Opinion: The kids are alright

As someone who has run four criminal and juvenile justice departments in three jurisdictions under five different administrations, I have seen more than my share of harm come to, and be committed by, people –  young and old.

That’s why I find it understandable when elected and appointed leaders from President Donald Trump, to Gov. Kathy Hochul, to Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch call for trying more teenagers as adults.

Understandable, but still bad public policy.

We have seen this movie before. During the 1990s, following a spike in youth and adult violence, nearly every state made it easier to try juveniles as adults. The results were disastrous. The number of young people tried as adults mushroomed nationally to around a quarter million annually. During that time, New York was among the states trying the most young people as adults, and yet the city experienced the worst violent crime in its history.

A 2007 systemic review of research by the Centers for Disease Control found that, on average, trying children as adults increased their likelihood of reoffending by 34%. One youth explained why: “When I was in juvenile programs, they were telling me that I am somebody and that I can change my ways and get back on the right tracks. In here (the adult criminal justice system), they tell me I am nobody and I never will be anybody.”

Based on research like this, New York policymakers raised the age of the state’s juvenile courts from 16 to 18 for most offenses in 2018, making it one of the last states to do so. Some have blamed a purported rise in youth crime on the Raise the Age law, implying that it has grown in excess of adult crime since the law’s enactment.  Since nothing strikes more fear in the hearts of politicians than looking soft on crime, there is a real chance that New York policymakers might try to increase the number of 16 and 17-year-olds who are prosecuted as adults during this legislative session.

But there is no adolescent crime wave, tabloid headlines notwithstanding.

Young people make up a small and declining share of violent crime arrests in the city, lower than they did prior to the enactment of Raise the Age. In 2017, juveniles accounted for 14.2% of violent crime arrests in New York City. By 2023, youth accounted for 10.2% of violent crime arrests.

This mirrors what has happened nationally. Between 2000 and 2022, there was a 75% decline in the number of young people incarcerated in juvenile facilities. Likewise, between 2000 and 2022, half of all states, including New York, passed laws reducing mandates to try children as adults, leading to an 84% decline in the number of youth confined in adult jails and prisons nationally.

For those suggesting a more punitive approach to youth crime, these sharp declines should augur a youth crime disaster.

But exactly the opposite happened. Youth crime actually fell nationally by a whopping 80% from 1996 to 2020, and it fell more than it has for adults whose incarceration rate has declined more modestly. For example, arrests of juveniles declined by 78% from 1995 to 2024, while arrests of adults ages 25 and above dropped by only 19%.

The one area where there has been an alarming increase in crime among youth in New York City is in the serious violent felony offense categories of murder, attempted murder and first-degree robbery. The number of youth arrested for such crimes is still small – 344 arrests out of 1.7 million youth under age 18 in 2024 – but it has more than doubled from 136 such arrests in 2018. 

But nothing in New York’s Raise the Age law changed how teenagers charged with serious violent felonies are prosecuted – they go to adult court where adult sentencing applies. Ironically, lowering the age at which teenagers are tried as adults would affect adolescents accused of less serious crimes whose crime rates are dropping more than adults since Raise the Age was enacted.

This is not to say that no reforms are necessary. Since the Raise the Age law passed, the state committed to providing $1.5 billion in aid to local jurisdictions for services to the youth newly moved to the juvenile system. As of March 2024, less than one-third of that has been spent, and New York City, which accounts for about half of those in the state’s youth justice system, has received none of it.

It is right for us to be shocked when anyone is the victim of violent crime, whether that is at the hands of an adult or juvenile. So it is all the more important that we express that outrage by carefully examining data on real crime trends and best approaches and by funding programs that help reduce crime and improve outcomes, rather than reaching for bromides that temporarily make us feel better, while the problem continues to fester beneath the surface.