Mike Lawler might be the only Republican who could win NY-17. Can he do it again?

Archie Kyriacou has never voted in his life, and he’s never wanted to – not for president, and certainly not for Congress.

This time last year, the 50-year-old who owns the Stony Point Family Diner spoke out about safety concerns caused by road closures related to construction of the 339-mile Champlain Hudson Power Express transmission line designed to deliver hydroelectric power from Canada to New York City created severe traffic bottlenecks and hazards that threatened local businesses in the conservative, blue-collar anchor of Rockland County.

Kyriacou called several area officials. Only Rep. Mike Lawler responded, and he arrived to assess the situation 12 hours later. The Republican member of Congress later secured a $1 million relief fund for businesses impacted by the project, which wrapped earlier this year. Kyriacou has yet to see that relief money – applications only just opened – but he’s sold: The lifelong nonvoter plans to cast his first-ever vote for Lawler, joining the lawmaker’s loyal army of moderates and conservatives in the Lower Hudson Valley – one Lawler had built even before he flipped the 17th Congressional District red in 2022.

“I don’t even know if I’m Democrat, I don’t know if I’m Republican, I’m not that guy, you understand?” Kyriacou said the day after City & State accompanied Lawler on a visit to the diner. “I know this guy Lawler shows up. … He showed up when nobody else cared and nobody else would.”

Lawler is certainly counting on that army to come through for him in November. The two-term member of Congress vying for a third is locked in a dead heat with Democrat Cait Conley in the battleground 17th Congressional District, which includes all of Putnam and Rockland counties and parts of Dutchess and Westchester counties. With a new Emerson College Polling/PIX11 News poll released Oct. 1 showing Conley leading Lawler 48%-46% and 7% undecided, the race is among the most closely watched toss-ups in the country, one of a handful that will determine control of the U.S. House of Representatives for the rest of President Donald Trump’s second term. Super PACs – including one funded by Elon Musk backing Lawler – are pouring in money on both sides. Home to many veterans and first responders and one of the largest Jewish populations of any congressional district in the country, the 17th District is famous for being politically fickle. Despite having about 78,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans, the district went for then-Vice President Kamala Harris 49.9%-49.3% over Trump in 2024. Joe Biden won the same district lines by 10 points in 2020.

Incumbency is always an advantage, but this time, a multitude of factors are giving Democratic candidates momentum – especially with independents. Economic concerns remain at the forefront of voters’ minds, Trump’s favorability is dwindling, gas prices continue to surge because of the unpopular war in Iran and the U.S. has stayed divided over how to fix its broken immigration system. That climate naturally gives Conley, a U.S. Army veteran who graduated from the United States Military Academy at West Point and the former director of counterterrorism for the National Security Council under Biden, an additional edge.

Still, this race is moreso Lawler’s to lose than it is Conley’s to win.

As the political momentum in the upcoming midterms appears to be swinging left, Lawler is banking on his self-determining nature and tenacity to keep Conley at bay and hang on to the seat. But Conley is not the only thing standing in his way: There’s also the unpopular president. And Lawler has to balance how to have a healthy relationship with Trump while countering Democrats’ characterization that he’s in the president’s pocket. If he manages to show that his rapport with the president is an asset, Lawler could undercut Conley’s core argument.

Hometown hero

During Lawler’s stop at Kyriacou’s diner in September, a group of college-aged men came in for lunch. They quickly asked Lawler for a photo, eyes wide as if they’d seen a celebrity. Stony Point Supervisor Amy Stamm said that’s not unusual. When the lawmaker visited the town carnival this summer, she said, young children and senior citizens alike crowded around him asking for a picture.

Indeed, New Yorkers in politics have known Lawler, the Suffern-born lawmaker raised in an Italian-Irish Catholic household, for almost 20 years – ever since he was an intern with the state Republican Party who drove around Chair Ed Cox. His family has been in Rockland County for more than a century. And if he doesn’t know your name, chances are, he remembers your father, or his grandfather or uncle worked with yours. His local ties have long been a strength, and this year’s election shouldn’t be an exception.

For Lawler, speaking his mind has always come naturally; as he told City & State in 2023, “From the time I was born and started being able to speak, I have never shut up.” And it’s worked for him.

“Mike was one of those guys at 20 that, when he spoke, everybody listened,” said William F. B. O’Reilly, a conservative strategist who worked on Lawler’s first congressional campaign.

