The way-too-early 2026 gubernatorial election preview

Upcoming Democratic mayoral primaries in New York City, Albany, Buffalo and beyond got you stressed? Looking to turn your attention elsewhere for a little while and unwind? Try thinking about a different election that’s a year away! It’s never too early to begin contemplating the race for New York’s governor, at least in our book. It may be far from a boiling point, but the heat has been turned up as Gov. Kathy Hochul’s first official opponent has announced and chatter about others has only increased. The field is still in flux, but the rumor mill is strong. We took a look at the top contenders who have either already entered the race or are publicly weighing the prospect so that you too can begin contemplating the next fight for New York state way too early.

Gov. Kathy Hochul

Home base: Buffalo, Albany and New York City

Political positioning: Hochul has solidly established herself as a moderate Democrat. Although she used to be more conservative back in her Erie County clerk days, Hochul has moved to the left as her profile has risen – though she is hardly a progressive by any means. She has taken strong stances on public safety, holding up the state budget multiple times in order to win rollbacks to criminal justice reforms, drawing the ire of many left-wing legislators. Hochul has evolved on immigration and now defends a state law permitting undocumented immigrants to obtain driver’s licenses, which she had opposed. Hochul has used some strong rhetoric with Trump, but she has also repeatedly expressed a desire to work with him and a willingness to partner on issues like deporting criminal immigrants and renovating Penn Station. She even seemed open to renaming the station after him.

Strengths: Incumbency and money. While being the incumbent hasn’t always protected the governor of New York, it’s still easily the biggest advantage to have in any race. Just look at how Hochul is campaigning off of victories in the recent state budget, including one-time checks that will go to most voters this fall. And no one in state history has fundraised like her. Just as former Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s prodigious war chest made it hard to compete with him, Hochul’s basically guarantees a cash advantage over any opponent.

Weaknesses: Incumbency comes with downsides too. In Hochul’s case, she’s not very popular. Although her poll numbers have increased slightly in recent months and voters have said they like her agenda, her favorability has still lagged. A lackluster 2022 showing that saw then-Rep. Lee Zeldin come within single digits of unseating her in the general election did not inspire confidence, and there’s even concern in some Democratic circles that Hochul could cost the party the governorship.

Can she win the primary? Right now, Hochul is the best-positioned candidate to win the Democratic primary. Polling has her trouncing her announced and potential opponents, even as voters have said they want someone different.

Can she win the general election? That’s the multimillion-dollar question. No public head-to-head polling has pitted Hochul against a potential Republican challenger, so it’s hard to game out this early. The state shifted to the right last year in the presidential election, but with Trump in the White House and Republicans controlling Congress, conventional wisdom points to the midterms being favorable to Democrats.

When will she announce? Hochul has been in the game since her last election, despite rumors last year that she was seeking a job in the second Biden administration.

Possible lieutenant governor: Hochul will likely look downstate to even out her ticket because even if she claims New York City now, she’s still a Buffalonian at her core. Assembly Member Brian Cunningham’s name has been floated, who would balance the ticket both in terms of race and gender, while representing the vote-rich borough of Brooklyn. There is also chatter about state Sen. Nathalia Fernandez, a pick that could create a historic all-female ticket while also boosting Hochul with Latino voters, a demographic she has struggled with.

What’s her deal? She can be unpredictable at times, making monumental decisions like pausing congestion pricing seemingly out of the blue and throwing curveballs late in state budget negotiations.

Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado

Home base: Schenectady and Rhinebeck

Political positioning: Delgado can be read as moderate by New York City standards, but he began his political career by riding a progressive wave into Congress that was fueled by discontent during the first Trump administration. He’s expected to pick up where he left off and assume a platform built around populist messaging and progressive policies, with buzzy phrases like “universal health care” already cropping up in his campaign. In fact, expanding the state’s social safety net appears to be a major priority for him, and he has called for increased spending on housing programs and child care, and even raising the state’s minimum wage. But while he plans to run to the left of Hochul and the administration that he is still technically serving in, he’s still an upstate Democrat who previously represented a congressional district that included plenty of Republican areas, and he would naturally be able to moderate his stances.

