Exit poll: Public safety tops voter concerns, but NYC Dems reject policing-first approach

Polling showed that public safety was a major concern for people leading up to the Democratic mayoral primary.  In response, several candidates made restoring a sense of safety a top priority for their campaigns. One of the main lines of attack from Andrew Cuomo was that his opponent Zohran Mamdani didn’t take crime seriously enough, that he previously supported defunding the police.

But results from an exit poll of voters released this week showed that primary voters preferred victor Mamdani’s approach to the issue. Two in three people surveyed listed crime and public safety, along with homelessness, as one of the biggest issues facing New York City today – behind the high cost of living and housing costs.  While Cuomo focused on a gloomy message about a city in crisis, Mamdani was able to connect crime and disorder to affordability, according to advocates.

 ”What Mamdani did in this race was he made safety, quality of life, a core part of his broader message of affordability. He didn't place it in a silo,” said Vera Action program director Alana Sivin. The group counseled several campaigns on their public safety plans, including Cuomo’s and Mamdani’s. “He very consistently linked safety to affordability by saying that higher costs and rising prices are connected to voters' feelings of being unsafe.”

The survey of 1,136 actual primary voters was conducted between June 23 and June 27 by Change Research. Respondents were reached through text messages and direct marketing ads on social media. The poll has a 3.3% margin of error. Of the voters surveyed, 43% ranked Mamdani No. 1 on their ballots – which paralleled actual election night results. It was commissioned by Vera Action, the political arm of the Vera Institute of Justice – a criminal justice reform advocacy organization.  

The exit poll showed that voters overwhelmingly preferred an increase in social services and other programs over a get tough on crime approach.  When asked to choose which idea more closely aligns with their views, 75% of the respondents felt that the better way to address crime and safety was to increase “treatment for mental health and drug addiction and getting illegal guns off the street.” Just 25% felt that giving more resources to police, tougher sentences for people convicted of violent crimes and strengthening bail laws was the way to go. 

While campaigning, Cuomo pointed out that he was the governor who signed bail reforms into law, saying that the policies, “Righted a terrible social wrong.” He also said he would add 5,000 officers to the NYPD and called for keeping repeat offenders behind bars. Mamdani’s central public safety proposal is a pitch to launch a “Department of Community Safety,” which would handle mental health concerns, leaving just dangerous crimes and investigations under police purview. Mamdani said he could cut the police overtime budget and eliminate the controversial Strategic Response Group, but walked back previous use of the slogan “defund the police” saying, “I will not defund the police. I will work with the police because I believe the police have a critical role to play in creating public safety.” He has said he wants to maintain the existing NYPD headcount.

The poll’s respondents felt that Mamdani would do a better job handling a number of issues, selecting him at a rate of 2 to 1 when it came to topics like immigrant rights, racism and racial justice, housing costs and homelessness. But, when it came to crime and public safety, voters were evenly split on who they would trust more to address the issue.  ”This was particularly interesting, that voters said they trusted Mamdani and Cuomo equally on crime,” Sivin said.  

Drilling further down into public safety, a majority of voters felt that expanding mental health care services, drug addiction programs and community-based crime prevention programs would be the most effective solutions for reducing crime. Three out of four respondents checked the box on that approach. Only 23% felt that stricter penalties and longer prison sentences for convicted criminals would make a difference.

During the campaign, Cuomo’s allies painted Mamdani as being soft on crime. A Cuomo aligned PAC, Fix the City, paid for ads that referenced his use of the phrase “defund the police” in the past.  Sivin said the poll results show that those ads had little to no impact. “They just really fell flat,” Sivin said. “He was able to win over voters by really taking safety seriously and putting a new brand on what it means to create safety for New Yorkers in a way that is comprehensive.”

Before the primary, Vera Action briefed almost all of the Democratic campaigns on crime and public safety in New York, as well as issues surrounding immigration and homelessness. A spokesperson said the organization gave feedback to five campaigns on their crime and public safety policies, including Cuomo’s and Mamdani’s.

Cuomo’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.