An early look at the state legislative races on our radar this November

With 100 days until Election Day, all eyes are on crucial congressional races as control of the House hangs in the balance. But they’re hardly the only contests that will be on the ballot. Democrats are hoping to strengthen their numbers in the state Legislature this year, especially in the state Senate. They briefly held a veto-proof supermajority, but lost it in 2024. Now, they’re targeting a handful of Republican-held districts – including one open seat – in hopes of winning back that two-thirds majority in both chambers. With 41 members currently, Democrats only need to win back one more seat, so long as they also protect all their incumbents. 

Democrats in the Assembly came close to losing their super majority a few years ago, with departures and election losses bringing them down to as few as 100 members at one point. They sit more comfortably at 103 members now, but that’s still less than Democrats’ peak 107 in 2022. While they’ll have some pick-up opportunities, Assembly Democrats also will find themselves on the defensive in some cases. 

After progressive energy that propelled leftwing candidates to victory in June, here are some of the big races to watch in November.

STATE SENATE

District 7

On Long Island, Republican state Sen. Jack Martins decided against seeking reelection for his historically swingy seat, which consistently switched hands for more than a decade. Republicans tapped Assembly Member Jake Blumencranz to run for the seat, while former New York City Council Member Rory Lancman is running on the Democratic line. Both have put up impressive fundraising numbers, and neither faced primaries, so the contest promises to be incredibly competitive as Republicans attempt to hold on to the seat in a year conventional wisdom suggests will be a strong one for Democrats. Lancman has over $571,000 in the bank as of mid-July, while Blumencranz has about $208,000 on hand.

District 38

This isn’t the first time that Democrats are targeting Republican state Sen. Bill Weber in the Hudson Valley. Weber flipped the seat in 2022, winning over then-state Sen. Elijah Reichlin-Melnick. The pair have faced off multiple times to represent the district, first in 2020 when Reichlin-Melnick won the open position, and again in 2024 when Weber defended his seat. But Democrats have a new candidate this year in Joe Rand. And unlike last cycle, there is no spoiler candidate running on the Working Families Party line after a “ballot line hijacking” incident. Rand edges out Weber in finances as of mid-July with $348,000 on hand – though Weber isn’t far behind with $330,000.

District 39

Also in the Hudson Valley, Republican state Sen. Rob Rolison currently represents a district created in 2022 as part of redistricting. By most metrics, the seat should have been a potential Democratic pickup, but the moderate Rolison, the former mayor of Poughkeepsie, has managed to win it twice now. His 2024 election was fairly close, though, as he edged out Democrat Yvette Valdés-Smith by about 1.4 percentage points. This year, Democrats have Dutchess County Legislator Lisa Kaul running to unseat Rolison after she won her primary in June. She has $37,000 on hand as of mid-July following that primary, far more than the $8,800 Rolison has heading into the general election cycle.

District 43

In the Capital Region, Democrats are hoping to unseat Republican state Sen. Jake Ashby. Though the district is traditionally Republican and Ashby won his last reelection by a comfortable margin, Democrats are supporting state historian Devin Lander in their attempt to take advantage of a favorable midterm year to win the seat. Heading into the general election cycle, the two candidates have comparable warchests. Ashby had about $176,000 in the bank as of mid-July, while Lander had $202,000 on hand.

District 44 

Democrats are taking aim at Republican state Sen. Jim Tedisco this year, though it’s another contest where the odds are less favorable  than in other districts they’re trying to flip. Tedisco handily won his 2024 election to continue representing his Capitol Region district. But that’s not stopping Democrats, who are backing immigration attorney Sarah Rogerson to take him on. As first reported in City & State’s Heard Around Town, the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee even paid for an opposition website about Tedisco that highlighted campaign contributions he has received from utility companies. The incumbent heads into the general election on more solid financial footing with $120,000 on hand as of mid-July, while Rogerson has a little under $58,000.