And since, from a stint running former Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino’s unsuccessful gubernatorial campaign to serving in the Assembly and Washington, D.C., Lawler has built a strong wall of support by cementing himself as a nuanced politician who’s unabashedly himself.

One former party leader granted anonymity to speak freely put it this way: “What does it take for a Republican to win in NY-17? You need to be Mike Lawler. There’s no other Republican in NY-17 that could win other than Mike Lawler, and that’s a fact I’ll take to my death bed.”

It’s therefore no accident Lawler has continuously noted Conley is not from the district. It’s what he says he tells undecided voters is the biggest difference between the two of them.

“She owns property in North Carolina and Virginia – she does not own property in New York,” Lawler told City & State during an hour-long interview. “So if you really are committed to this district, why didn’t you sell your home and invest in this community?” (Though Conley was born in the Hudson Valley – albeit outside the district – she only returned to the area from Virginia last year, and she’s quick to point out she spent the bulk of her time away in the Middle East.)

Lawler’s district is a toss-up every election, but with some souring on Trump’s handling of the economy, Democrats see a path to victory, and they’re hoping Conley is the answer.

Trouble in paradise

As much as Lawler has touted last year’s victory in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act with the increased state and local tax deduction – which allows 90% of 17th Congressional District residents to deduct the property and income taxes they pay to state and local governments from their federal tax returns – the spending bill’s cuts to Medicaid stands to hit parts of his district hard. The Center for American Progress has estimated the district would lose $2 billion for healthcare, and the Joint Economic Committee Minority estimates the bill would cause more than 32,000 17th District residents to lose their health insurance. And with higher food, utility and gas prices strapping families, independents and undecided voters are beginning to doubt the Republicans can fix it if they keep the House majority.

“Most people in the middle feel like this isn’t what they were promised,” Putnam County Democratic Committee Chair Jennifer Colamonico said. “He’s crafty and he’s a brilliant communicator, but there’s a sense that his days are numbered … that he’s overplaying his hand.”

The Parkside Group Vice President Alex Elmasri agreed. “(Voters are) going to look at the affordability crisis and ultimately say, ‘Am I going to give Lawler another chance to fix this?’” he said. “Or will they say, ‘His time’s up, we need new energy and new blood?’”

Cortlandt Manor resident Ron Zajick is in the latter camp. He and his wife Susan were among the hundreds who attended the Tarrytown rally for Conley featuring fellow veteran and former U.S. Department of Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, where the air was dense with anger. A Republican, Zajick said he regrets voting for Trump three times and Lawler twice. He began thinking differently about the GOP after this year’s U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement-involved fatalities in Minneapolis. And the couple – who has two daughters on Medicaid, one of whom has special needs – is angry Lawler voted for the cuts. “He’s a liar – he’s a Trump clone,” Zajick said.

And even as Lawler is well-known locally, he and his staff have been the subject of a few negative headlines over the past term. Lawler held numerous raucous town halls throughout the district last year, and received even more pushback when constituents were removed from them. His Deputy District Director Erin Crowley, a Putnam County legislator, allegedly threatened to use top White House official Dan Scavino to pressure Putnam County Sheriff Brian Hess to reinstate her husband as his deputy. Three sources familiar with the situation told City & State that Lawler staffers berated Orthodox Jewish constituents who made irate social media posts about Lawler, pledging not to vote for him after walking miles to attend the Trump-Lawler rally in May, only to be denied entry (Lawler said he had no knowledge of any alleged staff actions). The lawmaker also took heat for defending Ohio Rep. Max Miller, who was accused of domestic violence, and refused to return a $10,000 campaign donation from Miller's PAC.

Conley is looking to seize the moment.

“He is not an effective legislator, he is an effective con artist,” she told City & State. “Lawler’s legacy is going to be that he got paid while we got screwed.”

Conley has never been a legislator herself, but has three Bronze Stars after six tours overseas. Her cybersecurity and foreign policy chops could carry a lot of weight in a district with a significant number of veterans and first responders.

“We don’t need more political operatives and lobbyists,” Conley said, giving a nod to Lawler’s background lobbying for a group aligned with utility companies. “Mike Lawler and the politicians who got this country in this mess we are in are not going to be the ones who get us out of it and make sure our best days are still ahead of us.”

