New York political predictions for 2026

Another year looms, bringing with it a flurry of competitive elections, power struggles, rising stars, battles for funding and big policy decisions.

A little after midnight on Jan. 1, 2026, New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani will take office and almost immediately face a series of tests centered on his ability to implement the ambitious policies he promises to champion. Key to that will be his relationships with state leaders and the New York City Council where presumptive Speaker Julie Menin will soon assume command. Gov. Kathy Hochul is gearing up for another reelection battle, first in the primary against her own lieutenant governor, Antonio Delgado, and then likely in the general election against Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman. Don’t forget threats from the Trump administration, which has already cut millions of dollars in federal funding and deployed a bevy of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents to crack down on immigrant New Yorkers.

And honestly, if you thought the New York City mayoral race was a soap opera, just wait for the upcoming congressional elections. There’s a lot of them.

City & State reached out to seven well-informed consultants and political experts to get some early insights into what they expect to happen in 2026. They include New York Immigration Coalition Action President and CEO Murad Awawdeh, former New York City Council Minority Leader Joe Borelli, Partnership for New York City President and CEO Kathryn Wylde, political analyst Eli Valentin and political strategists Lupe Todd-Medina, Shontell Plummer and Michael Lange. Their responses have been edited for length and clarity.

Who will succeed Rep. Jerry Nadler and Rep. Nydia Velázquez next year?

Awawdeh: For NY-12, enter contestant #2281 in the congressional talent show, otherwise known as the race to replace Nadler after his 33 years of service. This race is shaping up to be “Succession” without the private jets, high drama and shifting alliances. It is a toss-up and anyone’s to win if they run an aggressive field campaign and on a platform that delivers for the district. As for NY-7, with Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso throwing his hat in the ring, additional potential contenders include Assembly Member Claire Valdez and New York City Council Member Julie Won and Tiffany Cabán. The district is prime for an ultraprogressive to run and win unless there are too many candidates who split the vote making way for a spoiler.

Lange: For NY-7, I would not bet against the DSA-endorsed candidate – and I’m not just saying that because I’m a member. It’s not called the Commie Corridor for nothing. On a more personal note, I am glad to see that Claire Valdez is considering running. Like Zohran Mamdani, I have had the good fortune of watching her up close, and I’m very impressed by her intangibles: work ethic, public speaking prowess, ties to labor and understanding of the current political moment. These are all ingredients for success in 2026, especially in NY-7. As for NY-12, that’s the (multi)million-dollar question. I still think Micah Lasher has the most institutional advantages – such as a likely endorsement from Jerry Nadler and consolidation of the Upper West Side – but Alex Bores should make this interesting. It’s all a game of earned media, name recognition and relationships. Mailboxes and TVs will be inundated, while door-knocking will be rendered obsolete in many parts of the district. It’s an old and wealthy district with a liberal technocratic bend. One news cycle (good or bad) could swing the whole election. How much will Israel-Palestine matter? Who can command that level of attention? I have far more questions than answers.

Todd-Medina: With so many people in the race, Lasher takes Nadler’s seat with less than a quarter of the vote. Reynoso wins respectfully and continues the work of La Luchadora.

Valentin: Micah Lasher will succeed Nadler. Lasher is one of the most talented politicians in New York – smart, politically astute and a prodigious fundraiser with a solid base in this district.

What’s the next big budget fight in Albany? 

Awawdeh: The next big budget battle will be defined by one unavoidable reality: New York must raise revenue to fill the holes left by sweeping federal cuts, especially in health care. Layer on the escalating affordability crisis, and Albany will face a choice: invest in working families or paper over the cracks.

Plummer: Raise the Age, Medicaid spending and how to pay for the various initiatives the legislature is going to want.

Todd-Medina: Affordability becomes the catch-all bucket for every fight: Child care, housing and transit are just a few.

Wylde: Source of revenues for health care and child care.

Does Gov. Kathy Hochul get reelected? Who will she select as her running mate?

Awawdeh: If Hochul continues to fight and defend all New Yorkers, including immigrants, and continues to battle the affordability and housing crises we have seen across the state, she wins the general election. As far as her running mate goes, with no statewide Latino elected officials, I would place a 50/50 bet on either Brooklyn District Attorney Eric Gonzalez or state Dormitory Authority President and CEO Robert Rodriguez, who have a great working relationship with the governor and can help deliver on her campaign.

Borelli: Given Hochul’s history as the Eddie Mush of lieutenant governor pony picking, I would urge her to take her chances with a safe bet. Perhaps a government functionary, a university president or pick a random winner from a church bingo hall who has never considered running for office.

Plummer: Yes and she’ll tap Eric Gonzalez or Walter Mosley as her running mate.

Valentin: Hochul will win reelection and will choose Robert Rodriguez as her running mate. Rodriguez will add the Latino she has always sought (Delgado is not Latino), while bringing regional balance to her ticket.

