Why did Bruce Blakeman go 100% MAGA?

At the start of August, Republican gubernatorial nominee Bruce Blakeman found himself in Albany, fielding questions from members of the state Capitol press corps, who rarely see the Nassau County executive. Among the questions: Do you disagree with President Donald Trump on anything?

“I’m going to come out in the next couple of weeks and talk about things that I think are important that the administration may not agree upon,” Blakeman told the reporters in Albany. He didn’t give specifics, but alluded to “philosophical differences” on issues pertaining to the economy, immigration and guest visa programs.

It was a departure from his previous response to the question in April, when he said he would not disagree with the president in public and “would never be disloyal” to his “good friend.”

Once a prototypical Long Island Republican moderate, the Nassau County executive has leaned into his closeness to Trump in recent years, modeling his political style after the combative president. Blakeman has taken lessons from Trump’s bombastic rhetorical style and become a leading conservative figure on culture war issues and public safety, creating what has been criticized as an armed civilian militia and agreeing to establish a first-in-the-nation ban on trans women athletes competing on women’s teams at county facilities.

Blakeman’s shift in persona raised his profile after his upset victory over former Nassau County Executive Laura Curran, a Democrat, in 2021 and in large part is what enabled him to become a statewide contender. But that was when Trump was out of office. Now, Trump is the deeply unpopular sitting president, and Blakeman is running for governor in what’s expected to be a “blue wave” midterm year.

“He can’t distance himself from Trump – he’s too closely aligned,” said Republican strategist and pollster Mike Dawidziak. “I think he would look bad doing it. I think he would look like a phony if he even tried to do it.”

And he hasn’t tried. Just days after the Albany press conference, Blakeman invited Trump to Nassau County for what was billed as a government event on crime rates and police training, but realistically served as a campaign rally. Trump returned to New York again this month for a bona fide campaign event in Syracuse, also at the invitation of Blakeman.

The Republican candidate for governor has still offered only scant details on where he differs from the president politically, aside from reiterating his support for a guest worker visa program for undocumented immigrants not backed by the White House and pointing to his being pro-choice in an interview with City & State, as well as in the Oct. 13 gubernatorial debate.

Despite their closeness, Blakeman hasn’t made his relationship with the president an explicit focal point of his campaign strategy. In fact, he rarely mentions Trump on the campaign trail, doesn’t directly invoke him in a slew of political videos and hardly says his name in his many posts on X. Politico New York even reported in April that Blakeman removed mention of working with the president from his campaign website.

“This is a campaign about issues and trust,” he told City & State in a recent interview. “And Kathy Hochul is on the wrong side of the issues, and people don’t trust her.”

But others say he doesn’t talk about Trump for another reason. “Donald Trump does not poll well in the state of New York. He has had a relationship with Blakeman, whether it’s personal (or) professional, or both,” state Sen. Anthony Palumbo, a Long Island Republican, told City & State. “I think that’s really going to loom large in this race.”

Simultaneously, Blakeman hasn’t actively sought to distance himself from Trump as much as other Republicans in competitive races, despite Trump’s unpopularity in New York and among the independent voters that Republicans need in order to win statewide races. The Trumpy strategy appears to be a clear appeal to the GOP base to drive a strong turnout. And the relatively narrow lead Gov. Kathy Hochul has held across many polls suggests the governor is at least somewhat vulnerable. But one-third of voters still don’t know who Blakeman is, according to the most recent Siena University poll. And if he’s unable to capture moderate and independent voters, the strategy may not be enough for him to become the first Republican governor in 20 years.

The MAGA math 

Blakeman holds some traditionally more moderate positions that put him at odds with staunch conservatives, including being pro-choice and being in favor of some gun control measures. They helped him get elected in purple Nassau County and, in theory, could aid him in a statewide race, but those views don't necessarily rally the base. Some conservatives were therefore wary of the Long Islander when he announced his campaign late last year, essentially forcing out Rep. Elise Stefanik, the upstate right-wing firebrand who had already entered the race. Stefanik cited the impact a heated primary would have and a desire to spend more time with her son when she dropped out and decided not to seek reelection. Trump endorsed Blakeman as “MAGA all the way” one day later.

