Could Jacobs’ refusal to endorse Mamdani help Hochul?

There’s trouble in Democratic paradise – but perhaps not as much as it might appear.

State Democratic Party Chair Jay Jacobs’ decision to offer an anti-endorsement of New York City Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani caused shockwaves in New York last week. After Gov. Kathy Hochul threw her support behind the democratic socialist, Jacobs’ decision to explain why he won’t endorse the candidate fanned the flames of rumors that he would resign from his party position.

Since then, Jacobs has said he has no current plans to resign. And on Friday, he told the New York Post that he alerted the governor of his plan to put out a statement distancing himself from Mamdani. “I am not reckless and I am not disrespectful,” he told the outlet. Jacobs did not offer any additional information or context when reached for comment. But a source with knowledge of the situation told City & State that Hochul did not oppose the idea of an anti-endorsement from her party chair.

While most conventional analysis has suggested that Jacobs’ public break with Hochul indicates a rift among New York Democrats, it could be strategically advantageous for the governor to allow the state party chair to distance himself from Mamdani. In addition to serving as head of the state party Jacobs wears a second hat as the chair of the local Democratic Party committee in Nassau County, an area crucial both for Hochul’s reelection next year and for Democrats’ hopes to win back the House.

And the governor’s Mamdani endorsement did not go over well in those Long Island suburbs, according to a Long Island Democratic source. Both Democratic House members that represent the county – Reps. Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen – went even further than Jacobs in their condemnation of Mamdani, saying that the mayoral nominee shouldn’t even be a member of the Democratic Party and that his democratic socialist ideology doesn’t align with the larger party ideals.

A recent Siena College poll had Hochul winning in the suburbs when pitted against likely GOP candidate Rep. Elise Stefanik. But that poll was conducted before the governor endorsed Mamdani. The Long Island Democratic source said that the next poll should prove interesting in what it reveals about the real-world implications of Hochul’s decision. A spokesperson for the governor did not return a request for comment.

Jacobs’ anti-endorsement could provide cover for the broader party in moderate parts of the state like Long Island and for Jacobs himself as he works to ensure that members of Congress like Suozzi and Gillen get reelected next year in their crucial swing districts. “I wouldn’t be surprised if they have worked out a ‘good cop, bad cop’ situation that allows (Hochul) to protect her left flank in the primary with Delgado and beyond, and lets Jay align with Jeffries and Schumer to keep them competitive in suburban and suburban-like moderate swing districts,” said Lawerence Levy, executive dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University. “(It’s a) pretty delicate dance that I don’t know will work, but I’m not sure if there’s a better way to play it.”

In many ways, Jacobs finds himself in a tough spot as Hochul makes moves to appeal to her party’s progressive wing as significant parts of the base shift leftward. “Jacobs has to protect his candidates on Long Island, where Republicans are already framing themselves as the firewall against New York City socialism,” said Jason Elan, a Democratic consultant based on Long Island. “This episode really highlights the tension inside the Democratic Party between the growing influence of progressives in the city and the electoral realities in the suburbs.”

That doesn’t mean that Jacobs’ anti-endorsement went over well with other members of the Democratic Party in New York. State Senate Deputy Majority Leader Mike Gianaris, who has endorsed Mamdani, called the move “disgraceful” and questioned whether Jacobs should continue leading the state party if he won’t back the candidate chosen by Democratic voters. “If he won’t perform that most basic responsibility of a party leader, what exactly is he doing over there?” Gianaris wrote on X.