What will Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani’s relationship look like with the Trump administration? Will the peace last and what impacts will there be on the city?

Awawdeh: I genuinely believe Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani when he says he is willing to work with anyone to deliver for all New Yorkers and that is no different than the relationship I expect he will have with the White House. The two men from Queens have made it clear they both want New York City to thrive – albeit to varying degrees – so they’ll work together on that but absolutely body slam each other (rhetorically) every other day. Think divorced parents energy: cooperative when finances are involved and hostile whenever values come up.

Borelli: ​​The Trump/Mamdani bromance will end by March, but not over ICE or anything predictable. It will be over something like a bike lane in front of Trump Tower.

Todd-Medina: I don’t trust that Trump will remain cordial. He has never shown himself to be loyal to anyone but himself.

Wylde: It depends on whether Trump ramps up ICE detention and deportation, which would lead to mass protests and make a constructive relationship with Mamdani impossible.

What will be the first big fight between Mamdani and Hochul? 

Awawdeh: Tax the rich.

Borelli: Mamdani and Hochul will not have a major fight in 2026, as the new mayor will have to digest the fact that the public will start viewing both him and her as part of the same powers that be. He won’t be the new outsider a few months in.

Plummer: There will be some type of unfortunate event that happens in the city – and the two executives will differ on the approach and response.

Valentin: With his desire to fulfill promises made on the campaign trail and to lead the affordability fight, Mamdani will push for more free public bus transportation routes. This will cause the first clash between the two executives.

Wylde: Corporate taxes!

Who in New York are you watching as a rising star this year? Why?

Borelli: Brian Cunningham, Virginia Maloney, Kayla Santosuosso, Frank Morano, Matt Slater, Jordan Wright, Monica Martinez and Jessica Scarcella-Spanton are all Pokemon cards I’d hold onto. All are relatively new-ish in their careers and are about to have breakout years.

Lange: Diana Moreno, the DSA-endorsed candidate running to succeed Mamdani in Assembly District 36. 

Plummer: Catalina Cruz. She has been slowly passing influential bills and building relationships both inside and outside the Legislature.

Wylde: Carlina Rivera, because she is going to bring unprecedented political savvy to the affordable housing industry.

Which New York incumbent is most at risk in 2026? Why?

Awawdeh: Assembly Member Jaime Williams appears to be one of the most vulnerable incumbents heading into 2026. Her recent controversies range from publicly aligning with Curtis Sliwa during the general mayoral election, protesting migrant shelters and coming out against the City of Yes housing plan. She is now poised to face a serious primary challenge from Jibreel Jalloh, a community organizer with deep roots in Canarsie, running to deliver on a compelling affordability-focused platform.

Lange: There’s several. In the Assembly, I think Erik Dilan and Jenifer Rajkumar are in serious trouble, especially with a competitive NY-7 atop the ticket. At the congressional level, I’d say Dan Goldman. If the left unites behind Brad Lander, he’s in a world of trouble.

Plummer: New York City Council Member Chi Ossé has set his sights on Stefani Zinerman, the Assembly member who represents his district. In the Senate, Jessica Ramos seems in danger due to the left’s reaction to her endorsing former Gov. Andrew Cuomo. 

Valentin: My eyes will be glued to local races, some of which will be contested by a motivated DSA base. The Stefani Zinerman Assembly race in Brooklyn will be another major fight.

Wylde: Rep. Dan Goldman is most at risk because he stood strong for Israel, but he deserves reelection because he is a statesman, not a politician.

Who are you watching for a political comeback this year? Why?

Borelli: Marc Molinaro and Anthony D’Esposito. Stay tuned.

Lange: All due respect to those who say Andrew Cuomo, but it’s Zoh-ver for the former governor. 2026 won’t be the year for comebacks, but the year for fresh faces and new blood.

Plummer: Jessica Ramos. I don’t know if it will be a political comeback or not, but it will be interesting to see how she navigates the relationships with her colleagues and the left.

Wylde: Keith Powers, because he is solid, well-respected, and a great candidate for Assembly 

What will former Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Mayor Eric Adams do next? 

Awawdeh: If former Gov. Andrew Cuomo wants to run for anything, a potential comeback can be running for Congress in New York’s 1st District, an area he knows well and has called home. His strong support there can potentially help him squeak out a win to break his losing streak. Eric Adams either moves to call Ankara home or does international government relations for an unsuccessful Bitcoin operation.

Borelli: Cuomo and Adams will team up with Mayor Bill de Blasio in a new reality show highlighting the mashup between democracy, demographics, debates and dating called Swing Voter Sexagenarians. Think “The Bachelor” meets a government-run “Shark Tank” with Jacques Jiha as the fun-loving host.

Lange: Grift.

Plummer: Consult and do pro-Israel work.

Valentin: Much to the disdain of many, the one thing they will not do is ride off into the sunset and retire from public life.

Wylde: Make money and reminisce about the good old days in politics.