So who does Blakeman need nowadays?

“He’s nowhere without the base, and the base is very fickle,” said JC Polanco, a professor of political science at the University of Mount Saint Vincent and former Republican turned independent. “The MAGA base is a cult of personality, and I think that Blakeman understands this.”

Trump all but acknowledged that fickleness less than a month before Election Day, pleading with the thousands gathered in Syracuse for Blakeman’s rally. “When I’m on the ballot, we win everything. When I’m not on the ballot, 48% of you don’t vote,” the president said, lauding Blakeman as a “fantastic man.” “Please pretend I’m on the freaking ballot!”

Hochul’s campaign jumped on those comments, hearing a direct validation of its cornerstone strategy of tying Blakeman to Trump. Her ads and public statements mention the president constantly.

Ryan Radulovacki, a spokesperson for Hochul’s campaign, reiterated many of the same points the campaign has previously made about Trump in a statement to City & State. “Donald Trump is deeply unpopular in New York for a reason: he’s raised costs on everything from groceries to gas, his rogue, untrained ICE agents have caused chaos in our streets, and he’s attacked New Yorkers’ healthcare,” he said. “Bruce Blakeman has supported every single one of those things, and has said himself he ‘would never be disloyal’ to Trump. Three weeks from now he’ll see where that gets him.”

But Joe Borelli, a consultant and the former New York City Council minority leader, said Blakeman would be tied to Trump even if he didn’t lean into his relationship with the president – so he may as well appeal to the growing number of people who voted for Trump over the past three presidential elections.

“Trump got 3.6 million votes in New York state (in 2024),” Borelli said. “Trying to turn those people out is probably a more likely scenario to win than convincing people who hate Israel, believe in letting everyone out of jails (and) want to make energy prices higher to vote for Bruce Blakeman.”

Borelli acknowledged that circumstances in 2022 – when Trump was out of office and former Rep. Lee Zeldin lost to Hochul by just 6 points – were more favorable, but he expressed confidence that Blakeman is on a winning path. “Our best result in all those races was a downstate Republican from Long Island who was made out to be tied to Trump,” he said.

“I think people saw how close things were four years ago, and are now saying to themselves, ‘Wow, if we get those extra votes, we can actually elect the Republican governor,’” said Assembly Minority Leader Ed Ra. He said strong turnout among that base will be crucial. “To win statewide in New York, you obviously need those crossover votes, but we do need our base to be energized and engaged,” he said.

Threading the needle

With Trump in office now, the president may serve as an albatross for Blakeman, even as he attempts to appeal to the GOP base and the voters who backed the president in 2024. Recent polling has Trump’s job approval in New York consistently 20 to 30 points underwater. And a Siena University poll from September found the majority of likely voters considered Trump’s endorsement of Blakeman a negative.

“He’s taking an extraordinary risk staying so close to the president,” said one longtime Republican strategist, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “Republicans across the country are sprinting from Trump, while Blakeman is standing firm. He knows that without Trump voters showing up on Nov. 3, there’s zero chance of victory.” After all, it’s no accident many leading Onondaga County Republicans skipped Trump’s Syracuse appearance.

Still, conservatives’ previous concerns over Blakeman’s past moderate stances appear to have evaporated. “I’ve been all over, and I have seen literally thousands upon thousands of Bruce Blakeman’s signs,” said state Sen. George Borello, a Western New York conservative and chair of the state Senate Republican’s campaign arm. “I can count on one hand the number of Kathy Hochul signs. So anecdotally, he has done an excellent job of energizing the base.”

But whether that’s because of the strength of Blakeman’s campaign or of anti-Hochul fervor is less clear. The Blakeman campaign has hit some bumps in the road. It has already spent a ton of money to get his name out there. Between mid-July and mid-September, he spent over $10.5 million on the election, per campaign finance records, including hundreds of thousands of dollars on those ubiquitous lawn signs Borello mentioned.