Strengths: Delgado will be able to call upon the state’s network of progressive organizations as he charts a left-leaning path. What those groups lack in financial might, they make up for in sheer organizing power. While organizing across wide swaths of rural and suburban New York can sound tricky, he did it before when he unseated former Rep. John Faso. And now that he’s been iced out of the Hochul administration, he can more easily distance himself from the governor’s more controversial policies. Plus, he has plenty of free time to campaign.

Weaknesses: Delgado has virtually no support from New York’s Democratic establishment. Most of the individual Democratic county chairs have already come out in support of Hochul, though he managed to peel off a handful from his old district. He can’t even count on the support of Rep. Pat Ryan, who currently represents him in Congress and who was something of a brother-in-arms during the last election cycle. Key stakeholders across the state are thankful for the local funding and initiatives they’ve received from Hochul and will likely be wary of alienating her. Delgado faces a steep financial disadvantage against the governor, whose fundraising has been consistent and strong. And his attempts to attack Hochul could be complicated by the fact that he’s still drawing a six-figure paycheck from her administration.

Can he win the primary? Hochul hasn’t been polling all that well, but at least voters have heard of her. If Delgado can fundraise like crazy and boost his name recognition downstate, then he could have a shot. One upside of being relatively anonymous to most New Yorkers is that he still has the chance to build a compelling narrative around himself.

Can he win the general election? If he somehow managed to win the primary, he would have a good shot running against a far-right candidate like Rep. Elise Stefanik or Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman. But against a moderate like Rep. Mike Lawler, he could be forced to appeal to the center in a way that would alienate his progressive supporters.

When will he announce? Delgado formally announced he was running in early June, ending speculation that began after he publicly broke with Hochul months earlier. He’s the first candidate, Democrat or Republican, to announce a challenge to Hochul.

What’s his deal? Delgado is someone who isn’t cut out to be a No. 2. Some see his decision to run as arrogant or foolish, but as a former Rhodes scholar, he just thinks he knows what’s best for New York.

Rep. Ritchie Torres

Home base: The Bronx

Political positioning: Torres would run in a similar lane as Hochul as a public safety moderate. Once staunchly progressive, he has long since moved to the center, leaving the Congressional Progressive Caucus and criticizing his former allies for supporting policies like bail reform and being soft on antisemitism. Following Trump’s election, Torres began loudly criticizing Hochul for everything from crime and disorder in the subways to her decision to pause congestion pricing and what he saw as her unwillingness to combat antisemitism – though he has been quieter in recent weeks. Torres is easily the most outspoken Democratic supporter of the Israeli government in the House.

Strengths: He may not be a household name across the state, but Torres is young, ambitious and a talented communicator. For New Yorkers who are unhappy with Hochul but still desire a moderate Democrat who can work with Republicans, Torres could offer an appealing alternative. He is also incredibly popular among the state’s powerful blocs of Jewish voters – and not just in New York City. Speaking of which, Torres could be the only candidate in the Democratic primary from New York City.

Weaknesses: Torres is a polarizing figure who has burned bridges with much of the left flank of the Democratic Party and the progressive organizers who initially helped elevate him to the City Council. He is also the only rumored Democratic candidate who has not already held a statewide position, and his current role in Congress does not lend itself to traveling around the state.

Can he win the primary? Torres is a strong fundraiser who can rely on support from the cryptocurrency industry, which could make him competitive with Hochul while drawing away voters from their shared pool of support. And as an Afro-Latino official from the Bronx – the same borough where the governor said Black kids don’t know the word computer – he could appeal more to groups that Hochul struggles with. But it can be tough to run to Hochul’s right in a three-way primary. Just ask Rep. Tom Suozzi, who finished third in 2022 behind both Hochul and New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams.

