How our readers’ predictions match up with voter polls

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How our readers’ predictions match up with voter polls

Readers are predicting large margins of Democratic victories where voter polls indicate a tight race.
November 5, 2018

Who will win the big legislative races on Tuesday? Nobody knows, but our readers have been weighing in – and you can still vote through Election Day in our unscientific polls of the most competitive New York House and state Senate races.

Based on the results as of noon on Monday, here are how our readers’ expectations match up with City & State’s ratings and voter polls.

Either Democratic readers are very optimistic – or they are casting votes in disproportionate numbers in our online polls. Of the 10 congressional races City & State polled, readers are predicting Democrats will win five contests where polls show the Republican candidate leading.

In New York’s 19th Congressional District, a toss-up contest, 85 percent of our readers are predicting Democratic challenger Antonio Delgado will beat Republican Rep. John Faso. Similarly, 88 percent of readers say Democrat Anthony Brindisi will beat Republican Rep. Claudia Tenney despite the fact that both City & State and The New York Times rate these races as toss-ups.

On the state Senate, of the 14 races readers were asked about, the responses were much more consistent with City & State’s own rankings.


HOUSE RACES:

Congressional District 1

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Lee Zeldin and Perry Gershon
Alt Text: 
Lee Zeldin and Perry Gershon
Title Text: 
Lee Zeldin and Perry Gershon
Description: 
Lee Zeldin and Perry Gershon
Image Credit: 
Photo courtesy U.S. House of Representatives; Perry Gershon for Congress

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Perry Gershon 66%
▉ Lee Zeldin (incumbent) 34%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

Latest poll from Siena College/New York Times:
▉ Zeldin 49%
▉ Gershon 41%

Congressional District 2

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Pete King and Liuba Grechen Shirley
Alt Text: 
Pete King and Liuba Grechen Shirley
Title Text: 
Pete King and Liuba Grechen Shirley
Description: 
Pete King and Liuba Grechen Shirley
Image Credit: 
Photo courtesy U.S. House of Representatives; Liuba Grechen Shirley for Congress

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Liuba Grechen Shirley 74%
▉ Pete King (incumbent) 26%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

No poll, but FiveThirtyEight predicts:
▉ King has a 5 in 7 chance of winning
▉ Grechen Shirley has a 2 in 7 chance of winning

Congressional District 11

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Dan Donovan and Max Rose
Alt Text: 
Dan Donovan and Max Rose
Title Text: 
Dan Donovan and Max Rose
Description: 
Dan Donovan and Max Rose
Image Credit: 
Photo courtesy U.S. House of Representatives; Max Rose for Congress

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Max Rose 65%
▉ Dan Donovan (incumbent) 35%

City & State rating: Leans Republican

Latest poll from Siena College/New York Times:
▉ Donovan 44%
▉ Rose 40%

Congressional District 18

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Sean Patrick Maloney and James O'Donnell
Alt Text: 
Sean Patrick Maloney and James O'Donnell
Title Text: 
Sean Patrick Maloney and James O'Donnell
Description: 
Sean Patrick Maloney and James O'Donnell
Image Credit: 
Photo courtesy U.S. House of Representatives; James O'Donnell for Congress

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Sean Patrick Maloney (incumbent) 90%
▉ James O’Donnell 10%

City & State rating: Likely Democrat

No latest poll, but FiveThirtyEight predicts:
Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney has a 59 in 60 chance of winning

Congressional District 19

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John Faso and Antonio Delgado
Alt Text: 
John Faso and Antonio Delgado
Title Text: 
John Faso and Antonio Delgado
Description: 
John Faso and Antonio Delgado
Image Credit: 
Photo courtesy U.S. House of Representatives; Antonio Delgado for Congress

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Antonio Delgado 85%
▉ John Faso (incumbent) 15% 

City & State rating: Toss-Up

Latest poll from Siena College/New York Times:
▉ Delgado 43%
▉ Faso 42%

Congressional District 21

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Elise Stefanik and Tedra Cobb
Alt Text: 
Elise Stefanik and Tedra Cobb
Title Text: 
Elise Stefanik and Tedra Cobb
Description: 
Elise Stefanik and Tedra Cobb
Image Credit: 
Photos courtesy U.S. House of Representatives; Tedra Cobb for Congress

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Elise Stefanik (incumbent) 54%
▉ Tedra Cobb 46%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

Latest poll from TargetPoint:
▉ Stefanik 50%
▉ Cobb 40%

Congressional District 22

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Claudia Tenney and Anthony Brindisi
Alt Text: 
Claudia Tenney and Anthony Brindisi
Title Text: 
Claudia Tenney and Anthony Brindisi
Description: 
Claudia Tenney and Anthony Brindisi
Image Credit: 
Photo courtesy U.S. House of Representatives; Anthony Brindisi for Congress

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Anthony Brindisi 88%
▉ Claudia Tenney (incumbent) 12%