Hochul spent a similar amount, but she had more than $18 million left in her account to spend in the race’s final month, Blakeman had only $178,000. That’s the smallest sum a gubernatorial candidate has had at that point in the election ever – and it may be even less when accounting for donations made over the contribution limit, erroneously reported repeated donations, potential mistakes in public matching claims and generally poor recordkeeping.

Republicans who spoke to City & State are banking in part on Hochul’s unpopularity to depress Democratic turnout, despite conventional wisdom that this midterm is looking like it will be a Democratic wave year. They point to polling – namely Siena – that has Blakeman within 9 points of the incumbent, as well as historically lackluster support of Hochul in surveys of voters. Her record high with Siena from February still only hit 49% of voters viewing her favorably, and a recent Emerson poll put her job approval at 46% negative and only 40% positive.

“A lot of it has to do with the dissatisfaction with Hochul. … She doesn’t generate a lot of excitement within her own party,” Dawidziak said. But he added Blakeman still hasn’t excited the moderates and independents that Republicans need to win statewide. “He can’t wait too much longer to tack more to the middle and address more of the moderates’ concerns and issues,” he said. “He’s got every MAGA vote in the state, he doesn’t have to do anything more for the MAGA vote.” Which makes the president’s upstate visit perhaps puzzling so close to the election at a time when one might expect him to double down on winning over independents and moderate Democrats.

Asked about Trump’s comment that voters should pretend he’s on the ballot, Blakeman told City & State, “It’s an appeal to people who support him to rally around our campaign.”

“But if you heard me that night, I also said how I am appealing to independent voters and what I call commonsense Democrats for their vote,” Blakeman added.

And banking on Hochul’s unpopularity this year is a greater risk than it was four years ago. Although she may not be the strongest politician at the top of the ticket for Democrats, polls show highly competitive races in key battlegrounds like the Hudson Valley’s 17th Congressional District and even the deep-red 21st Congressional District in the North Country in which the Democratic candidates heavily outperform her. They indicate Hochul may benefit from downballot energy outside of New York City rather than congressional candidates riding her coattails.

“I don’t think she has to be (an inspiring top of the ticket) this year, that’s the funny thing,” said one Long Island Democratic insider granted anonymity to speak candidly. The reason: Hochul wouldn’t necessarily drive them to the polls, but anger toward Trump would. “I think Democrats are so pissed,” the insider said.

Republicans know Blakeman needs to appeal beyond the base. Siena polls have consistently had him narrowly leading with independents. Emerson had Blakeman with a 20-point lead among independents. Quinnipiac was the only recent survey showing Hochul ahead with independents, along with a 19-point lead over Blakeman overall. Yet self-described moderates and suburban voters were split in the latest Siena poll, and the most recent Marist survey has the suburbs equally split as well. Those are also the kinds of voters and areas where Blakeman needs to rack up strong numbers, and some see the decision not to actively focus on the president as prudent.

“He’s not Donald Trump, he’s running for governor of New York state,” Palumbo said. “Donald Trump is done in two years, whether he likes it or not. So I think that he should focus on himself and his record, because Bruce Blakeman has his own record.”

The fadeaway

In the past few weeks, Blakeman has started appealing to disaffected Democrats and independents. He has touted his endorsement by former staunch anti-Trump, Democratic celebrity Debra Messing as evidence of his independence and crossover support and began posting video endorsements from registered Democrats on his X account. And he unveiled a new AI ad featuring fictional suburban voters discussing their support of Blakeman in hushed tones.

After concluding his hour-long rally speech in Syracuse, Trump invited Blakeman back on  stage to address the crowd together. “We love America, and we love Donald J. Trump,” Blakeman yelled out to cheers with the president at his side.

But a few days later, Blakeman took the stage in the first and only gubernatorial debate. As Hochul hammered him on his loyalty to the president, pointing to those exact words from the rally, Blakeman changed his tune.

“At a rally, as you know, it’s a cheering section, and you say things to get the crowd worked up,” Blakeman said. When Hochul criticized Blakeman for previously calling Trump the greatest president of his lifetime, he walked the comment back. “In retrospect, I would say that Dwight D. Eisenhower was the greatest president,” he said. He added, “But Donald Trump has two more years, so let’s see where it goes.”