Rep. Elise Stefanik paints dire picture of NY in gubernatorial campaign launch

It’s official – Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik is running for governor. 

After months of broadcasting her intentions, Stefanik released a two-and-a-half minute campaign launch video on Friday, just days after New York City elected democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani as its next mayor. Unsurprisingly, he had a supporting role in the video as Stefanik sought to link him to Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul. “Kathy Hochul … cozied up to a defund the police, tax-hiking, antisemitic communist,” the video’s voiceover said.

Aptly named “From the Ashes,” Stefanik’s launch video painted New York as a chaotic hellscape with a fire fanned by Hochul burning the state down. The inaugural ad didn’t even mention Stefanik by name until roughly halfway through, favoring attacks on Hochul over introducing the candidate. “The Empire State has fallen,” the video begins over a soundtrack of tense music. It quickly shifts to soundbites from broadcast news about “a wave of migrant crime” and “foreign gang members terrorizing innocent New Yorkers,” and blaming Hochul for the state’s affordability crisis. 

Enter Stefanik, the “courageous leader ready for the fight” to help New York rise from the “ashes of Kathy Hochul’s failed policies.” The video highlighted Stefanik’s support of President Donald Trump’s signature budget bill, which included middle-class tax cuts (among many other cuts that Democrats have denounced) and her ability to “stand up to the woke mob” during the congressional hearings on antisemitism on college campuses. “Elise Stefanik will clean up Kathy Hochul’s catastrophe and restore New York's greatness,” the video concludes. 

Featuring inspiring stock footage to play underneath a commanding voiceover and leaning heavily on her opponents’ negatives, Stefanik’s launch feels more akin to a mid-campaign attack ad. It sets an aggressive tone for the race she promises to run, aligning with the rhetoric she has already started to employ on social media and news appearances. 

Stefanik is the first Republican to announce her challenge to Hochul, and early polling among potential GOP competitors shows her leading the pack. Rep. Mike Lawler, who has made no secret of his desire to run for governor at some point, decided to rule out the prospect in favor of running for reelection in his swing district at Trump’s urging. But he still contended that he was “best positioned” to beat Hochul – a tacit dig at Stefanik’s ability to win as she emerged as the favorite for an uncontested GOP nomination. 

But the other person floated as a possible candidate still hasn’t ruled out a run. Fresh off a strong reelection victory, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman told the New York Post that he is meeting with Republican leaders and will make a decision in the coming weeks. Unlike Stefanik, who must give up her seat and leadership position in Congress, Blakeman can run without risking his current position. Although New York Republican leaders prefer to avoid a contentious primary fight by consolidating around a single candidate, that has never stopped primaries from happening before. 

Whether Trump decides to weigh in could be the deciding factor. Both Stefanik and Blakeman are close Trump allies whom he could feasibly endorse. A decision from him to back one over the other would all but assure a cleared field for that person. But should Trump opt to stay out of the race early on, all bets are off. 

Hochul isn’t taking the long-expected announcement from Stefanik sitting down, though. Her campaign released a video of its own attacking Stefanik and launched the microsite SelloutStefanik.com. “Sellout Stefanik is Donald Trump’s number one cheerleader in Congress and his right-hand woman in his war on New York: gutting health care, jacking up costs with expensive tariffs, and cutting funding for our police, schools, and hospitals,” said Hochul campaign spokesperson Sarafina Chitika. “Apparently, screwing over New Yorkers in Congress wasn’t enough – now she’s trying to bring Trump’s chaos and skyrocketing costs to our state.”

Buckle up folks, this is going to be a bumpy ride.