City & State rating: Toss-up

Latest poll from Siena College/New York Times:
▉ Tenney 46%
▉ Brindisi 45%

Congressional District 23

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Tom Reed and Tracy Mitrano
Alt Text: 
Tom Reed and Tracy Mitrano
Title Text: 
Tom Reed and Tracy Mitrano
Description: 
Tom Reed and Tracy Mitrano
Image Credit: 
Photo courtesy U.S. House of Representatives; Tracy Mitrano for Congress

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Tom Reed (incumbent) 55%
▉ Tracy Mitrano 45%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

Latest poll from Change Research:
▉ Reed 49%
▉ Mitrano 47%

Congressional District 24

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John Katko and Dana Balter
Alt Text: 
John Katko and Dana Balter
Title Text: 
John Katko and Dana Balter
Description: 
John Katko and Dana Balter
Image Credit: 
Photo courtesy U.S. House of Representatives; Dana Balter for Congress

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Dana Balter 52%
▉ John Katko (incumbent) 48%

City & State rating: Leans Republican

Latest poll from Siena College:
▉ Katko 53%
▉ Balter 39%

Congressional District 27

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Chris Collins and Nate McMurray
Alt Text: 
Chris Collins and Nate McMurray
Title Text: 
Chris Collins and Nate McMurray
Description: 
Chris Collins and Nate McMurray
Image Credit: 
Photo courtesy U.S. House of Representatives; Nate McMurray for Congress

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Nate McMurray 81%
▉ Chris Collins (incumbent) 19%

City & State rating: Leans Republican

Latest poll from News 10 NBC/Dixie Strategies Poll:
▉ Collins 45%
▉ McMurray 38%


STATE SENATE RACES:

State Senate District 3

DISTRICT3.jpg

Image Credit: 
Dean Murray for Senate; Monica Martinez for Senate

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Dean Murray 54%
▉ Monica Martinez 46%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

State Senate District 4

DISTRICT4.jpg

Caption: 
Phil Boyle for state Senate; Louis D’Amaro for state Senate

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Phil Boyle (incumbent) 66%
▉ Louis D’Amaro 34%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

State Senate District 5

DISTRICT5.jpg

Image Credit: 
Carl Marcellino for state Senate; James Gaughran for State Senate

Readers’ prediction:
▉ James Gaughran 68%
▉ Carl Marcellino (incumbent) 33%

City & State rating: Toss-up

State Senate District 6

DISTRICT6.jpg

Image Credit: 
Kemp Hannon for state Senate; Kevin Thomas for state Senate

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Kemp Hannon (incumbent) 69%
▉ Kevin Thomas 31%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

State Senate District 7

DISTRICT7.jpg

Image Credit: 
Elaine Phillips for state Senate; Matt Roth

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Anna Kaplan 57% 
▉ Elaine Phillips (incumbent) 43%

City & State rating: Toss-up

State Senate District 8

DISTRICT8.jpg

Image Credit: 
John Brooks for state Senate; Jeff Pravato for State Senate

Readers’ prediction:
▉ John Brooks (incumbent) 55%
▉ Jeff Pravato 45%

City & State rating: Toss-up

State Senate District 9

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Todd Kaminsky and Francis Becker Jr.
Alt Text: 
Todd Kaminsky and Francis Becker Jr.
Title Text: 
Todd Kaminsky and Francis Becker Jr.
Description: 
Todd Kaminsky and Francis Becker Jr.

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Todd Kaminsky (incumbent) 79%
▉ Francis Becker Jr. 21%

City & State rating: Likely Democrat

State Senate District 22

DISTRICT22.jpg

Image Credit: 
Martin Golden for State Senate; Andrew Gounardes for State Senate

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Andrew Gounardes 53%
▉ Martin Golden (incumbent) 47%

City & State rating: Lean Republican

State Senate District 39

DISTRICT39.jpg

Image Credit: 
Citizens for Tom Basile; Skoufis for NY

Readers’ prediction:
▉ James Skoufis 70%
▉ Tom Basile 31%

City & State rating: Toss-up

State Senate District 40

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Terrence Murphy (incumbent) 54%
▉ Peter Harckham 46%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

State Senate District 41

DISTRICT41.jpg

Image Credit: 
Sue Serino for state Senate; Karen Smythe for state Senate

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Sue Serino (incumbent) 54%
▉ Karen Smythe 46%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

State Senate District 42

DISTRICT42.jpg

Image Credit: 
Ann Rabbitt for Senate; Jen Metzger for Senate

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Jen Metzger 56%
▉ Ann Rabbitt 45%

City & State rating: Lean Republican

State Senate District 43

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Daphne Jordan and Aaron Gladd
Alt Text: 
Daphne Jordan and Aaron Gladd
Title Text: 
Daphne Jordan and Aaron Gladd
Description: 
Daphne Jordan and Aaron Gladd

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Daphne Jordan 51%
▉ Aaron Gladd 49%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

State Senate District 50

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Robert Antonacci vs. John Mannion
Alt Text: 
Robert Antonacci vs. John Mannion
Title Text: 
Robert Antonacci vs. John Mannion
Description: 
Robert Antonacci vs. John Mannion

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Robert Antonacci 56%
▉ John Mannion 44%

City & State rating: Lean Republican

Jordan Laird
is an editorial intern at City & State.
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