The way things are trending, election night is looking very good for the Democratic Party. The polls are moving in the party’s favor in a number of swing seats nationwide. The ratings experts have continued to shift races to the left. Democratic candidates are feeling good and optimism is running high among the party faithful. But we’ve seen this film before.
Remember Hillary Clinton’s party at the Javits Center in 2016? Remember J. Ann Selzer’s Iowa poll in 2024 that missed by 16 percentage points? The prognosticators have been wrong before. But regardless of whether the polls are right, it’ll be an exciting night in New York with the governor up for reelection, swing House seats up for grabs and a Democratic supermajority at stake in the state Senate. Follow along with City & State’s live blog on Election Day as we cover what’s happening at the polls, and our reporters will be fanned out across the state providing updates about the most consequential results on election night.
Nov. 1 – Hochul, AOC and Mamdani walk into a bar
On the final day of early voting before Election Day, Gov. Kathy Hochul opted for familiar territory: watching the Buffalo Bills game, and hitting diners in deep-blue neighborhoods. But there was a brand new twist – Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez joined her on the campaign trail for the first time this cycle. Meanwhile, Hochul’s Republican opponent, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, spent the day outside the five boroughs in a statewide blitz ending with a rally in the Capital Region. Read more here.
– Rebecca C. Lewis, Kate Lisa and Jeff Coltin
Oct. 26 – State legislative general election races to watch
Unlike during primary season in New York, when many hot state legislative contests are in New York City or elsewhere downstate, the most tightly contested races in November are taking place in many different areas of the state. And those races come with a variety of dynamics, be it varying demographics or stronger coattails from the top of the ticket. With Republicans unlikely to gain a majority in either chamber anytime soon, a lot of the intrigue in this year’s races is about where Democrats can make inroads in an expected “blue wave” election – and whether they can once again secure a supermajority in the state Senate. Here are the state legislative races we’ll be keeping an eye on. Read more here.
– Rebecca C. Lewis, Kate Lisa and Sahalie Donaldson
Oct. 19 – Why did Bruce Blakeman go 100% MAGA?
Once a prototypical Long Island Republican moderate, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman has leaned into his closeness to Donald Trump in recent years, modeling his political style after the combative president. Blakeman has taken lessons from Trump’s bombastic rhetorical style and become a leading conservative figure on culture war issues and public safety, creating what has been criticized as an armed civilian militia and agreeing to establish a first-in-the-nation ban on trans women athletes competing on women’s teams at county facilities. Read more here.
– Rebecca C. Lewis
Oct. 19 – Congressional general election races to watch
Could 2026 be another “blue wave”? The answer could very well be found in New York. From the wealthiest enclaves of Long Island to the remote reaches of Northern New York, control of the House of Representatives will likely come down to a couple dozen battleground districts, including a few in the Empire State. That includes some of the tightest toss-ups, such as Republican Rep. Mike Lawler’s precarious bid to hold onto his Lower Hudson Valley seat, and Democrats’ attempts to do the same in a couple of mercurial Long Island districts. But if there are common themes to these competitive seats – the Trump factor, the copious outside spending, a steady stream of opposition research – they each hold their own eccentricities and colorful characters. City & State broke down everything you need to know about the most competitive congressional general election races in New York. Read more here.

