Ask the experts: Predicting the next 20 years in New York politics

Just how long is 20 years? For City & State, it’s enough time to transform from a startup into a delightful multimedia news organization. In politics, however, it’s a lifetime.

Take the past two decades. We saw the tail end of the state’s last (to date) Republican governor, George Pataki, followed by the brief reigns of Eliot Spitzer – and the scandals that sank him – and David Paterson. We’ve seen the rise and fall of Andrew Cuomo and the ascension of Kathy Hochul, the first woman to lead the state. There’s been the COVID-19 pandemic, which reshaped so much of life as we know it.

New York City has seen four very different mayors, going from billionaire Michael Bloomberg – who’d been a Democrat, then a Republican, then an independent – to Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist who wants to tax the rich. The City Council gained a women majority, growing increasingly representative of the diverse city it serves.

And over the past 20 years, two New Yorkers launched political careers that have made them among the most well known leaders in the entire country: Queens man Donald Trump and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

What better way for City & State to celebrate its own 20th anniversary than to try and predict what to expect from the next two decades?

To help, we reached out to six well-informed consultants, journalists and political experts to get their predictions on what they expect to happen in politics over the course of the next 20 years. They include columnist Ross Barkan, CMW Strategies founder and Managing Partner Michael Woloz and Democratic strategists Amit Singh Bagga, Yvette Buckner, Michael Lange and Shontell Plummer.

After Zohran Mamdani, who will be New York City’s next mayor?

Ross Barkan: I have no idea, but a conventional answer – after a very unconventional mayor – would be Mark Levine, the city comptroller.

Amit Singh Bagga: Zohran’s going to have a second term.

Yvette Buckner: The next mayor should be a woman! After 112 male mayors, it’s time for New York City to follow the lead of other major cities like Boston, Los Angeles and Philadelphia by electing a woman.

Michael Lange: I predict that Zohran Mamdani will serve two terms as mayor. In 2033, I believe the election will be between Chi Ossé and Mark Levine. Obviously, it is hard to guess who will win eight years away, but I think both are well positioned for the city’s future demographic, ideological and coalitional trends.

Shontell Plummer: Donovan Richards. If not him, it will be a person completely under the radar.

Michael Woloz: Mark Levine, Julie Menin and Donovan Richards would all be viable.

After Kathy Hochul, who will be New York’s next governor?

Barkan: If she doesn’t move over to the Senate eventually, it could be Letitia James. If not her, maybe someone who’s in New York City’s congressional delegation right now.

Bagga: If Attorney General Letitia James truly wants it, it’d be hers. The Ryans of the state – Pat, Sean – are contenders if Buffalo can get its money right. Rep. Ritchie Torres has been on a recent journey of reinvention. We’ll see how that plays out. Memories are both short – and long.

Buckner: There is a clear opportunity to elevate someone like Eric Gonzalez – who is widely respected, whip-smart, and well-liked – to a statewide role such as governor, if he does not run for attorney general. Such a move would be pivotal in strengthening Latino representation across New York. Looking ahead, Mayor Zohran Mamdani could be a strong contender if he has two successful terms as mayor of New York City, though history suggests that transitioning between the city and state’s top executive roles is no easy feat.

Lange: Zohran Mamdani. Were he to be convincingly reelected in 2029, he should consider running for governor in 2030 (as Ed Koch did in 1982). However, 2034 is probably a better option (and I doubt Gov. Kathy Hochul would run for another term at age 75 either) with a greater runway. Being mayor of New York City is infamously a dead-end job, but Zohran has transcended precedent before. And he just might do it again.

Plummer: Attorney General Tish James, if she wants it.

Who will win the U.S. Senate seat in 2028 that Chuck Schumer currently holds?

Barkan: I’ll say AOC, assuming she pulls the plug soon enough on a run for president.

Bagga: I’ve never received more fundraising emails and texts from AOC, ever, as I have in the last few weeks. So, you know, that’s a thing. All of our eyes should remain on Chi Ossé. From the weightroom floor to the …

Buckner: If Congressmember Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez chooses to pursue it, she would have a significant advantage – both in her ability to fundraise nationally and in leveraging her strong base of support in New York City to drive votes statewide. I also expect Congressman Ritchie Torres and state Sen. James Skoufis to be serious contenders.

Lange: If AOC wants to run, she can beat anyone. She has the broadest and most adaptable path to victory of anyone in the prospective field.

Plummer: AOC, Ritchie Torres.

After Julie Menin, who will be the New York City Council’s next speaker?

Barkan: Carl Wilson? That council district has launched a lot of speakers.

Bagga: Kayla Santosuosso is remarkably impressive. That election video in Arabic wasn’t a gimmick; it was credible. She’s clearly won the hearts and minds of her purple district while consistently showing up as a progressive and building strong relationships. Also, people like her. That matters!

Buckner: I believe there will be a four-way race between Council Members Shanel Thomas-Henry, Kayla Santosuosso, Justin Sanchez and Virginia Maloney.

Lange: Kayla Santosuosso, Elsie Encarnacion or Justin Sanchez.

Plummer: Shanel Thomas-Henry.

Could a Republican win statewide office in New York in the next 20 years? What would it take for that to happen? Is there a Republican you can see winning statewide office?

Barkan: Unlikely. I don’t see anyone doing it.