Can he win the general election? Like any Democrat, Torres stands to benefit from anti-Trump sentiment and a Republican Congress during a midterm election. He could win moderate and conservative Jewish voters who may have broken for Republicans in recent years in ways that neither Hochul nor Delgado could – though he may be in for a tough fight for those votes against the Republican nominee.

When will he announce? Torres recently said on a podcast that he would make a decision on whether to run after the New York City mayoral race. He also said that a victory by former Gov. Andrew Cuomo is “a necessary condition for running for governor,” so the outcome of the Democratic primary could give an earlier indication on what Torres will do. He faces a significant risk as a run means he must give up his seat in Congress.

What’s his deal? Torres is a hungry politician. At the time, he was the youngest person ever elected in New York City when he won a City Council seat in 2013 before jumping at the opportunity to run for higher office. He has long been rumored to be planning a run for governor or the U.S. Senate when the time was right. So whether he runs now or waits for a different chance, Torres surely won’t be content to grow old in his current seat.

Rep. Elise Stefanik

Home base: Schuylerville and the North Country

Political positioning: Rep. Elise Stefanik is a MAGA truther who moves in the upper echelons of the Washington, D.C., Republican hierarchy. She supports mass deportations, defunding public media and ending access to gender-affirming care. She wants to defund public media, decries the prevalence of diversity, equity and inclusion in schools and organizations, questions climate change and the efficacy of clean energy, and opposes New York’s recent criminal justice reform initiatives. Though divisive in New York, Stefanik is one of the leading conservative voices in the nation and a favorite of President Donald Trump.

Strengths: She would begin her campaign as the unquestioned front-runner in a Republican primary. Similar to Hochul, she commands a level of fear and respect – with Trump’s backing – across the state, and most Republicans can be expected to fall in line. Given her national profile, she could easily adapt her national political operation for a statewide race and command impressive fundraising. Aside from the Hudson Valley, upstate New York is hers to lose, and she could even score a Trump endorsement and appearance during her race.

Weakness: Given her omnipresence in national politics and media, there isn’t a scenario where she can play herself off as a moderate during her race. She may not need to, but public opinion may continue to turn against the Trump administration’s policies, and that inability to pivot could hurt her. She also has a less-than-stellar reputation in New York City, which could become a bigger issue down the line.

Can she win the primary? The latest polls say yes. Between her campaign cash and her political operation, she’s likely to win, and that’s even before a Trump endorsement.

Can she win the general election? She would likely stay competitive with moderate Democrats like Hochul and Torres, but ultimately, an inability to win over voters in New York City could prove to be a problem. Her only hope would be to capitalize on a shift toward the right in the outer boroughs, but it’s just as likely she falls victim to a Trump backlash.

When will she announce? Stefanik is expected to announce after the November election but before the end of the year, after gathering more information and surveying the political field.

What’s her deal? Few seem to enjoy dunking on liberals more than Stefanik. She began her career as a moderate, but now MAGA fits her like a glove. Where Trump is concerned, she’s the consummate team player, but otherwise, she comes from the New York politics mold of doing whatever it takes to get what she wants. She seems made for Albany, which makes sense since she grew up in the county.

Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman

Home base: Long Island

Political positioning: From his first day in office as Nassau County executive, Bruce Blakeman has made headlines for being an outspoken MAGA Republican. Frequently appearing alongside President Donald Trump, Blakeman is clearly trying to appeal to the party’s base. He has positioned himself at the center of the culture war around transgender rights by signing a bill banning women’s sports teams with trans athletes from using county facilities. Blakeman has also enacted other controversial policies, including the creation of a unit of “special deputies” consisting of armed civilian volunteers. More recently, Blakeman formalized Nassau’s relationship with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement by signing a 287(g) agreement that permits some local law enforcement officers to act as ICE agents. Nassau County was the first municipality in New York to sign such an expansive agreement with ICE – a signal that Blakeman plans to take a hard-line approach to immigration.

