Sean Ryan dominates Democratic mayoral primary in Buffalo

State Sen. Sean Ryan might have himself a new job next year after winning the Buffalo Democratic mayoral primary over Acting Mayor Chris Scanlon and a field of challengers on Tuesday. The state lawmaker took in 46.45% of votes in the primary with all precincts reporting, which could change the tides of power in western New York.

Ryan’s victory was built on a message of change and framed the incumbent Scanlon as a continuation of former Mayor Byron Brown’s lengthy and sometimes divisive administration, which ended abruptly when Brown left City Hall to take a job leading Western Regional OTB. 

Ryan eventually took the stage last night in a packed theatre district, performance art venue, and greeted a buzzing crowd. “We’ve gotta make Buffalo a better place,” he said.

Ryan later told reporters that he planned to parlay his relationships in state government as well as his outsider status with City Hall to bring people together and get things done, though he acknowledged it wouldn't necessarily be straightforward. 

“All those levers of government are going to be very helpful to make it so Buffalo is the most efficient government possible, but also one that can help fund the needs that we have,” he said. “We're going to dig ourselves out of a deep financial hole. It's not going to happen overnight. Somebody's telling you they got a magic button for all this. There's no magic button. It's going to be a tough few years, but I'm confident that, if you're straightforward, honest with the people of Buffalo, tell them what the plan is, they're going to join in, because that's what we do in Buffalo. We all come together.”

Across town, Scanlon conceded the primary, but he may still run for office as an independent, something his predecessor proved was a realistic strategy after winning a write-in campaign in 2021. The situation was somewhat different, though, as Brown’s campaign saw him cash in decades of relationships in Buffalo’s Democratic infrastructure as well as in neighborhoods he’d represented before. There was also the matter of India Walton’s image changing as her socialist leanings became clearer. Scanlon would also face a field with more than just Ryan in it, as Michael Gainer will run as an independent after getting kicked off the Democratic ballot and Republican James Gardner is launching a campaign in the general election.

Assembly Member Jonathan Rivera co-chaired Ryan’s campaign and said he isn’t concerned about the possibility of a loaded general given the margin of victory Tuesday night. Ryan led Scanlon by more than 11 points when it was all said and done.

“I really do believe the way that we moved in this campaign is going to lead to Democrats coming on board,” Rivera told City & State, “and I'm confident that there are folks that were perhaps on the sidelines, folks that were in the race even, and they're of the belief that we have to continue to make our party strong and make our city strong, and that means getting to work.”

Assembly Majority Leader Crystal Peoples-Stokes, who leads Buffalo’s delegation in the state Legislature, was a strong supporter of Scanlon and someone who has had friction with Ryan in the past. On Tuesday, she said she was worried that a Ryan win might mean the city’s Democratic Party could lose some of its independence since Erie County Democratic Committee Chair Jermey Zellner got behind Ryan early, as did many of the area's other elected officials. It wasn’t that long ago that the county party endorsed Leecia Eve for state attorney general, while Peoples-Stokes and Brown were among the few elected officials in the region who backed Letitia James.

Zellner, however, said that the county party’s support was due to Ryan’s outreach to committee members around the time of his announcement. 

“Senator Ryan went out and met people at their houses, knocked on their doors, talked to them in freezing cold weather, asked them what their concerns were,” he said. “A lot of the feedback I was getting was that he was the candidate that could bring the change we need in city hall and that he'd bring a fresh perspective, not someone from City Hall who's seen the last 12 budgets like the mayor is right now.”

If all this support turns into a general election win (a likely scenario since the city hasn’t had a Republican mayor since the 1960s), there’s still the question of a special election next spring to fill his state Senate seat. 

Ryan said he is not afraid that Republicans could flip the seat and he has no preference for a replacement, but there are a few names that would make sense. Rivera could follow the same trajectory as Ryan and turn his tenure in the overlapping Assembly district into a career in the state Senate. Assembly Member Bill Conrad could also run given his proximity to the district. 

“I think the both of them bring a lot to the table,” political consultant Jack O’Donnell told City & State. “They've also shown they can run effective campaigns, because while this is a democratic leaning seat, with some of the suburbs and some of the politics at play it could, in the future, be a competitive seat.”

Conrad said he’s already been approached with support for the seat, just a day after Ryan’s primary victory. He said he’s aware of Rivera showing interest and Zellner’s name has also come up. He also suggested that Assembly Member Karen McMahon could make sense as Ryan’s replacement. Right now, Conrad said, he loves his district and everything he’s been able to achieve while in the Assembly, though he noted that things can change.

“I can't say that I wouldn't be interested either. I can't throw that aside, you know, but that's where I'm at right now,” he said. “I mean it's a fun conversation, but it's something that, honestly, I put it away in my head until after this election, and now it's time to kind of think about it.”