Bagga: As if it isn’t painfully obvious, Donald Trump is coming for our elections. All bets on everything are off.

Buckner: There are lessons to draw from Gov. George Pataki’s victory more than 30 years ago, which demonstrated a viable path for a Republican to win statewide after three terms of a Democratic governor. As the state trends more competitive, the possibility of a Republican governor remains real – especially in the post-Trump political landscape.

Lange: I would never rule it out, particularly if the Democratic Party cannot relieve (let alone message around) the economic hardship felt by working people across the state. While the collapse of Donald Trump’s approval (and the continued depopulation of upstate) will keep New York resolutely blue in the near term, Hispanic and Asian voters, the Empire State’s fastest growing demographics, swung against the Democratic Party significantly in 2024. Time will tell whether that happens again. Also, folks know I love Zohran Mamdani, but were he to run for governor, a general election campaign would be very challenging against a moderate Republican.

Plummer: They say never say never, but I think it’s highly unlikely. If there were a Republican who could be elected to statewide office, I would say Mike Lawler.

Woloz: Twenty years ago, Michael Bloomberg was mayor, George Pataki was governor, Republicans led the state Senate and young people in their 20s didn’t care that much about local elections. The politics are very different today. So anything is possible and election swings are cyclical. That said, it’s hard to see how moderate Republicans make a comeback and overcome the damage Trump has inflicted on the party in blue New York, even in 20 years.

Which members of New York’s congressional delegation will still be in office in 20 years?

Barkan: Ritchie Torres, AOC (if not a senator), Grace Meng. If Claire Valdez wins – I think she will – Claire Valdez. Hakeem Jeffries.

Bagga: Grace Meng and Brad Lander.

Buckner: The current political climate is trending toward a new generation of elected leaders, including within Congress. The most likely additions to that cohort will be the eventual successors to seats now held by congressional members Jerry Nadler and Nydia Velázquez as well the winner of the seat currently held by Dan Goldman.

Plummer: Pat Ryan, Tim Kennedy, Grace Meng and the winner of NY-12.

Woloz: I’m going to take this as meaning either their current office or another, presumably higher office. In that case, Ritchie Torres, Tom Suozzi, Hakeem Jeffries and other moderates as well as AOC and the likely winners of NY-12 in Manhattan and NY-7 in Brooklyn/Queens.

What will New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani be doing in 20 years?

Barkan: Some sort of advocacy work. Maybe a senator if he wants to be a senator. But why would he bother?

Bagga: Next hit: “Dadi.”

Buckner: The mayor is likely to remain a prominent national voice – whether through a nightly platform on networks like CNN or MSNBC, a digital media presence or a future role in a presidential administration or federal agency.

Plummer: Running a national nonprofit or serving in the federal government as a Cabinet member.

Lange: Hard to say. In 20 years, I hope Zohran will be resting at home with his family: happily, peacefully and with few regrets. He has a genuine love of life and people, and I hope that never diminishes due to the rigors of the job.

Which New Yorker has the best chance to be elected president sometime in the next 20 years? How likely is that to actually happen?

Barkan: Absent Zohran Mamdani, who cannot, probably AOC, though I think she’s still a long shot. No one else from New York is probably getting elected president.

Buckner: Among current New Yorkers, (House Minority) Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez likely have the clearest national lanes today, while others could emerge depending on how their careers evolve.

Woloz: A celebrity with a massive following on TikTok and Instagram.

Who are a couple of young people not currently in statewide or citywide office who could become future elected power brokers?

Barkan: Alex Pellitteri!

Bagga: You calling us old?

Buckner: Statewide: Assembly Members Chantel Jackson, Landon Dais, Michelle Hinchey and Grace Lee and state Sen. Lea Webb. Citywide: Council Members Crystal Hudson, Kevin Riley, Rita Joseph, Linda Lee, Sandy Nurse and Chi Ossé.

Plummer: Jamaal Bailey, Donovan Richards, Catalina Cruz, Shanel Thomas-Henry, Shaun Abreu.

Lange: The last time you solicited my predictions, I was very bullish on Diana Moreno, and I am proud to say that looked pretty good in retrospect. I see no reason to rein in that optimism. Chi Ossé, mentioned above as a potential mayoral successor, clearly has the work ethic and communications savvy to not only have a bright future, but realize it.

What are the three biggest issues New York must tackle in the next 20 years?

Barkan: The cost of housing (renting and owning alike), climate change and job creation beyond New York City.

Bagga: Rising sea levels, the potential destruction of our economy because of AI and our on-the-brink transportation infrastructure.

Buckner: The more things change, the more they stay the same – affordability, public safety and housing 

Lange: Robert Caro once said that New York’s “great gift to the world” was that “people from all over the world could come here, they could create their own communities, their own neighborhoods.” That community, he said, gave people “a sense of belonging.” This community is “the basis of human endeavor, because if people feel that they belong, they can go on to other things.” I think about those words all the time, and it brings me great sadness. Because at this crucial moment in our history, New York is not the home it once was. So many people, integral to what New York is, have had to leave – and not by choice. If we cannot make it more affordable to live here (housing, childcare, healthcare, utilities), our great city and beautiful state will become a museum. And a memory.

Plummer: Affordability (housing costs, college, healthcare, etc.), creating and keeping jobs in the state and climate change

Woloz: Housing, climate change and racism/antisemitism.