Strengths: He oversees a historically purple area of the state with a large population, and the last Long Island Republican who ran against Hochul came within 6 points of defeating her. Blakeman also has strong appeal to his party’s MAGA base, which will benefit him in the primary. Most importantly, he would not have to give up his current job to run for governor, and a Blakeman run wouldn’t endanger the GOP’s thin majority in the House.

Weaknesses: Some of those strengths, like Blakeman’s ability to appeal to the conservative base in a primary, could hurt him in a general election. Despite some rightward shifts in the state in recent elections, far-right Republicans have trouble winning statewide. While former Rep. Lee Zeldin ran as an unabashed Trump supporter, that was while a Democrat was in the White House. Blakeman is just as far to the right, if not further, in a way that is less likely to perform well in next year’s midterms. Like other candidates, he also suffers from fairly low name recognition statewide.

Can he win the primary? Before Rep. Elise Stefanik began considering a run for governor, Blakeman probably would have been favored in head-to-head primary with Rep. Mike Lawler because of his appeal to the MAGA base. But Stefanik has a similar appeal to Blakeman and much higher name recognition, narrowing Blakeman’s potential path to victory.

Can he win the general election? Blakeman’s ability to connect with primary voters would likely make it hard for him to moderate his message for the general election. And his potential inability to navigate that shift could hurt him in the general election.

When will he announce? Blakeman hasn’t said publicly that he is seriously considering a run for governor, but he hasn’t ruled it out either. Any decision he makes is expected to come after his own race this year. Blakeman is widely expected to win reelection, and his margin of victory will likely inform his thinking about running statewide.

What’s his deal?: As Trump once said about Blakeman, he looks like your classic politician straight out of central casting, and he plays that up big time. Blakeman likes to make news, ruffle feathers and be in the limelight in a way that is not always typical of a county executive. As the person with the least to lose among the potential contenders on both sides, he seems like he just loves the game, whether that ends with him as governor, continuing in his current role or maybe even heading to Washington, D.C., to join the Trump administration.

Rep. Mike Lawler

Home base: Rockland County

Political positioning: As one of the most bipartisan lawmakers in the House, Rep. Mike Lawler runs as a commonsense moderate and legislates the same way, though being in the House majority doesn’t leave much room for nuance and he’s currently getting raked over the coals in local town halls due to his support for cuts to Medicaid and other federal benefits. The majority of his rhetoric is focused on his Lower Hudson Valley swing district, which is an even mix of urban and suburban, and he prefers to talk about policies like cutting taxes and securing the border. Like all Republicans, he hates everything associated with Albany Democrats, and you should expect to hear the words “cashless bail” a lot if he jumps into the race.

Strengths: A former strategist for the state GOP, Lawler is known for running savvy political campaigns. Between electioneering and shaping narratives that lead him back to the center in voters’ minds, he’s been able to hold on to his seat in a district where Democrats have a voter registration advantage. He is especially well-liked in the Jewish community.

Weaknesses: His name recognition outside of his district is less than ideal, and some strategists have quipped that most voters are likely to hear his name for the first time in attack ads. Trump seemingly threw cold water on his gubernatorial prospects when he endorsed his reelection bid rather than a run for governor.

Can he win the primary? If he does, it will be tight. His political track record makes him hard to count out, but between a middling statewide profile and the tricks Stefanik might have up her sleeve, it won’t be a cake walk. He’s at immediate risk of being outfundraised, but he’s been a frequent cable TV news guest for years. The main problem he faces is framing his moderate image within his own party to appeal to more conservative voters outside of his district. If he can toe that line, he could do all right.

Can he win the general election? If Lawler makes it to the general election, he’s the best-positioned Republican to flip the governor’s seat. His history of appealing to voters in blue districts could carry over to the entirety of the state. However, he’ll have to spend an awkward few months answering for Medicaid cuts and other things the Trump administration does over the next year.

When will he announce? Lawler is expected to announce later this month whether he will run for governor.

What’s his deal?: Lawler loves a good tussle even within his own party, but what he loves even more than that is appearing to be the smartest person in the room.