But just like a successful marriage, a strong representative of a battleground district has to be good at the dance. And Lawler’s got moves. Party leaders and Lawler’s past Albany colleagues describe him as driven, smart and a master of political strategy. One former Albany colleague said Lawler has a natural grasp of polling and data envied by longtime lawmakers. “He’s a political animal,” they said.

The Trump card

As she offers voters a chance to reject the status quo, Conley won’t let them forget Lawler and Trump have a largely solid relationship.

That partnership is a frequent theme in Conley’s campaign ads. Buttigieg gave it a nod during the Sept. 16 rally. “I know that a lot of people believed the president when he said he was going to drain the swamp,” he said. “So how’s that going?”

Conley routinely calls out Lawler for “voting with Trump 100% of the time” – citing a VoteHub tool statistic showing how frequently members of Congress voted with the president in 2025. But that analysis doesn’t include every piece of legislation. Lawler voted in support of Trump’s agenda on 94% of recorded votes in 2025, according to an analysis by CQ Vote Watch, while VoteView determined Lawler’s party alignment score rose from 81% for 2023-2024 to 92% since 2025. 

Conley argues Lawler’s repeated backing of the Iran war and the president’s controversial tariffs, which have increased costs for consumers, shows he’s fighting for special corporate interests and Trump – not Hudson Valley families.

But Conley and her opponents in the Democratic primary this spring were advised not to solely campaign on anti-Trump rhetoric. Even so, bucking the president and his agenda remain a central focus of Conley’s message as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spends big on the race with TV ads.

That plays right into Lawler’s strategy. As the Conley campaign attempts to paint him as Trump’s guy in New York, Lawler has been able to toe the line, rejecting that idea while instead marketing himself as one of the few Republicans who can go head-to-head with the party leader when necessary.

Lawler started his recent speech at the Republican Party’s first-ever midterm convention by making it clear that he and Trump do not agree on everything, and referred to his “very public fight” with the president over SALT. But then he pivoted to note his successful negotiating with Trump on the issue, throwing in his own impression of the president. And the impression – which Lawler has done before and, frankly, is a good one – is not only funny and disarming, and until recently, was not something many Republicans had the guts to do. But it works for him.

In other words: Lawler has been able to both distance himself from the president and show he can be a foil to Trump when needed, all while deploying his sense of humor in the process. And as long as Conley continues to hammer him for his alliance with Trump, Lawler will be able to keep making this argument.

That’s not to say Conley is the only one demonizing a divisive political figure to score points. Lawler also invokes New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, when talking about the threat coming from the left. “I’m the only thing standing in the way of Zohran Mandani to Kathy Hochul and everything in between,” he said. “My ability is not just obviously to deal with federal issues, but also to push back on state issues and give a voice to folks in the center, and conservative Democrats and Republicans – I think that matters.”

But an indifferent Lawler also said he’s “probably” called Conley a socialist before – suggesting he knows the strategy won’t work particularly well with a moderate Democrat like her. And only about a week later, did Conley tell PIX11 she declined Mamdani’s help in her tight race. Still, that didn’t stop him from pushing her to denounce Mamdani during News12’s Sept. 28 debate (which she dodged each time).

Center stage

Cait Conley isn’t exactly who Mike Lawler pictured himself standing on a debate stage with a year ago. Hochul is more who he had in mind, as he had aspirations of running for governor and polled competitively against her.

But on Sept. 28, there Lawler was, debating Conley in News12’s Nyack studio. And its tenor was emblematic of how the race has been so far: ugly.

No matter the topic, Conley and Lawler came back to their chief attacks on each other. On the rare occasions when Conley didn’t revert back to saying Lawler “voted with Trump 100% of the time,” (often followed by a smiling, dismissive Lawler saying, “You keep saying that” and a collapse into heated back-and-forth) the incumbent clung to painting Conley as a carpetbagger, which also led to uncontained bickering.

If the debate showed anything – as the next one on Oct. 14 likely will too – it’s that Conley does agree with Trump on something: Lawler’s a persistent pain in the ass. And maybe voters have had enough of it, but even if Conley wins, and even if Lawler opts after that not to run for the House again – he told City & State he wouldn’t – it likely won’t be the last we see of him: Lawler said he’s open to launching a bid for governor in a different political climate.

But those both remain hypothetical for now, at least, as long as both Lawler and Conley stick to their scripts. And if they do, we’re in for a long four weeks.