A Long Islander enters the gubernatorial fray

Just over three years after a Long Island Republican gave New York its closest gubernatorial race in decades, another one announced his own bid against incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul. Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman officially launched his campaign on Tuesday, setting off what promises to be a contentious primary for the GOP nomination. 

Blakeman enters the primary contest as the underdog. Stefanik has had weeks on the campaign trail already, and she spent months before that actively laying the groundwork for her campaign, at a time when Blakeman needed to focus on his own reelection. Existing public polling shows Stefanik crushing Blakeman in a hypothetical matchup, with  the county executive receiving less support in those polls than even Rep. Mike Lawler, who has since decided not to run. Since her announcement in November, Stefanik has locked up support from Republican leaders around the state, including from the state GOP Committee.

“I am confident that coming out of our convention, Elise Stefanik will be our candidate and there will be no primary,” said party Chair Ed Cox. He praised Blakeman’s tenure as county executive and recognized that he is well-liked in the party, but asserted that Stefanik is best positioned to take on Hochul. Cox also pointed out that Stefanik has already secured 75% of the weighted county vote to win the nomination outright. 

But while Stefanik’s base lies in the sprawling North Country, Blakeman calls the politically powerful and vote-rich Long Island home. It’s no coincidence that former Rep. Lee Zeldin, who came within six points of beating Hochul in 2022, also represented parts of Long Island. Performance in the downstate suburbs has always played an important role in statewide races, both in primary and general elections.

Nassau County alone is more populous than several small states, which means Blakeman has for four years served a larger population than some governors. He unseated a Democrat in the purple county in a tight race in 2021 and then sailed to victory in his reelection this year. And Nassau County has a notoriously active and powerful Republican party, easily one of the most powerful GOP machines in the state.

That machine has already signaled that it’s behind one of its own. “Bruce is the best candidate for the job and the only Republican with the executive experience and proven track record to stop Hochul’s soft-on-crime policies, reckless spending, runaway taxes and her assault on the suburbs,” said Nassau GOP Chair Joe Cairo in a statement. Blakeman is launching his campaign with the backing of all three town supervisors in Nassau. “New Yorkers are lucky to have him enter the race for governor,” said Oyster Bay Town Supervisor Joseph Saladino.

Over the past several years, Republicans have performed well in Nassau County even as GOP candidates fell short in other parts of the state. A voice-over in Blakeman’s launch video said that in November, “the Republican Party shined bright on election night on Long Island.” Blakeman’s decisive victory certainly came in sharp contrast to New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani’s win.

Republican consultant William F. B. O’Reilly predicted that the Republican primary will turn into a close election. “Stefanik owns upstate and Blakeman owns the island,” he said in an email. “It's all the areas in between – New York City and the Hudson Valley – where the primary will be won. It's all about raising money and name ID now.”

Statements from both Hochul and Stefanik campaigns pointed out that Blakeman has run for many elected positions, including statewide ones, with little success. Stefanik spokesperson Bernadette Breslin said he lost several races “in smashing fashion,” while Hochul spokesperson Sarafina Chitika said he has come up short “just about every race he’s touched.” But Blakeman has spent the last four years raising his profile by taking an immediate stand against masking requirements, entering an expansive agreement to work with federal immigration officials and implementing a law that prevents transgender female athletes from competing on women’s teams in county facilities. How those positions will ultimately play out in a statewide general election is uncertain, but each is red meat in a Republican primary. 

Blakeman also dismissed the state GOP support for Stefanik, saying the party has “lost races, they're running the wrong people” while speaking on Fox 5 New York. Republicans haven’t won a statewide race in New York since former Gov. George Pataki’s last election in 2002, while Republicans regularly won countywide in Nassau. Then again, the county party had a pretty high-profile fail in last year’s special election to replace former Rep. George Santos, when Rep. Tom Suozzi trounced the candidate they picked in a crucial and nationally-watched race.

Stefanik is already attacking Blakeman for his past support for Democrats and his more moderate stances on gun control, but Larry Levy, the executive dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University, said that’s ultimately to Blakeman’s benefit. “The bottom line is that Blakeman is probably the shorter of the long shots that any Republican would be in a statewide race,” Levy said in a text, pointing also to his support among independents. Of course, independents don’t vote in Republican primaries.