesday’s poll also has Blakeman with a 51%-44% lead among independents, a reversal compared to a month ago. That also puts Quinnipiac more in line with other public polling that has found the Republican with the edge among unaffiliated voters.

At this point in 2022, Quinnipiac had Hochul leading then-Republican challenger Lee Zeldin by only 4 percentage points. She went on to win in November with a roughly 6-point margin, the closest gubernatorial race in two decades.

Hochul’s favorability went down compared to the September poll, entering into negative territory as 46% viewed her unfavorably compared to 45% who viewed her well. She was at a 3 percentage point net positive a month ago. But Blakeman is also in the negatives, with 40% of those polled having an unfavorable opinion and nearly a quarter still not knowing who he is. However, he cut into his unknowns, which dropped from a third of likely voters not knowing him a month ago.

"As Republican Bruce Blakeman becomes better known, he’s improved his image among independents,” Mary Snow, Quinnipiac University poll assistant, said in a statement. “But with less than two weeks to go until the final votes are cast, he faces an uphill battle as Hochul maintains a double-digit lead.”

Among polled voters, cost of living was the top issue for 22% of them, the highest amount. The economy was the top issue for the second-highest number of voters, ranking first for 19% of those who took the survey. Hochul led among both pools of voters by wide margins, 71%-24% for those who ranked cost of living first, and 72%-27% for those most worried about the economy. 

Immigration was the third-leading issue, with 13% of likely voters saying it’s their top concern, the only other topic to hit double digits. Blakeman led among those who ranked immigration their biggest worry, 71%-28%.