ASSEMBLY

District 16

Republican Daniel Norber flipped his Long Island district for the first time in decades two years ago. But after just one term in the Legislature, he’s calling it quits and leaving the seat open and providing Democrats an opportunity to win it back. Their candidate is Kim Keiserman, who previously ran an unsuccessful state Senate campaign against Martins in 2024.Republicans are running David Hassid, a recent college grad working for the town of North Hempstead. Keiserman has about $94,000 on hand as of mid-July, far outpacing the less than $3,000 Hassid had in the bank.

District 21

Democratic Assembly Member Judy Griffin will be on the defensive again this year after a series of back-and-forth election results have so far prevented her from holding more than two consecutive terms in the chamber. First elected in 2018 when she unseated former Assembly Member Brian Curran, she lost the Long Island seat to Curran again in 2022 before flipping it a second time two years ago. Curran is not running again this year, with attorney Irene Villacci instead running on the Republican line this year. Griffin had nearly $99,000 on hand as of mid-July, more than the roughly $21,000 Villacci has heading in the general election cycle.

District 23

Democratic Assembly Member Stacey Pheffer-Amato’s last few reelections were tough battles with her eking out wins by narrow margins. And now she’s retiring, leaving the Queens seat Republicans have come close to winning twice now wide open. Republican Tom Sullivan is trying his hand for a third time after his near-misses at unseating Pheffer-Amato in 2022 and 2024. He’ll face off against Democrat Pesach Osina, who previously ran for New York City Council in 2021. But a complicating factor is fellow Democrat Mike Scala, who lost the June primary to Osina may still appear on the ballot on a third-party line. Sullivan had about $46,000 in his campaign account as of mid-July, Osina had roughly 25,000 and Scala had $920.

District 46

Brooklyn is in for a rematch between Republican Assembly Member Alec Brook-Krasny and Democrat Chris McCreight. The pair last faced off in 2024, when McCreight gave Brook-Krasny a run for his money and the incumbent won in a tight race. Brook-Krasny had over $171,000 on hand as of mid-July, while McCreight had about $123,000.

District 97

Democratic Assembly Member Aaron Wieder won back the Hudson Valley seat for his party in 2024 for the first time since now-Rep. Mike Lawler flipped it in 2020. Lawler was replaced in 2022 by fellow Republican former Assembly Member John McGowan, whom Wieder bested two years ago. Before Lawler, the district had been pretty safely Democratic, so in theory the odds are in Wieder’s favor to win a second term. He won handily in 2024, thanks in part to a Conservative Party candidate that siphoned votes from McGowan. This year, Wieder will face Republican construction union leader Rob Bonomolo. But once again, the Conservative Party line went to someone else, with some accusing primary winner Abraham Klein of being a Democratic plant to split the right-wing vote. Bonomolo has about $21,000 in his campaign account as of mid-July, not too much less than Wieder’s $36,000. Klein has no associated campaign committee, and filed a claim of exemption for filing campaign finance disclosures. Filing the exemption means that Klein attested to the fact he would not spend or raise – and has not spent or raised – more than $50 for the race.

District 107

In another rematch, Republican Scott Bendett is set to run against Democrat Chloe Pierce for a second cycle in a row in the Capital Region. Although Bendett won decisively in 2024, Pierce gave him a competitive fight. This time around, Democrats united early behind Pierce, allowing her to avoid a costly and involved primary. She had an impressive $169,000 in her warchest as of mid-July, putting her on stronger footing than Bendett, who had $99,000.

District 143

Two years ago, Republican Assembly Member Patrick Chludzinski bested Democratic former Assembly Member Monica Wallace in Western New York. The seat has alternated between the two parties in recent years, so Chludzinski’s reelection after his first term is not a given. He’ll face off against Democrat Ryan Taughrin in November. Chludzinski enters the general election cycle with $196,000 in cash on hand as of mid-July, while Taughrin trailed him with $73,000.