Can Democrats hold onto this North Country Assembly seat?

Former Assembly Member Billy Jones' last day in office was this past Friday, but his resignation’s effect on North Country politics and state government has been felt for weeks. Committee chairs have been shuffled, and a special election will soon be called to fill his 115th Assembly District seat. 

The special election will be one of Republicans’ better pick-up opportunities in New York, assuming they can play nice after a fraught candidate selection process. But Democrats are confident they will be able to hold on to the seat, which has long been an outlier in the region, and possibly even carry that momentum over to a campaign to replace Rep. Elise Stefanik, should she vacate her seat and run for governor. 

The district covers Clinton, Franklin and Essex counties and lies within Stefanik’s 21st Congressional District. Stefanik and Clinton County Republican Chair Jerika Manning had a very public dispute over the preferred nominee for the seat, with Stefaniik preferring Malone Mayor Andrea Dumas to Manning’s pick of State Police Commander Brent Davison. Franklin County Republicans also prefer Dumas. 

Democrats in the district selected Plattsburgh Town Supervisor Michael Cashman as their nominee to replace Jones, although victims’ rights advocate Bridie Farrell was also considering a campaign for the seat. 

Jones was previously considered for a run for Congress on the back of his success in the district, back when it appeared Stefanik would leave to be ambassador to the U.N. He’d won reelection campaigns with comfortable margins, and like other Democratic lawmakers holding office in Republican heavy areas, he touted his bipartisan record and commitment to the region along the way. Cashman has already secured an endorsement from a Republican and may be well on his way to projecting a similar image. 

The special election will likely serve as a referendum on President Donald Trump’s second term, especially since the North Country has been hit hard by Trump’s tariff policies. 

“Any election where there are Democrats and Republicans on the ballot is to some degree going to be a reflection of how the voters feel about national politics, and right now, nothing dominates politics more than the Republican president of the United States, and the things that he is doing,” political strategist Morgan Hook told City & State. 

Hook said that even though the North Country is traditionally fertile ground for the GOP, the party will likely be playing defense this time around. That, and the fact that Cashman has good name recognition in the district’s population center while also being positioned to talk about the effect of federal policies on the area, should give the Democrats an advantage.

If Republicans do manage to flip the seat, Hook said, it would raise real questions about the viability of the Democrats' messaging around a second Trump term.

“If Democrats lose this seat, there should probably be some soul-searching,” Hook said. “I mean, they didn't lose this seat (in 2024). We heard all about all of the huge inroads that Donald Trump made in New York in 2024, and oh my gosh, look how he didn't win this seat.”