State Legislature in store for some major reshuffling

The news that longtime Rep. Jerry Nadler will not seek reelection next year almost immediately led to a bevy of state legislators expressing interest in running for his coveted congressional seat spanning Manhattan’s Upper West and East Sides. Between the earthshaking Nadler announcement, expected legislative exits due to New York City elections and the odd individual case, the state Legislature could be looking at a very different makeup in 2027.

Nadler has represented various versions of his district for over three decades, and it’s no understatement to say that young politicians living within its lines have salivated at the idea of the dean of New York’s congressional delegation finally retiring. Although it historically consisted of both the Upper West Side and Jewish enclaves in Brooklyn, the latest round of redistricting excised Brooklyn and added in the Upper East Side. That change has opened up the pool of potential contenders to Manhattan’s East Side politicians, who are no less hungry than their West Side counterparts but previously would not have considered Nadler’s retirement a path to Congress.

At least three current state lawmakers are already being discussed as potential candidates in what may turn into a highly competitive Democratic primary next June. Assembly Member Micah Lasher, a freshman in the state Legislature from the Upper West Side, has already emerged as a likely frontrunner and is expected to have Nadler’s support. Assembly Member Tony Simone, elected just two years before Lasher, is also exploring the prospect, according to Politico New York. On the other side of Central Park, Assembly Member Alex Bores, another relatively new lawmaker, may be eying a run for the seat himself. More seasoned lawmakers like state Sen. Liz Krueger could also see an opportunity for advancement as well.

In order to take their chances to become a member of Congress, each state lawmaker would need to give up their seat in the Legislature, as one cannot run for two different positions in the same election. Three years ago, redistricting hijinks resulting in a June state legislative primary and an August congressional primary meant that Assembly Member Jo Anne Simon managed to run for reelection despite also running (and losing) in a primary for the newly-drawn 10th Congressional District. But next year, electeds will have no such wonky grace.

Nadler’s decision not to run for reelection will compound the shakeups already promised in the state Legislature thanks to expected local election victories this year. In New York City, state Sen. Brad Hoylman-Sigal’s seat will likely open up in January after he wins the general election for Manhattan borough president. Some of the Assembly members currently eyeing Nadler’s congressional seat, like Simone, could decide to run for Hoylman-Sigal’s seat instead. And Politico New York recently reported that Assembly Member Linda Rosenthal may opt to run for Hoylman-Sigal’s seat as well, which would in turn open up her own seat in the lower chamber. 

Also in Manhattan, Assembly Member Harvey Epstein’s expected entry into the City Council will leave his seat up for grabs for either a political newcomer or a soon-to-be former City Council member like Keith Powers. Over in Queens, a mayoral victory for Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani will mean that his Assembly seat will become open for a special election next year. And up in Buffalo, the expected victory of state Sen. Sean Ryan in the mayoral election in that city will mean a new representative in the state Senate. If local Assembly Members Jonathan Rivera, Bill Conrad or Karen McMahon decide to run for Ryan’s Senate seat, there could be a scramble to replace them as well. 

The likely special elections next year offer a little more leeway as party leaders choose a nominee without a competitive primary forcing others to give up their seats. But a special election win – especially so close to the regularly scheduled primary – does not guarantee that person won’t be challenged later in the year. Just look at the short tenure of former Assembly Member Ari Espinal, elected into and out of office in the same year. Lawmakers who don’t get the party’s blessing may still try their hands with the primary electorate in June next year, which would open up their own seats. 

All of this taken together – along with Assembly Member Jessica Gonzalez-Rojas’ decision to challenge state Sen. Jessica Ramos in a Democratic primary – means that New York could be looking at a very different class of state legislators come 2027. And that’s before any other retirements or insurgent challenges. 

Alex Elmasri, a Democratic consultant with the Parkside Group and former executive director of the state Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, said the energy he’s seeing reminds him of 2018, when Democrats saw major turnover in both chambers. “Heading into 2026, a wave of retirements and open seats points to another big reshuffling, only this time public financing could supercharge it,” Elmasri said. “Once the first domino falls, expect a cascade: Assembly members eyeing Congress, Council members eyeing the Assembly and a fresh class reshaping Albany’s dynamics.”