Poll shows young voters would back Avilés over Goldman in NY-10

New York’s 10th Congressional District has been the subject of much speculation as multiple Democrats weigh a primary challenge to incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman. A recent poll found that New York City Council Member Alexa Avilés, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, is well-positioned to grow out a campaign if she chose to run.

The group Stand Up Action, Inc, which focuses on fighting extremism and building a more representative government, commissioned the poll. The organization sought to gain insight specifically into the potential appeal of Avilés, according to a memo shared exclusively with City & State. Although no Democrat has yet announced a run against Goldman, City & State first reported last month that Avilés was contemplating a run and would likely receive the backing of the NYC-DSA if she did.

Avilés is not the only candidate considering running for the congressional seat, though. City & State broke the news last month that outgoing New York City Comptroller Brad Lander has told close allies he plans to run against Goldman, and Lander confirmed to Crain’s New York Business on Thursday that he is seriously considering a run. A September poll by Demand Progress found that Lander would beat Goldman by 19 points, 52% to 33%, in a hypothetical one-on-one matchup.

The poll from Stand Up Action found that Avilés would fare much worse against Goldman – with the incumbent congressional representative beating her 45%-16% among definite supporters and those who lean one way or the other – but it also found that Avilés is largely unknown in the district, is well-liked by those who do know and has room to grow her support.

The phone poll of 500 likely Democratic primary voters in the district took place between Nov. 3-6. According to polling top lines shared with City & State, 77% of respondents had no opinion of Avilés. But for those who do know her, 20% had a favorable view while only 3% had an unfavorable one. 

According to the memo, Avilés’ name recognition was unsurprisingly much higher in the part of the district that overlaps with her own City Council district. There, she has a 43%-3% favorability rating. Aviles also was more well-known among younger voters aged 18-34, who favored her 40%-2%. She also had better ratings among Black and Latino respondents. The poll’s full crosstabs were not shared with City & State.

“While the prevailing opinion is that Brad Lander may present a strong challenge to Goldman, the data show that Aviles has strength with a key mobilization cohort – young voters – and has substantial room for growth across all demographic subgroups,” the memo reads.

Of course, the polling top lines also showed that likely primary voters still seem to like Goldman – and he has far more name recognition. Nearly half of respondents had a positive view of Goldman, with just 17% saying they did not view him well. In terms of his job performance, 15% said he was doing an excellent job in Congress and 29% described him as good, while 24% of respondents said he has only done a fair job and just 9% gave his time in Congress a poor rating. 

The polling memo says that Aviles “shows promise” among young voters, beating Goldman among those aged 18-34. “We point to this age cohort given their enthusiasm in this year’s municipal primary and general elections and for the fact that this enthusiasm in many cases translates into boots on the ground,” the memo reads.

Ultimately, Stand Up Action concluded that Avilés has significant room for growth if she launches a primary challenge against Goldman. “We stress that significant attention should be paid to an Aviles candidacy as she shows promise of becoming a serious contender,” it reads. But the survey still has its limitations, as it only stacks her against Goldman in a one-on-one matchup and doesn’t consider how she would fare in a three-way contest against both Goldman and Lander.