Lawler holds final town halls as he considers gubernatorial run

Republican Rep. Mike Lawler has finally wrapped up his town halls for the year, and the scenes at his more recent ones have been notably less raucous than in weeks past – a good sign as he eyes a potential run for governor.

Democrats’ plan to stoke anger over his involvement in President Donald Trump’s pilloried “One Big Beautiful Bill” worked like gangbusters, with protests outside venues and mass heckles during Lawler’s earlier town halls in more purple areas of the district. But as he nears a decision on a potential gubernatorial run, he appears to have left his public bloodletting sessions with a political pulse and somewhere to hang his hat in the more conservative sections of the 17th Congressional District. 

Democrats have a bullseye over his district, Lawler remains one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents in New York, if not the country – despite a strong showing over former Rep. Mondaire Jones last November. The federal budget bill that he voted for in the House and which is now advancing through the U.S. Senate has been described as favorable to the wealthy. Lawler has tried to frame the legislation as an attempt to reduce waste in social services by making sure only the right people receive them, but the bill has the state government bracing for apocalyptic cuts to Medicaid funding.

Democrats and aligned organizations like Indivisible, the New York Working Families Party and Planned Parenthood have protested his town halls, and GOP leadership warned Lawler that it wasn’t wise to hold them in the first place. 

During the town halls, constituents have often asked him pointed questions focused on the idea that he’s selling out his district to Trump and oligarchs, or have asked him to respond to accusations that he has contradicted his own more moderate beliefs in service to his party. In Rockland and Westchester counties, those questions were mixed in with raucous jeers that sometimes led town hall attendees being kicked out of the venue. But then, those town halls were supposed to go awful for Lawler. 

Those regions of the district contain the bulk of registered Democrats in the district and make up some of the bluest (and richest) parts of New York. Given the proximity and ease of access to New York City-based activists and journalists, it behooved Democrats to ratchet up pressure. 

Putnam and Dutchess Counties are a different story, though. Those Mid-Hudson Valley counties are much less favorable for Democrats.The Dutchess County government is run by Republicans, and state Sen. Rob Rolison and Assembly Member Anil Beephan add to the GOP’s ranks in the statehouse. It’s a similar story in Putnam County, led by Republican County Executive Kevin Byrne. Lawler generally does well in these northern corners of his district, given the more conservative electorate. So it was little surprise that Lawler felt comfortable getting snippy with the crowds there when they made accusations or interjected with statements he didn’t agree with. 

“How do I lie? The fact is, I engage in every community. I show up in every community. I answer your questions,” Lawler said Saturday at a Hopewell Junction town hall, “and the fact is, when Chuck Schumer goes on television, says, we are sending protesters up to Republican congressional districts in New York, that's what I'm talking about.”

Further south in his district, Lawler’s attempt to play defense looked more like pouting and waiting for the crowd’s comments to settle into a dull roar. The fact that mixed crowds are giving him the latitude to retort, and on occasion be snarky, means that there could be hope for him yet. If he couldn’t go to a place like Mahopac and get a round of applause, he might as well retire and try working his magic in the consultant world. But Lawler clearly has a strong base of support among Republicans in the district who are less upset with him than with the fact that he was constantly interrupted. 

“I thought it was absolutely disgusting how adults acted like absolute immature children,” Carmel Town Council Member Robert Kearns told City & State following a Mahopac Town Hall on June 8. If his reception across the district continues to recede back to the normal level of hostility expected in a New York swing district (a mere plurality of contempt when he is seen in public), Lawler may be able to think bigger than his seat going forward. 

There’s still the matter of Albany, the place he blames most of New York’s issues on while simultaneously angling for his own path to the Executive Mansion. Lawler is part of a trio of expected Republican challengers to Gov. Kathy Hochul who may run in the GOP gubernatorial primary next year. Rep. Elise Stefanik is also part of that group, and though she isn’t skirting blame for what people are calling a historically destructive federal budget, it hasn’t and won’t hit her as hard at home the way it has for Lawler.

Stefanik is expected to formally announce campaigns for governor soon, and Lawler may do so as well. Each has been pumping up their profile statewide in the lead-up to a race that should produce a few political casualties. Stefanik has even secured fundraising pledges in anticipation of her run. As for Lawler? At the close of his last town hall in Hopewell Junction, he told City & State that there wasn’t anything to announce. 

“I haven’t made a decision yet,” he said.