Who’s going to be the next senator from New York?

U.S. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, the top-ranking Democrat in Washington, D.C., and until recently a beloved politician in his home state for decades, has been a shoo-in for reelection for the past 20-plus years. But in 2028, things might be a little different.

New York’s senior senator was once among the most popular politicians in the state, particularly among Democrats. Just three years ago, 71% of Democrats had a favorable view of him and only 18% had an unfavorable view, according to a Siena poll from May 2023. But Schumer’s star has dimmed considerably since then, with a recent Siena poll finding that just 47% of Democrats have a favorable view of him and 40% have an unfavorable view.

The second Trump administration has radicalized the Democratic base, who are increasingly turning against Democratic leaders they see as old, out of touch and unwilling to aggressively confront President Donald Trump’s policies. Schumer is also being left behind with where the Democratic Party’s base is moving on Israel. Last year, he said his job “is to keep the left pro-Israel.” If that’s true, then it’s not working. According to Pew Research Center, 80% of Democrats now have an unfavorable view of Israel, compared to 53% who had a negative view of the country in 2022. Schumer’s own colleagues in the Senate are increasingly breaking with him on this issue too. Last month, 40 Senate Democrats voted for a bill to block the sale of $295 million worth of bulldozers to Israel; Schumer was one of only seven Senate Democrats to vote against it. The bill failed to pass 40-59.

The most talked-about contender to replace or challenge Schumer, since he has not said yet whether he will run for reelection in 2028, is Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. She is forty years his junior, an outspoken critic of the president and among the most pro-Palestine House members. She’s also a credible challenger, one of the only politicians capable of posing a serious threat to the sitting Senate Democratic leader.

AOC has been talked about as a potential future senator since she took office in 2019, after defeating then-Rep. Joe Crowley in an upset victory that signaled a resurgence of left-wing politics within the Democratic Party. Those whispers have only increased as Schumer’s approval numbers have declined.

She’s a master of small-dollar fundraising with a $14 million war chest, with sky-high name recognition and impressive favorability ratings. 

“If Congressmember Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez chooses to pursue it, she would have a significant advantage – both in her ability to fundraise nationally and in leveraging her strong base of support in New York City to drive votes statewide,” Yvette Buckner, president of the Buckner Group, wrote in an email to City & State.

An April 2025 Siena poll found that 64% of New York Democrats viewed her favorably and just 18% viewed her unfavorably. The only problem is that the U.S. Senate may be too small; many of her supporters instead want her to run for president in 2028.

If Schumer doesn’t run for reelection, and AOC declines to run for Senate, then the field would be wide open. Almost every House Democrat in New York not currently in leadership would at least consider running.

It’s no secret that Rep. Ritchie Torres has been setting himself up for a run. The first out gay Afro-Latino person elected to Congress, Torres is also seen as a rising star within the Democratic Party. But while AOC has embraced her role as standard-bearer of the left, Torres has moved more to the center. He has been particularly outspoken in support of Israel and cryptocurrency – two powerful lobbies that could provide the necessary funding for a competitive run – and Torres also has about $14 million in cash on hand to rival AOC. Torres has a statewide following and even flirted with challenging Gov. Kathy Hochul from the right, but he ultimately passed after Zohran Mamdani won the mayoral race.

Assuming that Rep. Adriano Espaillat fends off his DSA challenger this year, he could look to move up to the U.S. Senate. If Rep. Dan Goldman is still in Congress, he could take a shot – or Brad Lander could if he unseats Goldman. The same could be said of whoever wins the race to replace retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler – and even if Assembly Member Alex Bores doesn’t win that election, his national reputation as an AI regulator could give him some statewide appeal. Speaking of statewide appeal, Rep. Pat Ryan – an upstate Democrat with a military background who has straddled the ideological line between the moderates and forging an unlikely partnership with AOC – could make a strong Senate candidate.

More long-shot candidates include Lina Khan – the former Federal Trade Commission head who passed on a run for the 12th Congressional District and is close to the Mamdani administration – and the always ambitious state Sen. James Skoufis, who ran a quixotic campaign to lead the Democratic National Committee last year. And former elected officials seeking a comeback – like former Gov. Andrew Cuomo – could always throw their hats into the ring as well.