New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio has rarely said no to a political challenge. He ran for City Council speaker, for public advocate, for mayor and even for president of the United States of America – with a mixed record of success. Now, a new opportunity has presented itself, with the June 2022 Democratic primary for governor. The New York Times reported that the mayor’s longtime pollster seemed to be surveying de Blasio’s chances in the race. And Politico New York reported that de Blasio was calling labor leaders to gauge support for a run.
Will he actually do it? Chances are, no. But de Blasio himself hasn’t said much when asked, and has kept his options open. So here’s what he has to consider, as he looks ahead to the race.
Why de Blasio will run:
- He doesn’t have another job lined up. De Blasio is term-limited out of office on Dec. 31, 2021, ending a run of 20 straight years as an elected official. Running for office is what he knows.
- He ran for president. And if he did that, despite pundits – and voters – giving him absolutely no chance of winning, why wouldn’t he run for a slightly more attainable seat?
- He’s got friends in labor. He’s kept up good relations with unions like 1199 SEIU and the Hotel Trades Council. That doesn’t mean they’d support a run – but he’s got a seat at the table.
- It doesn’t hurt to run. Sure, some reputations have been harmed by running (look at Cuomo versus McCall in 2002) but even a loss can often lead to a new job. Just ask Brian Benjamin and Kathryn Garcia.
Why de Blasio won’t run:
- Gov. Kathy Hochul may be a strong incumbent. There might not be much appetite for change among mainstream Democrats, and progressives won’t rally around de Blasio as a lefty alternative.
- De Blasio wouldn’t be a top challenger. Because if Hochul seems beatable then it’s likely that Attorney General Letitia James, New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams and others will be running too – either of whom would probably crush de Blasio among his Central Brooklyn base.
- His wife didn’t run. Though rumors were flying, Chirlane McCray decided against a 2021 run for Brooklyn borough president. Maybe there was no path to victory, but it shows the mayor and his top advisor aren’t desperate to stay in elected office.
- Raising money would be a pain. Dialing donors for dollars once got de Blasio attention from the feds. Fundraising before he left office would be heavily scrutinized, and fundraising after he left would be too late.
- His approval rating has been sinking. Even if things are looking better, just 37% of New Yorkers in this heavily Democratic city approved of their mayor according to a May poll – and that’s worse than last year.
- This could hurt his legacy. De Blasio outlasted Cuomo and seems to be enjoying his job as mayor for the first time in years. History may be kind to de Blasio. Would he want to jeopardize that with a potentially divisive primary run?
He’s a punchline. And it’ll be nearly impossible to shake his loser reputation in eight months of campaigning after eight years as mayor. Mayoral candidate Eric Adams didn’t even want his endorsement. Nobody did.