Opinion: Gazing into the primary day crystal ball

Well, the day we’ve all been waiting for is finally here: the Democratic primary, which will likely nominate our next mayor and determine New York City’s course for the next four years. Who will win? As Yogi Berra once said, “it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” But permit me to try anyway.

Until the last few weeks, all the political pundits and insiders were predicting a runaway victory for Andrew Cuomo. Even before he formally jumped into the race in March, poll after poll showed the former governor leading by margins of 10 to 20 points.

Like a phoenix rising from the ashes, Cuomo – the political scion who was run out of Albany in disgrace a mere four years ago – was going to get his second chance and find redemption at City Hall.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the coronation: a young candidate pushing for change, with an unusual first name and a very leftist ideology, came out of nowhere to potentially ruin the plans of New York’s establishment elite and unnerve the real estate and  business communities.

If this sounds a bit like the meteoric national rise of a certain U.S. senator from Illinois with the middle name Hussein in 2008, then you might begin to realize that history doesn’t necessarily repeat itself, but sometimes it rhymes.

The ascent of Zohran Mamdani sure seems like a local version of Barack Obama’s surprising journey to the Oval Office: the charismatic, previously unknown backbencher who slew the establishment dragons Hillary Clinton and John McCain almost 17 years ago.

Few took Mamdani seriously as a candidate when City & State first broke the news 11 months ago that he was planning to run for mayor, and my January column suggesting that the 33-year-old democratic socialist had a real chance had some readers wondering if I’d lost my mind.

Tonight, between 9:30 and 10:30 p.m., we should know the vote tallies from the first round of voting. It’s still very possible that Andrew Cuomo emerges this evening with a commanding lead of first-place votes and cruises to victory after the July 1 tallying of the “instant runoffs” of ranked choice voting.

The Black community has rallied around the former governor, with recent polling showing he’s winning 50% of their votes. Mamdani is trailing far behind in that solidly moderate and older voting block.

Among Latinos, however, it seems that AOC’s recent endorsement of Mamdani may have vaulted him into the top position with this key demographic. A poll last week from Marist showed Mamdani beating Cuomo among Latino voters by five points.

The Jewish community, which generally comprises about 16% of the Democratic electorate, seems to be breaking mostly for Andrew Cuomo because of his steadfast support for Israel — but there are a number of younger Jews who prioritize left-wing policies over the Holy Land, and they are supporting Mamdani.

This two-person horse race recently was joined by a surging candidate who is very likely to end up solidly in third place: New York City Comptroller Brad Lander. Between his highly publicized ICE arrest (shades of Bill de Blasio’s famous arrest outside a Brooklyn hospital during his own 2013 mayoral campaign), love from the New York Times and a cross-endorsement with Mamdani, Lander is likely to climb out of the single digits in the polls and end up with at least 15% of first-place votes.

But Lander’s rise also benefits Mamdani. Because of their cross-endorsement, when Lander is eliminated in a late round, it’s likely that most of his voters will end up in Mamdani’s final tally.

In fact, the last poll of the campaign by Emerson College released yesterday has Cuomo leading Mamdani, 36% to 34%, at the end of the first round of ranked choice voting, but ultimately losing to Mamdani, 52% to 48%. The key for Mamdani is the second-to-last round of ranked choice voting, where Lander is eliminated and 13 points of his overall 21% tally goes to Mamdani, pushing him over the finish line.

There’s also a climate change factor that might help Mamdani and hurt Cuomo. Today’s near-100 degree temperature “heat dome” may depress primary day turnout among older voters, who predominantly favor Cuomo.

About 385,000 ballots were cast early. Democratic primaries rarely top 1 million votes, which means that – unless turnout massively increases this year – almost half the voters have already made their choice. Based on preliminary analysis, it looks like Mamdani voters have turned out early and enthusiastically.

CUNY Professor John Mollenkopf crunched the numbers and found that 30% of early voters (about 117,000 people) were under 35 years old. That level of youth turnout is basically unheard of in an off-year primary election, which are usually dominated by older voters. CUNY also found that almost 25% of early voters (about 100,000 people) didn’t vote in the last two mayoral primaries – another sign of young and disengaged voters turning out who could be pivotal in the final results.

There’s going to be a lot of sweaty palms (not just from the heat wave) at Cuomo and Mamdani watch parties. It’s very unlikely that we’ll know who won the primary tonight. Unless one candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, we’ll have to wait for the Board of Elections to release the ranked choice results next week. But we can still divine some clues based on tonight’s preliminary results.

If Mamdani leads Cuomo at the end of the first round, then he’s virtually guaranteed to win the nomination. More likely, Cuomo will be ahead of Mamdani – but by how much?

Lefty political pundit Michael Lange points out that if Mamdani ends tonight within five points of Cuomo, then it’s good news for Mamdani, who can be expected to make up that difference once the ranked choice results come in. If Cuomo eclipses 40% of the vote or leads Mamdani by at least ten points, then the former governor should be in very good shape to win the RCV results next week.

But whatever happens, this is just the first game of a doubleheader. If Cuomo and Mamdani both do well tonight and it’s close, we could see a rematch between them in November, and this time it will also include incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, GOP nominee Curtis Sliwa and independent Jim Walden.

Because that five-way race will not be determined by RCV – but merely by plurality – then it’s conceivable that the winner tonight still might lose in November, when just 35% of the general election vote might be enough to win the race to Gracie Mansion.

Buckle your seatbelts, get out the popcorn and remember that it’s a long way to November 4.

Tonight’s important, but we may still be debating who our next mayor will be for another four-and-a-half months.